Forecasts for the Indian rupee change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Indian economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of INR in the currency markets.
There are several reasons to favour rupee weakness in the coming months, the first being strong seasonal patterns: the rupee typically falls in value every second-quarter (April-to-June) due to India’s heightened gold demand heading into Akshaya Tritiya.
NAB told Bloomberg TV that it sees a recovery in Asian currencies in the 2nd half of the year if the coronavirus comes under control.
In 2019 the rupee did remarkably well despite a 35 percent rise in the oil price last year (oil is India's largest import).
In early May 2019, by the narrowest of margins, the rupee reached a 16-month high against the Australian dollar (₹48.4), before falling back slightly. It rose towards long-term highs against the euro (₹77.3) and was flat on the year against the US dollar (₹69.2), although it was 8 percent higher against the greenback than it had been in October of 2018.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider an exchange rate's relative value is to look at the rate's history.
For example, the following table looks at the change in the INR to USD exchange rate to the present day for periods going back 10 years:
|1 Week||18 May 2020||0.0132|
|30 Days||25 Apr 2020||0.0131|
|90 Days||25 Feb 2020||0.0139|
|1 Year||26 May 2019||0.0144|
|5 Years||27 May 2015||0.0156|
|10 Years||28 May 2010||0.0215|
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