CAD - Recent Performance
Of the many drivers of the Canadian dollar in 2017, chief among them were the hawkishness of the Bank of Canada, oil prices and the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations with the US and Mexico.
The Canadian dollar ended the year on a high, reaching ten-week highs of 79.9 US cents and 90.04 yen on the final trading day of the year. Like other “petro-currencies,” the Canadian dollar piggybacked off an impressive year-end rally in oil and other commodities. In their last session of the year, oil futures broke $60 per barrel for the first time since mid-2015. The “loonie” is positively correlated with oil due to Canada’s status as the world’s fourth largest oil exporter.
For 2018, ABN Amro are forecasting a slightly lower CAD/USD rate of 0.7813. The bank sees CAD/EUR rising to 0.6793 (2017 year-end rate: 0.6625).
With two rate hikes under its belt since July, the Bank of Canada is one of only two major central banks (together with the US Federal Reserve) to have entered a policy tightening cycle. ABN Amro expects the BoC to hike twice more in 2018.