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Loonie Surges on Soaring Oil

Categories: AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, Markets, News, USD

The Canadian dollar is off the sidelines and finally participating in the broad US dollar sell-off. USDCAD inched lower overnight on the back of rising oil prices that pushed WTI briefly above $50.00/barrel

The Asia FX session was subdued. USDJPY consolidated this week’s losses in a 111.12-111.68 range. It was down for the week but well-above Thursday’s 110.22 low.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD drifted higher, buoyed by the greenback’s politically charged sell-off.  Both currency pairs are finishing the week stronger than where they started.

EURUSD opened in Asia with a bid and recouped all of Thursday’s losses by the time New York opened. The Eurozone current account surplus narrowed in March but the news was ignored.

Sterling drifted quietly higher until mid-morning in Europe when it spiked to 1.3015 from 1.2944 for no apparent reason.  German chancellor Angela Merkel said that Britain would be treated fairly but will pay the Brexit price.

The 172nd (Ordinary) Opec meeting begins on May 25th. Chatter that Opec members are willing to extend and possibly deepen, production cuts until March 2018 have bolster prices and offset high US inventory concerns.

Global equity traders were in a good mood and the world’s major equity indices closed higher or are higher than yesterday.

USDCAD shrugged off a report yesterday that claimed the US formally launched its effort to renegotiate Nafta.  US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer triggered a 90-day consultation period with the US congress and the American public that will allow Nafta talks to start after August 16. FX traders only had eyes for oil and USDCAD was sold.

USDCAD is already under pressure from higher oil prices. Better than expected Canadian March Retail Sales (Forecast 0.4%, ex-autos 0.2%) and April CPI (forecast 0.5%) data may be the catalyst to break support at 1.3560 and extend losses to 1.3440

The only item of note in the US is a speech from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

Overnight Ranges

19-May-17 Open-6 am EDT High Low
USDCAD 1.3586 1.3608 1.3567
EURUSD 1.1157 1.1164 1.1098
USDJPY 111.47 111.69 111.12
GBPUSD 1.3011 1.3017 1.2932
USDCHF 0.9767 0.9804 0.9761
AUDUSD 0.7444 0.7468 0.7408
NZDUSD 0.6894 0.6904 0.6883
USDMXN 18.7615 18.8604 18.7303
WTI   48.23 50.05 49.33


USDCAD Technical outlook:

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.3640 looking for a break below 1.3560 to extend losses to 1.3505 and then 1.3440.  A move above 1.3640 suggests further 1.3570-1.3770 range trading.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3560, 1.3530 and 1.3505.  Resistance is at 1.3610, 1.3640 and 1.3680.

Today’s Range 1.3510-1.3610

Chart: USDCAD 4 hour



Agility Forex Author: Agility Forex

Agility Forex is a Canadian cross-border payment specialist. They are Canadian owned, operated out of Vancouver and are registered with Fintrac, the Canadian government agency that oversees the money transfer industry. They specialize in all things Canadian Dollar and aim to provide the best service and best pricing on all Loonie cross rates. Visit Agility Forex.

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