Author: Joel Wright
Joel has been involved in the markets for the past 10 years. During that time he’s worked in market analysis teams in London, in the financial technology sector in Singapore – working mostly with automated trading tools and algorithms – and most recently he’s been planning FX risk hedging for an SME in Bangkok. Joel has a first-class honours degree in Financial Services and currently writes about foreign exchange for several global businesses.
You can get in touch with Joel via email here or via the contact page
For a portion of 2017, the South Korean won had been Asia’s best performing currency. Over the past month, it has, however, deviated from what has been a stable path for Asian currencies generally.
Between July 27th and Friday’s close, the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Thai baht rose against the dollar by 1.8%, 1.2% and 0.5% respectively, and most other Asian currencies remained little changed, but the Korean won fell by 2.6% – a fall which places the won as Asia’s worst performer during this period. View article >
A near-$2 rise in the price of oil supported the so-called ‘commodities currencies’ on Friday, many of which gained close to a percent against the US dollar and made respectable gains against the euro and Japanese yen.
Oil’s 3.9% rise to $48.74 per barrel (NYMEX crude futures, September delivery) followed news that US and Canadian oil drillers had cut active rigs for the second week in the last three. View article >
It seems not long ago that forecasts for dollar-to-real were in the 4s and 5s. Much has changed however, and despite political uncertainty prevailing in Brazil, the real is now set to move to more expensive levels, at least according to BNP Paribas’ chief Latin America strategist, Marcelo Carvalho.
Carvalho believes that the real will strengthen against the US dollar to R$3.0 by year-end, from this morning’s exchange rate of R$3.175. View article >
Fuelled by a return to “risk-on” amid easing geopolitical tensions and ahead of a crucial employment report, the Australian dollar rose broadly and was the currency world’s best performer yesterday.
Notable exchange rates include AUD/NZD, which rallied to a fifteen-week high of N$1.087, and AUD/GBP, which rallied to a four-and-a-half-month high of £0.616.
A notable emerging market rate, AUD/PHP, rose yesterday to ₱40.75 – a high not seen since 2014. View article >
The yen fell by nearly a percent yesterday against the US dollar – its biggest one-day fall in six weeks – as investors regained their appetite for risk amid an easing of the tense situation surrounding North Korea.
The yen, which has long been considered the FX world’s premier safe haven, typically falls in value against other currencies during periods of geopolitical stability and rises with uncertainty. View article >
HSBC and Morgan Stanley are in agreement: The euro will rally to reach parity (1.0) with the British pound within the next 4-8 months.
This consensus has been formed after Morgan Stanley this week released their latest forecasts which show EUR/GBP at 1.02 by the end of March next year. HSBC had already publicly forecast a rate of 1.0 by year-end. View article >
“Let’s calm down,” said the governor of the Philippines’ central bank on Sunday as he sought to settle investor nerves following a fall in the Philippine peso to an eleven-year low against the dollar.
The peso fell on Friday to 51.14 against USD – a valuation not seen since August 2006 – and has fallen again on Monday to 51.29.
The peso remains Asia’s worst performing currency in 2017 and, together with the Hong Kong dollar, is one of only two of the twelve most actively traded Asian currencies to post a loss against USD this year, which is saying a great deal given the difficult time the American currency is having. View article >
The implied probability of a further hike in US interest rates this year declined on Friday to 35%, down from probabilities above 40% one day earlier. This fairly drastic adjustment in market expectations for US rates occurred following inflation data which, remarkably, came in below market expectations for the fifth consecutive month. The US dollar ended the week lower as a result. View article >
Amid growing tensions between the US and North Korea, investors fled on Thursday to the safety of the Japanese yen, gold and Treasuries.
Earlier this week, US president Donald Trump had promised to lay “fire and fury” on North Korea should any attempt be made by the rogue nation to harm the US.
Not one to back down, North Korea responded to Trump’s “fury” by describing on state media yesterday a plan to fire missiles at the island of Guam – a US territory 3,400km (2100 miles) from the North Korean border. View article >
On Wednesday, a single explosive hour formed the basis of what became the Hong Kong dollar’s best day since February 2016.
A little after 6am in London and 1pm in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong dollar suddenly took off, forcing USD/HKD down from levels around 7.826 to 7.8116. And while a 0.18% move might seem negligible when compared to those common in other markets, such moves are rare in USD/HKD due to the manner in which Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to its American counterpart. View article >