Australian Dollar Forecasts – 2020 Overview

The bleak outlook in the US has added downward pressure on the world’s base currency and helped consolidate the Aussie dollars’ upturn. Although the Australian dollar has recently edged through the key 0.72 handle, a sustained move above this level has been hard to come by.

Further uncertainty in the US could push the AUD through 0.72 US cents.

In the second quarter of 2020 AUD staged a rapid recovery through the months of April, May and into June up 25% from its mid-March lows to US70c in early June. This is due more to the perceived benefits to Australia of an awakening post-pandemic Chinese economy than the political-social situtation in the US dpressing the USD.

The Aussie had been savaged in March sliding to US55 cents the lowest since 2003. Growing fears of the coronavirus outbreak moved the market into safer currencies such as the USD and away from AUD, NZD and CAD.

The virus was a double blow to the Aussie after the earlier threat of proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq had also pared back some of the gains the Aussie had made coming into the New Year.

The Australian dollar had started the new decade strongly climbing to multi-month highs helped along by cooling trade tensions between the United States and China and optimism for global economic growth in the year ahead.

The Aussie broke back over US70 cents on the final day of 2019 — a level not seen since mid year. During December the Australian dollar reversed direction (again) and climbed steadily back up against the US dollar on the back of the strength of the housing market and a market perception that further interest rate cuts were less likely.

NAB have revised upwards their pound sterling forecasts now expecting the GBP/USD rate to be at US$1.47 by June 2022, up from their previous forecast of US$1.39. For 2020, it sees GBP at US$1.36 by year-end, up from a predicted US$1.30.

The pound was the worst performer of the major currencies in September. In late September, the currency saw some gains off the back of optimistic Brexit talks and comments from the Bank of England that negative interest rates, despite being in the toolbox, were not appropriate. The currency remains vulnerable to volatility driven by fears unemployment levels will rise when the current furlough scheme ends in October and the increasing likelihood of further lockdowns in a bid to combat the second wave in infections. The EU and UK look to resolve a trade deal by the end of October. Only weeks remain to allow the new laws to go through both the UK and EU Parliaments before December 31. The shorter this time frame the more volatility can be expected. Watch for any positive or negative headlines around negotiations which could trigger volatility. — In September, after breaking 0.74 US cents, the AUD fell against most of the major currencies. The potential second wave of COVID-19 is dampening expectations for global growth and US election uncertainty is driving risk-off sentiment, which does not benefit the AUD. While the focus remains with the underlying risk narrative a shift in key economic data sets is also weighing on the currency. Recent Consumer Price Index data came in below market expectations and the domestic growth outlook has flattened following Victoria’s second wave lockdown, raising expectations monetary policy will ease before the end of the year. Should the RBA cut rates and the market appetite for risk continue to sour, the AUD could be trading between 0.68 and 0.70 US cents in the short-term.

Read more about FX Broker and Bank analysts' predictions for GBP to AUD future trends in our blog article GBP to AUD Forecast Review.

September was a relatively quiet month for the euro, which it is not as vulnerable as commodity currencies when sentiment shifts from risk-on to risk-off. However, the euro did see losses against the USD and JPY which fell 2.28% and 2.63% respectively, due to the risk-off environment driving safe-haven demand in those currencies. Trade negotiations will continue to weigh on both the pound and euro until an agreement is reached. Both parties agree the deal needs to be made in October. Watch for the ECB announcement on interest rates and monetary policy on October 29 which could trigger volatility. October Currency Update

Read more about FX Broker and Bank analysts' predictions for AUD to EUR future trends in our blog article AUD to EUR Forecast Review.

In 2020 AUD/SGD forecasts are primarily influenced by the perceived relative coronavirus impact on economies and the success of government’s response to the pandemic.

Read more about FX Broker and Bank analysts' predictions for AUD to SGD future trends in our blog article AUD to SGD Forecast Review.

In September, after breaking 0.74 US cents, the AUD fell against most of the major currencies. The potential second wave of COVID-19 is dampening expectations for global growth and US election uncertainty is driving risk-off sentiment, which does not benefit the AUD. While the focus remains with the underlying risk narrative a shift in key economic data sets is also weighing on the currency. After trading close to 0.68 US cents the NZD lost approximately 3% at the end of September touching lows nearing 0.65. The losses can be attributed to weaker risk sentiment and broad-based USD strength driven by a broader correction in US equities. Although the local election looms, attentions remain with the wider global narrative. The NZD will be vulnerable to further downside if sentiment continues to sour.  October Update

Read more about FX Broker and Bank analysts' predictions for AUD to NZD future trends in our blog article AUD to NZD Forecast Review.

The Japanese yen was the best performer within the major currencies in September. Despite radical monetary policy, the Bank of Japan now projects that it won’t accomplish its 2% inflation target at least until March 2022. The BoJ will hold a monetary policy meeting on October 28. Any announcements on interest rates and monetary policy could impact the value of the yen. Typically, JPY will gain when stock markets depreciate. Further correction of the equity markets from all-time highs, and safe haven demand driven by uncertainty, could put the currency in good stead to continue its upward trend. October Update

Read more about FX Broker and Bank analysts' predictions for AUD to JPY future trends in our blog article AUD to JPY Forecast Review.

AUD/HKD forecasts are influenced by three factors; the coronavirus impact on and response by both economies, changes in the delta between interest rates in Australia and the US (as HKD is pegged to USD) and also the trade war between China and the US and increasingly Australia.

Read more about FX Broker and Bank analysts' predictions for AUD to HKD future trends in our blog article AUD to HKD Forecast Review.