Pound Sterling (GBP)
The Pound has fallen against the Euro and US Dollar today.
This poor performance comes after the delivery of the Autumn budget, which has given UK economists plenty to talk about.
On the plus side, there were apparent relief measures for young workers, consisting of a ‘millennial railcard’ and a stamp duty cut for first time buyers.
Less positively, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave a gloomy forecast for future UK growth.
The OBR downgraded its growth expectations for the UK all the way to 2021, owing to persistently low national productivity.
Today data revealed that UK business investment slowed by more than forecast in the third quarter.
The Pound could be influenced in the near-term by today’s Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported trades reading, which is tipped to show improvement from -36 points to 5.
Having struggled earlier in the week because of German political issues, the Euro has since recovered and risen against the Pound and US Dollar.
Eurozone data has been supportive across the board, showing higher German GDP and rising German and Eurozone-wide PMI readings for November.
The Euro could be further-influenced by this afternoon’s European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting account. Dovish comments would be Euro-negative.
US Dollar (USD)
Yesterday evening saw the publication of the penultimate Federal Reserve minutes of 2017.
As expected, the minutes pointed to a December interest rate hike, although there were background concerns about lacklustre inflation growth.
Today is Thanksgiving in the US, so there is no economic data out until Friday.
The US Dollar could advance on Friday’s data though as the PMI activity measures have positive forecasts.
Australian Dollar (AUD)
An optimistic assessment of the Australian economy has failed to support the Australian Dollar today as appetite for higher-risk currencies fluctuates in reaction to global economic developments.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
The New Zealand Dollar firmed as growth in NZ retail sales in the third quarter was slightly stronger than expected.
Good news also came from Stephen Joyce, a former Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) economist.
Joyce has blasted forecasts for an NZ recession from earlier in the week, arguing that new government policies ‘won’t make that much difference’ to the financial situation.
The New Zealand Dollar could rise further on this evening’s NZ trade balance announcement, which is tipped to show a sizable deficit reduction.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Ahead of potentially-supportive retail sales data, the Canadian Dollar has seen a small advance against the Pound and US Dollar.
The present rise is largely down to crude oil prices, which have risen up to $58.02 per barrel recently.
Economists predict that today’s retail sales readings for September will show monthly growth, which may trigger a Canadian Dollar rally.
Higher sales are supportive anyway, but the previous sales stats were negative so a growth reading might have an amplified impact on CAD.
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