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    Currency Forecasts – Latest Updates

    Overview of forecasts for popular currencies together with rate trends updated hourly.

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    Risk aversion continues to plague currency markets

    In November, it’s still all about central bank monetary policy. In particular interest rate hikes, which help drive demand for a currency. The past few weeks have given the market plenty to watch. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates, the Bank of England surprised by holding rates. The banks of Japan, Australia and the Eurozone held their rates, giving signals that hikes won’t be happening any time soon, but we learnt that a hike in Canada could arrive within months.

     

    Australian dollar (AUD)

    AUD to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to USD at 0.7001 has fallen 4.2% below its 90-day average, range 0.6999-0.7543. AUD/USD Rates

    The emergence of Evergrande and other significant roadblocks such as energy shortages in Europe and China impacting the global economic recovery throughout September prompted a shift in the underlying risk narrative, causing unfavourable conditions for commodity currencies like the AUD. AUD Outlook

    The Aussie dollar hit a recent high near 0.755 USD in late October but has since dropped back to 0.74 into November. The catalyst was a successfully dovish Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA reiterated that it doesn’t see rate hikes until 2024, as wages are expected to increase only moderately.

    At the same time, Australia’s narrowing trade surplus and the worst retail sales quarter on record added more fuel to a weak Australian dollar, the worst G10 performer last week.

    AUD-USD Outlook

    Changing expectations around US Federal Reserve policy and a less positive outlook for global growth have weighed on the Aussie to Euro rate this year.

    However, increased gas prices heading into the northern winter have helped the AUD/EUR rate to rise back above the 0.63 level.

    AUD-EUR Outlook

    British pound (GBP)

    GBP to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsGBP to USD at 1.3246 has fallen 2.5% below its 90-day average, range 1.3225-1.3843. GBP/USD Rates

    The outlook for the pound as we near the end of the year is increasingly uncertain due to rising inflation, slowing growth and unemployment, the combination of which creates a nightmare scenario for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. GBP Outlook

    The pound sunk in September to 1.34 against the greenback but has recovered into October near 1.36 after Boris called the army out to drive the fuel trucks.

    The outlook for the pound for October is very uncertain due to rising inflation, slowing growth and unemployment, the combination of which could create a nightmare scenario for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

    OFX predict the GBP could range between 1.33 – 1.38 USD in October.

    GBP-USD Outlook

    The outlook for the pound for October is very uncertain due to rising inflation, slowing growth and unemployment, the combination of which could create a nightmare scenario for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

    The energy crisis has pushed the Pound down against the Australian dollar plus AUD is benefiting from gas and coal prices increases.

    GBP-AUD Outlook

    Canadian dollar (CAD)

    CAD to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsCAD to USD at 0.7793 has fallen 2.0% below its 90-day average, range 0.7783-0.8118. CAD/USD Rates

    ING think CAD is in oversold territory. They expect more tapering by the Bank of Canada to support the Canadian dollar into year-end, and the short positioning may help limit the loonie’s downside. CAD Outlook

    Given the outperformance of the CAD in 2021, it was no surprise to see some consolidation in late October as investors took profits. However, heading into November it continues to be the year’s best-performing major currency.

    OFX predict the USD could trade between 1.23-1.2550 CAD in November. (CADUSD 0.77-0.80)

    USD-CAD Outlook

    Euro (EUR)

    EUR to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsEUR to USD at 1.1306 has fallen 2.2% below its 90-day average, range 1.1200-1.1871. EUR/USD Rates

    Dollar strength and a fourth wave Covid in Germany and Eastern Europe have seen the Eurozone single currency on the decline and at 1 YEAR LOWS versus the greenback. EUR Outlook

    In September, Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrat Party narrowly won the German election. The longer negotiations and political uncertainty drag on, the greater downward pressure will be felt by the euro.

    In addition should risk sentiment remain fragile, there could be continued demand for USD as a safe haven. Therefore, USD/EUR could gain higher.

    USD-EUR Outlook

    The pound sunk in late September to but has recovered after Boris called the army out to drive the fuel trucks.

    The outlook for the pound for October is very uncertain due to rising inflation, slowing growth and unemployment, the combination of which could create a nightmare scenario for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

    OFX predict the GBP could range between 1.14 – 1.18 EUR in October.

    GBP-EUR Outlook

    Indian rupee (INR)

    USD to INR 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsUSD to INR at 75.25 has risen 1.0% above its 90-day average, range 73.11-75.48. USD/INR Rates

    The Indian rupee has dropped to its lowest level against a range of currencies since April as the Reserve Bank of India kept its monetary policy unchanged.

    Most Asian currencies have weakened against the dollar on fears that surging energy prices could spur inflation and interest rate hikes.

    India imports most of its oil requirements and higher crude prices tend to push up domestic inflation.

    INR Outlook

    The rupee weakness in September has continued into October dropping from 73 to 75 per USD, after powering ahead in late August gaining almost 2% as speculation grew that the central bank was relaxing its control over the currency. USD-INR Outlook

    New Zealand dollar (NZD)

    NZD to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsNZD to USD at 0.6753 has fallen 3.8% below its 90-day average, range 0.6749-0.7200. NZD/USD Rates

    In mid-October the NZ dollar surged to US71¢ on the news from Statistics NZ that quarterly CPI rose 2.2 per cent and annual inflation accelerated to 4.9 per cent. The uptick in the NZD comes from expectations the RBNZ may raise interest rates more than and sooner than expected.

    NZD Outlook

    The NZD has dropped back relative to AUD from mid September into October. The risk-off shift sparked by the Evergrande crisis, coupled with the emergence of new roadblocks to global recovery, seemingly impacting the Kiwi dollar more than the Aussie.

    The sharp increase in energy prices has also supported AUD/NZD, as Australian export prices for coal and natural gas rose significantly.

    AUD-NZD Outlook

    US dollar (USD)

    USD to X 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsThe U.S. Dollar Index at 96.15 has risen 1.9% above its 90-day average, range 92.21-96.85. US-Dollar index

    The USD had a strong month in September, outperforming all the G10 currencies. The gains can be attributed to more ‘hawkish’ commentary from the US Federal Reserve, especially in comparison to the European Central Bank.

    According to OFX the USD trend for October is unclear.

    USD Outlook

    In September, Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrat Party narrowly won the German election. The longer negotiations and political uncertainty drag on, the greater downward pressure will be felt by the euro.

    In addition should risk sentiment remain fragile, there could be continued demand for USD as a safe haven. Therefore, USD/EUR could gain higher.

    USD-EUR Outlook

    The US dollar surged to 6-Month Highs against the Mexican peso in October as as bond yields have risen sharply on predictions the US Fed will start tapering (cutting back on Bond purchases).

    But the peso was not alone as most other Latin American currencies dropped as the dollar strengthened.

    USD-MXN Outlook

     

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