BER Currency News

BER Home/s

  1. Home
  2. Currency News
  3. ABM Amro Has “Strong Conviction” on Future Dollar Weakness; Predicts 12% Rise in AUD and NZD

ABM Amro Has “Strong Conviction” on Future Dollar Weakness; Predicts 12% Rise in AUD and NZD


New forecasts from Dutch bank ABN Amro see continued weakness in the US dollar heading into and throughout 2018.

“We have a strong conviction that the US dollar has entered a multi-year downtrend,” said ABN’s Georgette Boele.

The dollar will be hardest hit against “growth sensitive and commodity currencies,” according to the bank, which include the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone and Swedish krona.

In ABN’s opinion, the aforementioned currencies will benefit over the next fifteen months from commodity price rises (commodities typically do well in a weak dollar environment), as global trade improves, and because the respective central banks of these currencies will soon commence raising interest rates (Canada has already begun).


Forecasts, Q4 2018:

Against most of the FX majors, ABN see the dollar falling back to 2014 levels.

Dollar weakness will culminate at the end of next year with an AUD/USD exchange rate of $0.9 according to ABN, which would mark a 12.5% gain in the Australian dollar from Monday’s open of $0.7998.

AUD/USD 3 Month Chart

Like its Australian cousin, ABN sees the New Zealand dollar appreciating 12.5% to buy $0.82, from Monday’s rate of $0.7289.

There’s a gap to the Canadian dollar and euro, which are both set to appreciate by 8.8%, which will take EUR/USD and USD/CAD to $1.30 and C$1.12 respectively.

Performing a little worse will be the yen, which will gain 7.3%, forcing USD/JPY down to ¥104.

ABN appear least convinced about the British pound.

The bank takes a somewhat contrarian stance by saying that an increase in UK interest rates before year-end is “not our base scenario.” This flies in the face of market expectations, which were cemented on Friday after a speech by Bank of England committee member Gertjan Vlieghe, who appeared to confirm that rates would go up “within the coming months.”

ABN also expect sterling to be vulnerable to changes in sentiment as the UK-EU ‘Brexit’ negotiations continue to develop.

“It is difficult to call how [Brexit] news flow will go in the near term,” says ABN’s Boele.

GBP/USD 3 Month Chart

Regardless, with the dollar expected to fall hardest of all, and with at least some kind of UK-EU transitional agreement expected, ABN sees GBP/USD rising 4.6% to $1.42, from Monday’s rate of $1.3580.

Best of all currencies will be the Norwegian krone. This will benefit from a rise in the price of oil and gas products, which make up nearly half of Norway’s total exports. The krone is expected to appreciate 20% against the dollar before the end of 2018, forcing USD/NOK to just Kr. 6.54.

Improving by 19% will be the Swedish krona. USD/SEK is seen at Kr. 6.73.


Readers in need of foreign currency can save a ton by changing money with one of BER’s trusted FX providers. Avoid inflated bank margins by using our exchange rate comparison calculators for travel cash and foreign currency transfers.

Consider that with today’s best value FX provider, changing CAD 25,000 into Australian dollars will return AUD 25,260 – nearly AUD 1,000 more than you’ll be given by a typical Bureau de Change (today’s Bureau average: AUD 24,273).

Joel Wright Author: Joel Wright

Joel has been involved in the markets for the past 10 years. During that time he’s worked in market analysis teams in London, in the financial technology sector in Singapore – working mostly with automated trading tools and algorithms – and most recently he’s been planning FX risk hedging for an SME in Bangkok. Joel has a first-class honours degree in Financial Services and currently writes about foreign exchange for several global businesses.

You can get in touch with Joel via email here or via the contact page.
Please note that the opinions of our authors are their own and do not reflect the opinion of Best Exchange Rates and should not be taken as a reference to buy or sell any financial product. Full Disclaimer

BER logo Best Exchange Rates - We make it Easy to Compare Exchange Rates & Fees of Banks and Currency Exchange & Payment Providers

Level 2, 50 Bridge St, Sydney NSW 2000.

Disclaimer | Copyright | Privacy Statement


Best Exchange Rates is an information only service. By browsing on the website, using our comparison tools or FX provider referral service, you are asking Best Exchange Rates to provide you with information about currency exchange products & services from multiple financial institutions.

We will try to show you a range of products & services in response to your request for information. The search results do not include all providers and may not compare all features relevant to you. In giving you product information we are not making any suggestion or recommendation to you about a particular product.

If you decide to conduct foreign exchange you will deal directly with a financial institution, and not with Best Exchange Rates. Rates and product information should be confirmed with the relevant financial institution, see our terms of use for further details.

Best Exchange Rates may receive fees or other benefits in relation to activity on the Best Exchange Rates website. Best Exchange Rates may receive remuneration for vendor referral links. Please note that the opinions of our authors are their own and do not reflect the opinion of Best Exchange Rates and should not be taken as a reference to buy or sell any financial product.

Read our Full Terms of Service


This website and its contents are the copyright of BEST EXCHANGE RATES PTY LTD © 2009-17. All rights reserved.

Any redistribution or reproduction of part or all of the contents in any form is prohibited other than the following. You may print or download contents to a local hard disk for your personal and non-commercial use only. You may copy some extracts only to individual third parties for their personal use, but only if you acknowledge the website as the source of the material.

You may not, except with our express written permission, distribute or commercially exploit the content. You may not transmit it or store it on any other website or other form of electronic retrieval system.

For more details or request distribution right please contacxt us here.