Forecasts for the Indian rupee change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Indian economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of INR in the currency markets.
The Federal Reserve’s message to the markets that it was preparing to reduce bond purchases sent most USD/Asian and Emerging Market Currencies higher.
Before this pivot by the Fed Reserve the Reserve Bank of India’s announcement of a huge government bond purchase programme in April ended the Indian rupee’s resilience to U.S. dollar strength and other currencies such as GBP and AUD.
The Indian rupee was Asia’s worse performing currency in 2020, but compared to previous crises performed relatively well.
Migrant workers from Asia’s developing countries, such as India, have been sending home record amounts of money in recent months, defying pandemic expectations and propping up home economies at a critical time.
However, it appears workers are just sending money home in advance of their own return due to a bleak job market, particularly in the Middle East.
INR did gain more than 2% in 3Q, despite having an economy ravaged by 6.6 million coronavirus infections. The support for the Indian rupee comes from a rare current account surplus, and billions of dollars in inflows.
The Indian rupee exhibits strong seasonal patterns: the rupee typically falls in value every second-quarter (April-to-June) due to India’s heightened gold demand heading into Akshaya Tritiya – the annual spring time festival of the Hindus and Jains.
Accordingly many currency forecasts point out that rupee strength is to be expected in the second half of a typical year.
Whether the rupee will rise or drop in the future is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider an exchange rate’s current relative value is to look at the Indian Rupee’s history against a range of currencies and in particular against the currency you are interested in exchanging it with.
For example, the sections below look at the change in the INR exchange rate to the present day for periods back 10 years for popular INR exchange rates.
US Dollar to Indian Rupee
USD to INR at 74.38 is 0.8% above its 90-day average, range 72.39-75.00.USD/INR Rates
USD/INR – Weekly range has been between 74.5 to 75 with the rupee falling to a 90-DAY LOW vs the greenback of 75 on July 20. USD-INR Forecasts
British Pound to Indian Rupee
GBP to INR at 103.4 is just above its 90-day average, range 101.6-103.8.GBP/INR Rates
The Reserve Bank of India’s QE announcement sunk the Indian rupee as low as 105 to the pound sterling. GBP-INR Forecasts
Australian dollar to Indian Rupee
AUD to INR at 54.64 has fallen 2.6% below its 90-day average, range 54.63-57.59.AUD/INR Rates
The Reserve Bank of India’s huge bond buying announcement in April 2021 devalued the Indian rupee back above 58 to the Australian dollar. AUD-INR Forecasts
Canadian Dollar to Indian Rupee
CAD to INR at 59.61 is 0.7% below its 90-day average, range 58.78-60.74.CAD/INR Rates
May and June has seen the Indian rupee trade continue to trade around 60 to the CAD dollar. INR sank to this level in April on an announcement from the Reserve Bank of India. CAD-INR Forecasts
USD to INR at 74.38 is 0.8% above its 90-day average, range 72.39-75.00.USD/INR Rates
GBP to INR at 103.4 is just above its 90-day average, range 101.6-103.8.GBP/INR Rates
AUD to INR at 54.64 has fallen 2.6% below its 90-day average, range 54.63-57.59.AUD/INR Rates
CAD to INR at 59.61 is 0.7% below its 90-day average, range 58.78-60.74.CAD/INR Rates