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Sterling Falls to 1-Month Low as Polls Show Tory Lead Shrinking

Throughout May, the British pound has battled with the $1.30 level against the US dollar. Since April 27th, the majority of trading in GBP/USD has occurred within a narrow range between $1.2845 and $1.30. Only once since that date did the pair manage to post a close above $1.30, which occurred on May 19th at $1.3033. Psychologically important levels change over time, but as of now, $1.30 is definitely seen by foreign exchange traders and analysts as such a level, and in the short-term is considered a benchmark for judging the British currency’s underlying strength. View article >

Thai Baht at 22-Month Highs as Money Pours into Emerging Markets

The Thai baht had its best day yesterday since March and has forced itself to 22-month and 15-month highs against the US dollar and Australian dollar respectively. USD/THB fell by 0.55% yesterday to 34.15, finally breaking the 34.25 level that had held the pair up since April 3rd. And the baht has strengthened again this morning, adding a further 0.25% in gains against the American currency. View article >

New Six-Month Highs in Singapore Dollar as Government Predicts Above-2% Growth in 2017

The Singapore dollar-to-US dollar exchange rate reached six-month highs this morning at 0.7231 following new predictions from Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) that economic growth in the country will exceed 2% this year. “Barring the materialization of downside risks, GDP growth is likely to come in higher than the 2% achieved in 2016,” said the MTI. This morning also saw the release of revised Singapore Q1 GDP data – also supplied by the MTI. View article >

Moody’s Downgrades China Debt, Adds Another Weight onto Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar has fallen this morning following a downgrade of China’s debt rating by US ratings agency Moody’s. The giant Asian nation has been assigned a new rating of A1 (from Aa3) by the agency on the grounds that its “financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years.” It is the first time in nearly three decades that Moody’s has cut China’s sovereign rating. View article >

AUD/USD Back at 0.75 but That Doesn’t Change Bearish Outlook

As of writing, a little before 5am GMT on Tuesday, the Australian dollar has reached 0.75 versus the US dollar. This psychologically important level will be welcomed by Australian dollar bulls who, more than most, have suffered during the past two months after watching the currency decline from 0.7750 to 0.7328 between March 21st and May 9th. Including today’s move, today marks the ninth day in ten that the AUD/USD exchange rate has climbed. View article >

Merkel Adds Fuel to Euro Rally, Says Euro “Too Weak” for Germany

In the past several hours, the euro has surged following the release of comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has said that the single currency is “too weak” for Germany – weakness which is “due to the ECB’s policy” and which “makes German goods…comparatively cheap.” As of writing at 13:35 GMT, the euro is buying $1.1245 and remains close to its intra-day high (and new six-month high) at $1.1249. View article >

Malaysian Ringgit’s Failure to Rally Despite Positive News Could be Important Signal for Currency’s Future Direction

In Conan Doyle’s Hound of the Baskervilles, the legendary detective Sherlock Holmes solves a crime using his knowledge of what didn’t happen. Specifically, when Holmes learns that the victim’s dog had not barked during the night of the theft of a prized racehorse, Holmes knows that the offender is likely known to the dog – an insight which leads Holmes in the right investigative direction. View article >

Startling Move in Brazilian Real Highlights Risk of Holding Emerging Market Currencies

Brazil’s financial markets are in shock following further revelations of bribery and corruption involving the country’s president, Michel Temer. President Temer was yesterday forced to deny newspaper reports that he had discussed paying off a witness in an ongoing corruption investigation. And in a day of full scale political turmoil, two MPs began impeachment proceedings against Temer, and Aecio Neves, a political ally of the president and a man also accused of bribery, was suspended and had his home raided by police. View article >

Dollar Battered and Fed Rate Hike in Doubt as Trump Jolts Markets

The likelihood of a US rate hike in June is falling fast, as is the US dollar. Just one week ago, the implied probability of the Federal Reserve hiking US interest rates at next month’s meeting – a probability derived from prices in Fed funds futures contracts – stood near 85%. As of Monday, that probability had fallen to 74%, and at the end of yesterday’s session (Wednesday), it stood at roughly 62%. View article >

Another 6% Fall in AUD/USD Exchange Rate Coming in 2017, Says Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted yesterday that the Australian dollar-to-US dollar exchange rate will fall to 0.7 within 2017 – a move that would mark a near-6% fall from yesterday’s closing rate of 0.7426. Analysts at the bank have come to their conclusion following an in-depth analysis of Australian steel production rates and port shipment data, both of which they see as indicative of likely currency direction, and both of which are declining. View article >
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