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    Australian Dollar AUD Forecasts 2021

    AUD weakness in 2021 has been due to the different path of the RBA on interest rates. In Q4 this has reversed due to the sharp increase in energy prices supporting AUD against a range of currencies as Australia is a major coal and natural gas exporter.

    Updated: Oct 09, 2021  
     

    1 AUD = 0.7019 USD
    Sell AUD  →  Buy USD
    AUD to USD at 0.7001 has fallen 4.2% below its 90-day average, range 0.6999-0.7543.
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      1 USD = 1.4247 AUD
     
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    Aussie Dollar Outlook

    The emergence of Evergrande and other significant roadblocks such as energy shortages in Europe and China impacting the global economic recovery throughout September prompted a shift in the underlying risk narrative, causing unfavourable conditions for commodity currencies like the AUD.

    AUD/USD wasChangePeriod
    0.7232
    19 Nov 2021
    3.2% 2 Weeks
    0.7456
    04 Sep 2021
    6.1% 90 Days
    0.7436
    03 Dec 2020
    5.9% 1 Year
    0.7432
    04 Dec 2016
    5.8% 5 Years
    1.0235
    06 Dec 2011
    31.6% 10 Years
    0.5156
    08 Dec 2001
    35.7% 20 Years
    AUD/USD change over periods to 03-Dec-2021

    Australian dollar 2021 Overview

    The Aussie dollar hit a recent high near 0.755 USD in late October but has since dropped back to 0.74 into November. The catalyst was a successfully dovish Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA reiterated that it doesn’t see rate hikes until 2024, as wages are expected to increase only moderately.

    At the same time, Australia’s narrowing trade surplus and the worst retail sales quarter on record added more fuel to a weak Australian dollar, the worst G10 performer last week.

    AUD-USD Outlook

    Until the recent Fed Reserve pivot, the Australian dollar had benefited from the US dollar sell-off since late last year as investors moved away from the safe haven of the USD and into riskier assets. This was off the back of Biden winning the presidential election and the positive news of COVID-19 vaccine testing.

    The Aussie had risen so far as to touch US80¢ briefly on Feb 25th before changing course abruptly during March — due to a surge in US treasury yields — to be trading down at Easter at around US76¢ to the greenback.

    Before this ‘reflationary’ news the Australian Dollar had been rising due to a combination of rising Australian government bond yields and commodity prices racing ahead, these factors are two prime drivers of Aussie Dollar demand.

    Last year, 2020 the year of COVID, saw solid gains for the AUD against the majority of currencies however forecasts were almost entirely driven by the effects and response to the Coronavirus pandemic rather than any fundamentals of the Australian economy.

    However as we progress through 2021, the Aussie dollar is being buffeted by predictions of rising interest rates and inflation as the world starts the slow path to recovery from the pandemic.

    The Australian dollar enjoyed a sharp uptick in mid-April, advancing above US77c and then US78c in May – its highest levels since the late February highs that saw the Aussie dollar nudging US80c.

    Australian dollar – Key Rates

    The following sections show a summary of bank forecasts for popular AUD cross rates that we have reviewed, you can view each forecast article for more details.

    AUD to GBP

    AUD to GBP 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to GBP at 0.5285 has fallen 1.8% below its 90-day average, range 0.5285-0.5504. AUD/GBP Rates

    The outlook for the pound for October is very uncertain due to rising inflation, slowing growth and unemployment, the combination of which could create a nightmare scenario for the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

    The energy crisis has pushed the Pound down against the Australian dollar plus AUD is benefiting from gas and coal prices increases.

    GBP-AUD Outlook

    AUD to EUR

    AUD to EUR 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to EUR at 0.6189 has fallen 2.2% below its 90-day average, range 0.6169-0.6502. AUD/EUR Rates

    Changing expectations around US Federal Reserve policy and a less positive outlook for global growth have weighed on the Aussie to Euro rate this year.

    However, increased gas prices heading into the northern winter have helped the AUD/EUR rate to rise back above the 0.63 level.

    AUD-EUR Outlook

    AUD to SGD

    AUD to SGD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to SGD at 0.9598 has fallen 3.0% below its 90-day average, range 0.9598-1.0142. AUD/SGD Rates

    The AUD has dropped against changing expectations around US Federal Reserve policy and a less positive outlook for global growth and Chinese demand for iron ore.

    AUD/SGD is still well below its 2021 peak of 1.045 in March. Changing expectations around US Federal Reserve policy and a less positive outlook for global growth have weighed on the Aussie to Singapore rate this year.

    However, increased gas and coal prices heading into the northern winter have helped the AUD/SGD rate to rise back above the 0.99 level.

    AUD-SGD Outlook

    AUD to NZD

    AUD to NZD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to NZD at 1.0367 is 0.5% below its 90-day average, range 1.0312-1.0606. AUD/NZD Rates

    The NZD has dropped back relative to AUD from mid September into October. The risk-off shift sparked by the Evergrande crisis, coupled with the emergence of new roadblocks to global recovery, seemingly impacting the Kiwi dollar more than the Aussie.

    The sharp increase in energy prices has also supported AUD/NZD, as Australian export prices for coal and natural gas rose significantly.

    AUD-NZD Outlook

    AUD to JPY

    AUD to JPY 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to JPY at 79.03 has fallen 4.0% below its 90-day average, range 78.96-85.93. AUD/JPY Rates

    AUD/JPY has risen 3.5 percent since late September mainly due to AUD strength as Australia profits from energy prices hikes. AUD-JPY Outlook

    AUD to HKD

    AUD to HKD 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to HKD at 5.4574 has fallen 4.1% below its 90-day average, range 5.4569-5.8664. AUD/HKD Rates

    AUD/HKD has risen back to the 5.7 level since late September mainly due to AUD strength as Australia profits from energy prices hikes.

    The Aussie dollar in 2021 has had a long slide down against the HK dollar and remains below its 90-day average and well down from the highs above 6 earlier in the year.

    AUD-HKD Outlook

    AUD to INR

    AUD to INR 90-Day Currency Trend Chart with Hi, Low, Up, Down AlertsAUD to INR at 52.68 has fallen 3.3% below its 90-day average, range 52.67-56.46. AUD/INR Rates

    AUD/INR has risen 3 percent back to the 55 level since late September mainly due to AUD strength as Australia profits from energy prices hikes.

    In September the ‘risk off’ market mood has pushed the Australian dollar further down against the Rupee. After peaking in April near 58 the AUD/INR exchange rate changed direction and has headed down towards the 53-54 mark.

    AUD-INR Outlook

    Australians are more focussed on their currency exchange rate than are the citizens of most other countries! Read why in our Foreign exchange guide to Australia.

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    Disclaimer: Please note any provider recommendations, currency forecasts or any opinions of our authors should not be taken as a reference to buy or sell any financial product.