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Gradual Appreciation of Taiwan Dollar Likely, Says Research Group, and Stormy Waters Possibly Ahead for Emerging Market Currencies

The team at BMI Research – part of the Fitch group of companies – are maintaining their “slightly bullish” short-term view on the Taiwan dollar, mainly on technical grounds. Over a longer-term, analysts at the firm are also positive on the Taiwanese currency, believing in a “gradual appreciation”, based upon a solid fiscal outlook in Taiwan and what they see as an undervalued currency generally. View article >

Aussie Falls on CPI Miss and Hong Kong Dollar Slide Continues, Now at Fourteen-Month Lows

Within the past hour, the Australian dollar has fallen sharply following weaker than expected CPI data. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that consumer prices grew 0.5% in the first-quarter of 2017 and at an annualized rate of 2.1%. AUD/USD fell from 0.7539 to 0.7508 on the news and, as of writing, trades at 0.7512. AUD/JPY fell from 83.90 to 83.50 and trades at 83.58 as of writing. View article >

Yen to Weaken Against US Dollar in Coming Months, Says Citi Bank, and US Protectionism Begins with Trump’s Canadian Lumber Tax

In their latest weekly foreign exchange report, US giant Citi Bank have predicted a rise to 118.0 in USD/JPY in the coming 6-12 months, representing a 7% fall in the dollar buying power of the yen. The yen will depreciate against the dollar as US Treasury yields rebound following future announcements on US fiscal stimulus plans, according to Citi’s analysts. Improving US yields – more specifically, a widening of the gap between US and Japanese yields – will drive investors into US currency and away from the yen. View article >

Euro Jumps to Multi-Month Highs Vs. USD, NZD and AUD: Markets See Macron as Near Certainty for French Presidency as He Faces Le Pen in Election Second Round

There’s only one story in town this morning – the battle for Europe’s future, otherwise known as the French general election. As had been predicted for many months, the pro-Europe, centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and the far-right, Eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen have made it through to the head-to-head second round of voting, to take place on May 7th. With 96% of the votes counted, Macron’s 23.9% and Le Pen’s 21.4% portion of the vote is enough to see off François Fillon and Jean Luc Mélenchon, both of whom have approximately 19% of votes at the time of writing. View article >

Euro Surges on Macron result

The Euro has surged in early Asian trading to five-month highs against the U.S. dollar as centrist Emmanuel Macron emerged winning the first round presidential election result. The National Front’s Marine Le Pen was predicted to also reach the second round of voting.
EUR/USD 1 Week Chart
The result was seen as positive for the Euro and EU as investors had been worried that a second-round contest between Le Pen and the far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon would have set up a possible exit of France from the European Union. View article >

Get Your New Zealand Dollars This Year Rather Than Next, Suggests Bank’s Latest FX Forecasts

Yesterday, ABN AMRO released their latest FX forecasts for 2017 and 2018. There were few notable revisions, nor was there much in the way of standout predictions, with the exception of one – NZD/USD to rise to 0.80 in 2018. The ‘kiwi’ hasn’t traded at or above 0.80 against the US dollar since October 2014. A move to that level from its current price of 0.6993 (as of 02:00 GMT, April-21) would mark a 14.4% rise – a large amount if you’re planning on buying property or investing in New Zealand, or planning holidays there. View article >

Highest New Zealand Inflation Since 2011 Pushes AUD/NZD to Six-Week Lows

Consumer prices in New Zealand are rising at their fastest rate in more than five years, said Statistics New Zealand today. CPI rose 1% in Q1, ahead of the market forecast of 0.8% and Q4-2016’s 0.4%. The rise brings annualized inflation to 2.2% – its highest since September 2011. The New Zealand dollar jumped on the news from 0.70 to 0.7044 against the US dollar, and AUD/NZD fell from 1.07 to 1.0643. View article >

Sterling Soars on May’s Election U-Turn and Switzerland Denies Currency Manipulation

Described as a “game-changer” by Deutsche Bank, British prime minister Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election was the big story of the day on Tuesday and has reignited sterling exchange rates. For months Theresa May had played down the possibility of an election earlier than 2020. In the eyes of many of the ruling Conservative Party, there was little chance that the opposition Labour Party could dig themselves out of their current pit of disarray between now and then, and so the Conservatives could carry on as is – without interruptions to Brexit negotiations – and still expect a comfortable victory at that later date. View article >

South African Rand Stable Three-Weeks After Political Reshuffle

On April 3rd, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to “junk” status (to BB+ from BBB-) following a chaotic and unwelcome cabinet reshuffle in the country during the final days of March. As reported earlier in April on, South African president Jacob Zuma had sacked his well-respected finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, in an overnight cabinet purge and replaced him with Malusi Gigaba – a man seemingly without business experience and no economic background. View article >

Dollar Plays Catch Up, European Elections to Begin and Pleasant Surprises on China Data

The US dollar has started the week lower against most currencies as traders play catch up following market holidays on Friday. In Friday’s market update at, we described how March’s US core inflation fell month-on-month for the first time in seven years, but with many investors away for the Good Friday holiday, we also described how expected weakness in the US dollar did not occur (the US Dollar Index actually finished higher on the day). View article >

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