Euro Forecasts for 2022
Immediate forecasts for the euro are being driven entirely by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the impact on energy prices. This continually updated article reviews EUR bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.
BER ResearchEuro outlook
Major banks are forecasting the eurozone common currency to fall to $0.95 by the end of the year.
This multi-year low for the euro vs the US dollar looks only to worsen as winter approaches; the short term news for the single currency is all negative.
| Date | EUR/USD | Change | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
13 Sep 2022 | 0.9978 | 3.8% ▼ | 2 Week |
29 Jun 2022 | 1.0446 | 8.1% ▼ | 3 Month |
27 Sep 2021 | 1.1696 | 17.9% ▼ | 1 Year |
28 Sep 2017 | 1.1781 | 18.5% ▼ | 5 Year |
29 Sep 2012 | 1.2857 | 25.3% ▼ | 10 Year |
02 Oct 2002 | 0.9844 | 2.5% ▼ | 20 Year |
Factors that Affect the Euro Exchange Rate
The euro has dropped below parity vs greenback, for the first time in two decades, over the impact of Russian oil and gas threats plus uncertainty over ECB interest rate plans.
The weak euro is boosting import costs to Eurozone businesses, with a record jump in inflation and energy costs hurting the single-currency economy.
Still the European Central Bank surprised markets mid July when it increased interest rates by a half a percent, the first rise in over a decade.
EUR to CHF
EUR to CHF at 0.9503 is 2.4% below its 90-day average 0.9741 with range 0.9503-1.0018. EUR/CHF Rates
At the start of the tragic Russian invasion of Ukraine the euro sank to parity against the safe-haven Swiss franc hitting 0.9985 francs per euro on March 7th, the lowest since January 2015.
GBP to EUR
GBP to EUR at 1.1152 is 4.5% below its 90-day average 1.1679 with range 1.1114-1.1966. GBP/EUR Rates
Mid-year the GBP/EUR rate is well down to around to the 1.15-16 levels, well down from the recent high of 1.21 in March.
This is some achievement given the Euro has been under heavy pressure itself from impact on gas prices by the the war in Ukraine.
The BoE’s (UK central bank) gloomy economic forecasts has also increased pressure on Sterling.
AUD to EUR
AUD to EUR at 0.6686 is 1.4% below its 90-day average 0.6783 with range 0.6535-0.6996. AUD/EUR Rates
Due to the Eurozone’s reliance on gas from Russia, the euro remains vulnerable with AUD/EUR at a 5-year High in August near 0.70, whereas it had been approaching 0.60 in early February before the start of Putin’s so called Russian ‘special miliary operation’ in Ukraine.
CAD to EUR
CAD to EUR at 0.7602 is near its 90-day average 0.7605 with range 0.7411-0.7754. CAD/EUR Rates
In late August CAD/EUR is trading around the 0.77 level, this a few percent from where the rate ended 2021.
The effect of Ukraine crisis on energy prices hurts the euro and helps the gas and oil exporting Canadian dollar.
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to the Eurozone.
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Disclaimer: Please note any provider recommendations, currency forecasts or any opinions of our authors should not be taken as a reference to buy or sell any financial product.