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    Currency Forecasts – Latest Updates

    Overview of forecasts for popular currencies together with rate trends updated hourly.

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    Age of cheap money coming to an end.

    Away from the frontlines, as people start to realise the world can largely live with Omicron, the age of cheap money seems to be at an end with central banks raising interest rates.

    Besides the impact on currency rates of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the next most discussed issue of the moment is definitely inflation, thanks to the added costs from higher energy and commodity prices.

    EURUSD – The European Central Bank surprised markets mid July when it increased interest rates by 50 basis points, the first rise in over a decade. Due to the Eurozone’s reliance on gas from Russia, the euro remains vulnerable with USD/EUR at a 20-year High at parity in August, whereas it had been 0.87 in early February before the start of Putin’s so called Russian ‘special miliary operation’ in Ukraine.

    CADUSD – Volatile oil prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have lead to large price movements to continue for the Canadian Dollar. Towards the end of September the loonie has weakened sharply down to around 0.73 relative to the greenback (1 USD = 1.37 CAD).

    AUDUSD – As predicted, the AUD’s traditional vulnerability to risk has left it exposed to a broader correction in late September. CBA have lowered their forecast for the Aussie to fall to US62¢ by December as the slow down in the Chinese economy hits the price of many of Australia’s key commodity exports.

    USDJPY – The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the US dollar. For reference, with USD/JPY hitting 136 in July — a more than 20-Year Low for the yen. Yen weakness against the greenback stems from the interest rate differentials between Japan and the US. The market expects that the Fed Reserve will continue to hike rates aggressively, while the BOJ is committed to low interest rates.

     

    US Dollar Forecasts

    The strength of the US dollar looks likely to continue when, at the annual Jackson Hole central banker’s getaway, Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the US central bank will ‘keep at it’ and is likely to keep raising interest rates to battle surging inflation.

    A clear reflection of this is that the US Dollar index (measure of the USD strength against basket of currencies) is approaching 20 year highs.

     USD Outlook

    USD to EUR

    USD to EUR 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsUSD to EUR at 1.0463 is 5.5% above its 90-day average 0.9919 with range 0.9541-1.0465.

    The European Central Bank surprised markets mid July when it increased interest rates by 50 basis points, the first rise in over a decade.

    Due to the Eurozone’s reliance on gas from Russia, the euro remains vulnerable with USD/EUR at a 20-year High at parity in August, whereas it had been 0.87 in early February before the start of Putin’s so called Russian ‘special miliary operation’ in Ukraine.

     USD-EUR Forecasts


    USD to MXN

    USD to MXN 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsUSD to MXN at 20.46 is 1.1% above its 90-day average 20.23 with range 19.83-20.86.

    Mid-year the peso has weakened back above the key 20 level versus the US dollar.

    When uncertainty increases, traders tend to move quickly out of emerging market FX such as the peso first before looking for safe havens.

     USD-MXN Forecasts

     

    Canadian dollar Forecasts

    Since the start of the Russia/Ukrainian war the risk on-off markets had been pushing the Canadian dollar rate up and down in a range around 0.7850 to the US dollar.

    However from mid-September the loonie has weakened down from this range to around 0.73 relative to the greenback.

     CAD Outlook

    CAD to USD

    CAD to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsCAD to USD at 0.7262 is 5.3% below its 90-day average 0.7669 with range 0.7261-0.7835.

    Volatile oil prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have lead to large price movements to continue for the Canadian Dollar.

    Towards the end of September the loonie has weakened sharply down to around 0.73 relative to the greenback (1 USD = 1.37 CAD).

     USD-CAD Forecasts


    CAD to EUR

    CAD to EUR 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsCAD to EUR at 0.7598 is near its 90-day average 0.7605 with range 0.7411-0.7754.

    In late August CAD/EUR is trading around the 0.77 level, this a few percent from where the rate ended 2021.

    The effect of Ukraine crisis on energy prices hurts the euro and helps the gas and oil exporting Canadian dollar.

     CAD-EUR Forecasts


    CAD to INR

    CAD to INR 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsCAD to INR at 59.45 is 2.8% below its 90-day average 61.15 with range 59.41-62.43.

    The Ukrainian crisis and the risk-off market for European energy supplies have pushed the Canadian dollar down against the Rupee.

    At the end of the January the CAD/INR exchange rate was heading towards the 59 mark down from its highs around 61 in October last year.

     CAD-INR Forecasts

     

    Australian Dollar Forecasts

    ANZ Bank forecast the AUD to regain some ground by the end of the year to US70¢.

    While NAB see the Aussie dollar to be range bound between US65¢ to US70¢, testing the lower end at the some point through to the end of the year.

     AUD Outlook

    AUD to USD

    AUD to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to USD at 0.6385 is 6.7% below its 90-day average 0.684 with range 0.6385-0.7127.

    As predicted, the AUD’s traditional vulnerability to risk has left it exposed to a broader correction in late September.

    CBA have lowered their forecast for the Aussie to fall to US62¢ by December as the slow down in the Chinese economy hits the price of many of Australia’s key commodity exports.

     AUD-USD Forecasts


    AUD to SGD

    AUD to SGD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to SGD at 0.9227 is 3.4% below its 90-day average 0.9553 with range 0.9227-0.9771.

    AUD/SGD hit a recent peak of 1.03 in early April but the Aussie/Sing dollar rate has since dropped to below 0.96 as optimism goes missing around China’s COVID policies.

    Before this latest blow, commodity-linked currencies such as the Aussie dollar had been moving up as Russia’s tragic actions in Ukraine push up demand for oil and other natural resources.

     AUD-SGD Forecasts


    AUD to EUR

    AUD to EUR 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to EUR at 0.6679 is 1.5% below its 90-day average 0.6783 with range 0.6535-0.6996.

    Due to the Eurozone’s reliance on gas from Russia, the euro remains vulnerable with AUD/EUR at a 5-year High in August near 0.70, whereas it had been approaching 0.60 in early February before the start of Putin’s so called Russian ‘special miliary operation’ in Ukraine.

     AUD-EUR Forecasts

     

    British pound Forecasts

    The pound hit an all-time low (since decimalization in 1971) in late September of 1.03 against the greenback (1 USD = 0.97 GBP) — reacting to the controversial tax-cutting policies from the new chancellor.

    The outlook for sterling against most currencies over the winter remains extremely challenging in its precarious post-Brexit/Ukraine war economic environment.

     GBP Outlook

    GBP to USD

    GBP to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsGBP to USD at 1.0681 is 9.3% below its 90-day average 1.1781 with range 1.0680-1.2255.

    GBPUSD is down over 20 percent this year and hit an all-time low (since decimalisation in 1971) in late September of 1.03 (1 USD = 0.97 GBP) — reacting to the controversial tax-cutting policies from the new chancellor.

    The Bank of England has joined the global fight against inflation, but has raised rates by less than the US Federal Reserve.

    So it seems the BoE’s gloomy economic forecasts has increased pressure on Sterling.

     GBP-USD Forecasts


    GBP to AUD

    GBP to AUD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsGBP to AUD at 1.6733 is 2.8% below its 90-day average 1.7221 with range 1.6543-1.7764.

    In the first quarter the GBP/AUD exchange rate dropped on the impact of the Ukraine situation on commodity prices — this was good for AUD and bad for GBP.

    Since then the pound-aussie rate has fluctuated around the 1.76 level (1 AUD = 0.56 GBP), but as we move through 2022 the prospect of more Australian interest rate rises sooner than expected could boost the Aussie dollar vs Sterling.

     GBP-AUD Forecasts

     

    Euro Forecasts

    Major banks are forecasting the eurozone common currency to fall to $0.95 by the end of the year.

    This multi-year low for the euro vs the US dollar looks only to worsen as winter approaches; the short term news for the single currency is all negative.

     EUR Outlook

    EUR to USD

    EUR to USD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsEUR to USD at 0.9565 is 5.2% below its 90-day average 1.0085 with range 0.9556-1.0481.

    The European Central Bank surprised markets mid July when it increased interest rates by 50 basis points, the first rise in over a decade.

    Due to the Eurozone’s reliance on gas from Russia, the euro remains vulnerable with USD/EUR at a 20-year High at parity in August, whereas it had been 0.87 in early February before the start of Putin’s so called Russian ‘special miliary operation’ in Ukraine.

     USD-EUR Forecasts


    EUR to GBP

    EUR to GBP 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsEUR to GBP at 0.8946 is 4.4% above its 90-day average 0.8565 with range 0.8357-0.8998.

    Mid-year the GBP/EUR rate is well down to around to the 1.15-16 levels, well down from the recent high of 1.21 in March.

    This is some achievement given the Euro has been under heavy pressure itself from impact on gas prices by the the war in Ukraine.

    The BoE’s (UK central bank) gloomy economic forecasts has also increased pressure on Sterling.

     GBP-EUR Forecasts

     

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