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    Currency Forecasts – Latest Updates

    Overview of forecasts for popular currencies together with rate trends updated hourly.

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    Risk aversion continues to plague currency markets

    In October, currency markets are volatile driven by the interplay of three currents — the continuing property market debt crisis in China — hawkish predictions for central bank bond buying and interest rate policy — and the energy crisis in Europe and China.

    The resolution of the U.S. Senate debt ceiling standoff has helped the greenback to multi-month highs against a range of cross-rates with the US Dollar index powering to a 1 year high.

     

    Australian dollar (AUD)

    AUD to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to USD at 0.7453 has risen 1.7% above its 90-day average, range 0.7129-0.7458. AUD/USD Rates

    The emergence of Evergrande and other significant roadblocks such as energy shortages in Europe and China impacting the global economic recovery throughout September prompted a shift in the underlying risk narrative, causing unfavourable conditions for commodity currencies like the AUD. AUD Outlook

    In early September, AUD broke 0.74 USD, however due to erosion in risk sentiment sparked by the Evergrande crisis, then steadily declined toward 0.72 USD.

    Despite the pessimistic outlook there OFX see an opportunity should there be any uptick in global risk sentiment, accelerating a broader AUD rebound towards 0.75 USD.

    AUD-USD Outlook

    Changing expectations around US Federal Reserve policy and a less positive outlook for global growth have weighed on the Aussie to Euro rate this year.

    However, increased gas prices heading into the northern winter have helped the AUD/EUR rate to rise back above the 0.63 level.

    AUD-EUR Outlook

    British pound (GBP)

    GBP to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsGBP to USD at 1.3769 is near its 90-day average, range 1.3426-1.3961. GBP/USD Rates

    The outlook for the pound for October is very uncertain due to rising inflation, slowing growth and unemployment, the combination of which could create a nightmare scenario for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

    OFX predict the GBP could range between 1.33 – 1.38 USD and against the euro between 1.14 – 1.18 EUR.

    GBP Outlook

    The pound sunk in September to 1.34 against the greenback but has recovered into October near 1.36 after Boris called the army out to drive the fuel trucks.

    The outlook for the pound for October is very uncertain due to rising inflation, slowing growth and unemployment, the combination of which could create a nightmare scenario for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

    OFX predict the GBP could range between 1.33 – 1.38 USD in October.

    GBP-USD Outlook

    The outlook for the pound for October is very uncertain due to rising inflation, slowing growth and unemployment, the combination of which could create a nightmare scenario for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

    The energy crisis has pushed the Pound down against the Australian dollar plus AUD is benefiting from gas and coal prices increases.

    GBP-AUD Outlook

    Canadian dollar (CAD)

    CAD to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsCAD to USD at 0.8098 has risen 2.0% above its 90-day average, range 0.7793-0.8098. CAD/USD Rates

    ING think CAD is in oversold territory. They expect more tapering by the Bank of Canada to support the Canadian dollar into year-end, and the short positioning may help limit the loonie’s downside. CAD Outlook

    Into October, broader risk sentiment is driving direction for commodity currencies like the loonie. If the global equity volatility eases, we could see domestic data take the front seat in driving the currency direction.

    OFX predict the USDCAD pair could trade between 1.24 – 1.29 CAD in October.

    USD-CAD Outlook

    Euro (EUR)

    EUR to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsEUR to USD at 1.1647 is 0.8% below its 90-day average, range 1.1531-1.1888. EUR/USD Rates

    Dollar strength and German political uncertainty sees the Eurozone single currency on the decline and at 1 YEAR LOWS versus the greenback touching the 1.15 level vs the greenback.

    There will be a close eye kept on Eurozone inflation data on October 29, any upside surprise could support the euro.

    EUR Outlook

    In September, Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrat Party narrowly won the German election. The longer negotiations and political uncertainty drag on, the greater downward pressure will be felt by the euro.

    In addition should risk sentiment remain fragile, there could be continued demand for USD as a safe haven. Therefore, USD/EUR could gain higher.

    USD-EUR Outlook

    The pound sunk in late September to but has recovered after Boris called the army out to drive the fuel trucks.

    The outlook for the pound for October is very uncertain due to rising inflation, slowing growth and unemployment, the combination of which could create a nightmare scenario for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

    OFX predict the GBP could range between 1.14 – 1.18 EUR in October.

    GBP-EUR Outlook

    Indian rupee (INR)

    USD to INR 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsUSD to INR at 75.01 has risen 1.1% above its 90-day average, range 72.99-75.48. USD/INR Rates

    The Indian rupee has dropped to its lowest level against a range of currencies since April as the Reserve Bank of India kept its monetary policy unchanged.

    Most Asian currencies have weakened against the dollar on fears that surging energy prices could spur inflation and interest rate hikes.

    India imports most of its oil requirements and higher crude prices tend to push up domestic inflation.

    INR Outlook

    The rupee weakness in September has continued into October dropping from 73 to 75 per USD, after powering ahead in late August gaining almost 2% as speculation grew that the central bank was relaxing its control over the currency. USD-INR Outlook

    New Zealand dollar (NZD)

    NZD to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsNZD to USD at 0.7126 has risen 1.7% above its 90-day average, range 0.6832-0.7157. NZD/USD Rates

    In mid-October the NZ dollar surged to US71¢ on the news from Statistics NZ that quarterly CPI rose 2.2 per cent and annual inflation accelerated to 4.9 per cent. The uptick in the NZD comes from expectations the RBNZ may raise interest rates more than and sooner than expected.

    NZD Outlook

    The NZD has dropped back relative to AUD from mid September into October. The risk-off shift sparked by the Evergrande crisis, coupled with the emergence of new roadblocks to global recovery, seemingly impacting the Kiwi dollar more than the Aussie.

    The sharp increase in energy prices has also supported AUD/NZD, as Australian export prices for coal and natural gas rose significantly.

    AUD-NZD Outlook

    US dollar (USD)

    USD to X 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsThe U.S. Dollar Index at 93.71 is 0.7% above its 90-day average, range 91.90-94.51. US-Dollar index

    The USD had a strong month in September, outperforming all the G10 currencies. The gains can be attributed to more ‘hawkish’ commentary from the US Federal Reserve, especially in comparison to the European Central Bank.

    According to OFX the USD trend for October is unclear.

    USD Outlook

    In September, Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrat Party narrowly won the German election. The longer negotiations and political uncertainty drag on, the greater downward pressure will be felt by the euro.

    In addition should risk sentiment remain fragile, there could be continued demand for USD as a safe haven. Therefore, USD/EUR could gain higher.

    USD-EUR Outlook

    The US dollar surged to 6-Month Highs against the Mexican peso in October as as bond yields have risen sharply on predictions the US Fed will start tapering (cutting back on Bond purchases).

    But the peso was not alone as most other Latin American currencies dropped as the dollar strengthened.

    USD-MXN Outlook

     

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