Forecasts for the euro change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the overall Eurozone economy. This continually updated article reviews EUR bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.
In May, Deutsche Bank predicted more euro depreciation. It said EUR/USD could break $1.10 over the summer, with key drivers being the Coronavirus pandemic , US-China trade war, and a possibly delayed Brexit.
On Brexit, Nordea Research has said that “no deal” will have the euro buying £0.95, that a Norway-type Brexit (“Norway plus”) or permanent customs union will lead to £0.81-0.83, and a deal akin to the current withdrawal agreement should see £0.83-0.84.
EUR/AUD could be a lot higher by year-end, at rates between A$1.67 and A$1.785, based on implied forecasts from Danske Bank and Westpac.
EUR will fall to 0.80 against the British pound according to Standard Bank. The coronavirus pandemic has replaced Brexit in the headlines and means that the deadline for a trade deal with the Eurozone this year could either be pushed back, delaying a risk for the currency, or see more favorable terms given to the U.K.
Rabobank told Bloomberg TV in early April that they see the Euro holding its value in an otherwise difficult virus affected year for most currencies.
The Euro spent 2019 on a downwards trajectory, starting the year with highs at US1.1550 but then slid all year until October where it bottomed out at US$1.09 on Oct 1, close to long-term lows. Since then it has climbed back up towards the average rate for the year of US1.12, perhaps due to the less uncertainty around Brexit.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider an exchange rate’s current relative value is to look at the euro’s history against a range of currencies and in particular against the currency you are interested in exchanging it with.
For example, the following tables look at the change in the EUR exchange rate to the present day for periods going back 10 years for popular EUR exchange rates.
|EUR/USD||Period to 29-May||Date||Rate|
|1.9% ▲||1 Week||22 May 2020||1.0901|
|2.1% ▲||30 Days||29 Apr 2020||1.0877|
|0.7% ▲||90 Days||29 Feb 2020||1.1028|
|0.2% ▼||1 Year||30 May 2019||1.1130|
|1.2% ▲||5 Years||31 May 2015||1.0974|
|9.2% ▼||10 Years||01 Jun 2010||1.2227|
|EUR/GBP||Period to 29-May||Date||Rate|
|0.4% ▲||1 Week||22 May 2020||0.8960|
|3.1% ▲||30 Days||29 Apr 2020||0.8723|
|4.6% ▲||90 Days||29 Feb 2020||0.8601|
|1.9% ▲||1 Year||30 May 2019||0.8829|
|25.3% ▲||5 Years||31 May 2015||0.7180|
|7.5% ▲||10 Years||01 Jun 2010||0.8363|
|EUR/AUD||Period to 29-May||Date||Rate|
|0.1% ▼||1 Week||22 May 2020||1.6678|
|0.4% ▲||30 Days||29 Apr 2020||1.6596|
|1.7% ▼||90 Days||29 Feb 2020||1.6943|
|3.3% ▲||1 Year||30 May 2019||1.6118|
|16% ▲||5 Years||31 May 2015||1.4364|
|13.8% ▲||10 Years||01 Jun 2010||1.4640|
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