GBP Trends, News and Forecasts for 2020

In the 2nd half of August market analysts started forecasting risk to the downside for the pound from US 1.33 given the tight 7 week deadline for Brexit combined with the drop in domestic demand due to the pandemic.

US dollar weakness has helped the embattled pound continue its recovery off June and early July lows. Despite this brief upturn, the outlook remains pessimistic as Brexit uncertainty and questions over the economy’s ability to rebound after the pandemic weigh on the currency.

In late July pound sterling is heading back towards US1.30 due to US dollar weakness. This is a remarkable change of fortunes for GBP which was sold-off after the Brexit vote and again after the virus forced a lockdown in London, the world’s largest foreign-exchange centre. Against the dollar, sterling touched the lowest level in 35 years (below US1.16) in March as traders sought the safety of the USD.

The coronavirus pandemic has replaced Brexit in the headlines and means that the deadline for a trade deal with the Eurozone this year could either be pushed back, delaying a risk for the currency, or see more favorable terms given to the U.K.

NAB have revised upwards their pound sterling forecasts now expecting the GBP/USD rate to be at US$1.47 by June 2022, up from their previous forecast of US$1.39. For 2020, it sees GBP at US$1.36 by year-end, up from a predicted US$1.30.

The pound was the worst performer of the major currencies in September. In late September, the currency saw some gains off the back of optimistic Brexit talks and comments from the Bank of England that negative interest rates, despite being in the toolbox, were not appropriate. The currency remains vulnerable to volatility driven by fears unemployment levels will rise when the current furlough scheme ends in October and the increasing likelihood of further lockdowns in a bid to combat the second wave in infections. The EU and UK look to resolve a trade deal by the end of October. Only weeks remain to allow the new laws to go through both the UK and EU Parliaments before December 31. The shorter this time frame the more volatility can be expected. Watch for any positive or negative headlines around negotiations which could trigger volatility. — In September, after breaking 0.74 US cents, the AUD fell against most of the major currencies. The potential second wave of COVID-19 is dampening expectations for global growth and US election uncertainty is driving risk-off sentiment, which does not benefit the AUD. While the focus remains with the underlying risk narrative a shift in key economic data sets is also weighing on the currency. Recent Consumer Price Index data came in below market expectations and the domestic growth outlook has flattened following Victoria’s second wave lockdown, raising expectations monetary policy will ease before the end of the year. Should the RBA cut rates and the market appetite for risk continue to sour, the AUD could be trading between 0.68 and 0.70 US cents in the short-term.

Read more about FX Broker and Bank analysts' predictions for GBP to AUD future trends in our blog article GBP to AUD Forecast Review.

GBP will rise to 1.20 per euro according to Standard Bank. The coronavirus pandemic means that the deadline for a trade deal this year could either be pushed back, delaying a risk for the currency, or see more favourable terms given to the U.K.

September was a relatively quiet month for the euro, which it is not as vulnerable as commodity currencies when sentiment shifts from risk-on to risk-off. However, the euro did see losses against the USD and JPY which fell 2.28% and 2.63% respectively, due to the risk-off environment driving safe-haven demand in those currencies. Trade negotiations will continue to weigh on both the pound and euro until an agreement is reached. Both parties agree the deal needs to be made in October. Watch for the ECB announcement on interest rates and monetary policy on October 29 which could trigger volatility. October Currency Update

Read more about FX Broker and Bank analysts' predictions for GBP to EUR future trends in our blog article GBP to EUR Forecast Review.