Turkish Lira General Info
The lira is subdivided into 100 kuruş.
Global interest in the lira has picked up considerably since the turn of the millennium. By 2016, the lira was the 16th most traded currency in the world. It had been 30th most traded in 2001.
Precious metals remain an important cog in Turkey’s economy. “Turkey is home to the entire gold value chain from mining and refining, to jewellery design and investment,” says the World Gold Council, and this therefore links short and medium-term changes in the lira’s value to the broader commodities cycle.
Short-term changes in the lira are also driven by risk sentiment. As a riskier, emerging market currency, the lira will fall in value against the major currencies of the world (especially JPY, USD, CHF, GBP and EUR) during periods of economic uncertainty or when geopolitical risk is elevated.
It is fair to say about the lira’s long-term value that it is stuck in perpetual decline.
Ravaged by above-100% inflation, the lira lost 97% of its value against the dollar between the mid-1990s and early 2000s. In 2003, with a single dollar buying 1.5 million lira, the Turkish government decided to redenominate, and this took place in January 2005, striking six zeros from the lira.
Post-redenomination, the historic downtrend in the lira persists, barring some stability between 2005 and 2008.
Between January 2008 and January 2017, the lira lost 71% of its updated value as TRY/USD fell from its post-redenomination high of 0.8772 (USD/TRY 1.14) to its post-redenomination low of 0.2538 (USD/TRY 3.94).Read our Travel Guide to Turkey
TRY - Currency Market News
In the first nine months of 2017, the Turkish lira vastly underperformed other emerging market currencies.
This was the year in which those in Turkey would have hoped their national currency might buck its long-term downtrend and make gains against the dollar. The dollar had, after all, declined 10% to September 24th (per the US Dollar Index). Instead, the lira remained more or less flat on the year (strengthened 0.8%). By comparison, the Mexican peso, Thai baht and Russian ruble had strengthened 16.8%, 8.3% and 6.6% respectively.
In 2017, potential buyers of lira were once again being frightened away by inflation, which ticked back up into double figures in August (+10.7%). Annualized inflation came in at levels above 10% in six of the seven months between February and August.
In September, the team at TradingEconomics.com were bravely predicting a stronger lira by the end of September 2018. They saw USD/TRY falling to 3.13 (TRY/USD 0.319), from rates of 3.5 (TRY/USD 0.286) at the time of their prediction.