Forecasts for the euro change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the overall Eurozone economy. This continually updated article reviews EUR bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.
In May, Deutsche Bank predicted more euro depreciation. It said EUR/USD could break $1.10 over the summer, with key drivers being the Coronavirus pandemic , US-China trade war, and a possibly delayed Brexit.
On Brexit, Nordea Research has said that “no deal” will have the euro buying £0.95, that a Norway-type Brexit (“Norway plus”) or permanent customs union will lead to £0.81-0.83, and a deal akin to the current withdrawal agreement should see £0.83-0.84.
EUR/AUD could be a lot higher by year-end, at rates between A$1.67 and A$1.785, based on implied forecasts from Danske Bank and Westpac.
The euro is currently a more appealing investment than the US dollar as fiscal support and COVID-19 containment open the door to a faster paced recovery than what is likely in the US. With current USD weakness and strong long-term prospects for the European Union, there is speculation that the euro could be a contender as the world’s new reserve currency. In the short term the euro could be susceptible to swings, however in the longterm the euro has very good prospects. The currency is poised to move above 1.1850 and extend toward 1.20 in coming weeks.
In mid-July euro strengthened four-month highs (around 1.15 against the US dollar) as european leaders delivered a difficult agreement on a coronavirus rescue package to help member states manage the economic downturn. The historic stimulus package will see the bloc issue 750 billion euros (US$860 billion) of joint debt and is seen by market commentators as positive for the euro.
The Euro spent 2019 on a downwards trajectory, starting the year with highs at US1.1550 but then slid all year until October where it bottomed out at US$1.09 on Oct 1, close to long-term lows. Since then it has climbed back over the 1 year average of US1.11 towards US1.15.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider an exchange rate’s current relative value is to look at the euro’s history against a range of currencies and in particular against the currency you are interested in exchanging it with.
For example, the following tables look at the change in the EUR exchange rate to the present day for periods going back 10 years for popular EUR exchange rates.
|06 Aug 2020 : 1.1876||0.5% ▼||1 Week|
|14 Jul 2020 : 1.1410||3.5% ▲||30 Days|
|15 May 2020 : 1.0822||9.2% ▲||90 Days|
|14 Aug 2019 : 1.1144||6% ▲||1 Year|
|15 Aug 2015 : 1.1110||6.3% ▲||5 Years|
|16 Aug 2010 : 1.2825||7.9% ▼||10 Years|
EUR/USD 10 year historic rates & change to 13-Aug-2020 : 1.1814
|06 Aug 2020 : 0.9039||0% ▲||1 Week|
|14 Jul 2020 : 0.9078||0.4% ▼||30 Days|
|15 May 2020 : 0.8939||1.2% ▲||90 Days|
|14 Aug 2019 : 0.9240||2.1% ▼||1 Year|
|15 Aug 2015 : 0.7101||27.3% ▲||5 Years|
|16 Aug 2010 : 0.8199||10.3% ▲||10 Years|
EUR/GBP 10 year historic rates & change to 13-Aug-2020 : 0.9043
|06 Aug 2020 : 1.6423||0.6% ▲||1 Week|
|14 Jul 2020 : 1.6329||1.2% ▲||30 Days|
|15 May 2020 : 1.6869||2.1% ▼||90 Days|
|14 Aug 2019 : 1.6498||0.1% ▲||1 Year|
|15 Aug 2015 : 1.5056||9.7% ▲||5 Years|
|16 Aug 2010 : 1.4322||15.4% ▲||10 Years|
EUR/AUD 10 year historic rates & change to 13-Aug-2020 : 1.6521