Forecasts and predictions for the Hong Kong dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the HK economy. This continually updated article reviews HKD bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.
Scotiabank admitted defeat in April when it said that USD, and therefore HKD, was likely to be “stronger for longer.” It had long held a bearish view on both currencies.
HSBC said in May to expect higher HKD values relative to the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, and against riskier emerging market currencies.
In May, HSBC warned against thinking that USD, and therefore HKD, had gotten too high. The bank highlighted the “desolation and destruction” (an exaggeration) facing other economies, and the lack of value-maintaining currency alternatives.
Earlier in the year the threat of proxy war between the US and Iran in Ira helped bring on gains in the Japanese yen and US dollar plus currencies pegged to the greenback such as the Hong Kong dollar.
NAB told Bloomberg TV that it sees a recovery in Asian currencies in the 2nd half of the year if the coronavirus comes under control.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider an exchange rate's relative value is to look at the rate's history.
For example, the following table looks at the change in the HKD to USD exchange rate to the present day for periods going back 10 years:
|1 Week||18 May 2020||1.0291|
|30 Days||25 Apr 2020||1.0276|
|90 Days||25 Feb 2020||1.0244|
|1 Year||26 May 2019||0.9981|
|5 Years||27 May 2015||1.0531|
|10 Years||28 May 2010||0.8668|
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