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US Dollar in Holding Pattern

Categories: AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, Markets, News, USD

The FX majors traded in narrow ranges in another dull overnight session. Traders are waiting to be disappointed by Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony on Wednesday. A lack of top-tier economic data (again) has zapped the will to trade.

It wasn’t a complete write-off. In Asia, USDJPY rose steadily from 114.04 to 114.47 on a tick higher in US bond yields

The antipodean currencies had a moment. NZDUSD dropped from 0.7277 to 0.7214 after weaker than expected Electronic Card Retail Sales.  At the same time, AUDUSD was chugging higher, bolstered by better than expected NAB Business Survey. (Conditions 15 vs. forecast 12) and (Sentiment 9 vs. 7)

EURUSD bounced within a 1.1383-1.1399 range. Traders are torn between expectations for the start of ECB tapering and higher rates.

Sterling was flat in Asia and then popped from 1.2871 to 1.2926 in Europe. Part of that rally was due to hopes that Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent would provide some clues to near term interest rate direction in a speech later today.

 Oil prices were flat in Asia but they drifted lower in Europe. WTI is in a minor uptrend while prices are above $43.70, looking for a break of $45.10 to extend gains to $47.00.  A move below $3.70 suggests a drop down to $42.00.

USDCAD opened almost unchanged from Monday’s closing level.  Prices have climbed from Friday’s 1.2860 low on profit-taking and position adjustment ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada policy decision, Governor Poloz press conference and the Monetary Policy Report.

Today, will be a lot like yesterday. The FX majors will likely be confined to their overnight ranges. A speech by FOMC member and voter Lael Brainard could cause a stir if she stokes the rate hike fires.  Canada Housing Starts data won’t do anything to dissuade the Bank of Canada from a 0.25 bp rate hike tomorrow.


Overnight Ranges

11-Jul-17 Open-6 am EDT High Low
USDCAD 1.2917 1.2918 1.2887
EURUSD 1.1394 1.1399 1.1383
USDJPY 114.32 114.47 114.04
GBPUSD 1.2902 1.2926 1.2871
USDCHF 0.9689 0.9687 0.9657
AUDUSD 0.7610 0.7625 0.7604
NZDUSD 0.7216 0.7277 0.7216
USDMXN 18.0505 18.0505 17.9024
WTI   44.15 44.88 44.05

 USDCAD Technical outlook:

The USDCAD technicals are bearish looking for further losses to 1.2770 and then 1.2500. Only a move above 1.3250 would negate the downside pressure.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2880 and 1.2860.  Resistance is at 1.2920, and 1.2950

Today’s Range 1.2870-1.2950

Chart: USDCAD 30 minute



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