Forecasts for the Canadian dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Canadian economy.
Since the start of the Russia/Ukrainian war the risk on-off markets had been pushing the Canadian dollar rate up and down in a range around 0.7850 to the US dollar.
However from mid-September the loonie has weakened down from this range to around 0.73 relative to the greenback.
14 Nov 2022
30 Aug 2022
28 Nov 2021
29 Nov 2017
30 Nov 2012
03 Dec 2002
Volatile oil and gas prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have lead analysts to predict large price movements to continue for the Canadian Dollar.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine the CAD was being supported by expectations of domestic interest rate hikes – and the oil price was a key driver of CAD strength at the start of the year.
Last year, 2021 the second year of COVID, Canadian dollar forecasts were almost entirely driven by the effects and response to the Coronavirus pandemic rather than any fundamentals of the Canadian economy.
However as we progress through 2022, the Canadian dollar is being buffeted by predictions of rising interest rates, inflation and the oil price as the world starts the slow path to recovery from the pandemic.
CAD exchange rates have gained amid Canada’s improved economic outlook and recovering oil prices. Early success in controlling COVID-19 has helped the Canadian economy to rebound as massive government aid boosted consumer spending and low interest rates have fuelled a surge in the housing market.
Supporting the loonie has been a rise in the oil price (oil is among Canada’s most exported products but is volatile and can’t be relied upon), a large and welcome jump in inflation, and dovishness at major central banks of the world, including the Federal Reserve, ECB and RBA.
The following sections show a summary of bank forecasts for popular GBP cross rates that we have reviewed, you can view each forecast article for more details.
In October the loonie remains weaker, down from recent highs of 0.78 in August to around 0.73 relative to the greenback (1 USD = 1.37 CAD).
The Ukrainian crisis and risks for an energy crisis in Europe has pushed the Pound down against the Canadian, New Zealand and Australian Dollars. These currencies that normally are vulnerable to ‘risk off’ events, showing the impact of the gas crisis in the UK.
In the final quarter of the year CAD/EUR is trading around the 0.74-0.76 level, this a few percent down from the start of the year.
The effect of Ukraine crisis on energy prices hurts the euro and helps the gas and oil exporting Canadian dollar.
The Ukrainian crisis and the impact on energy prices have pushed the Canadian dollar up & down this year against the Rupee.
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