Forecasts for the Swiss franc change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Swiss economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of CHF in the currency markets.
The franc is unlikely to strengthen beyond Fr1.10 per euro, given the SNB’s eagerness to safeguard that level, a Nordea analyst said in May. For this reason, favour higher EUR/CHF rates over three- and six-month horizons, possibly as high as Fr1.16.
The Swiss National Bank continues to reaffirm its commitment to an ultra-loose monetary policy, which includes negative interest rates and a willingness to intervene in FX markets, as part of an effort to spark inflation in the economy.
The SNB will be unhappy, therefore, with the franc’s strength in May.
Between April-23 and May-24 (the day of this report), the franc was the best performing G10 currency; it gained 2.2 percent against the euro, taking EUR/CHF back towards Fr1.12 and close to long-term lows (franc highs).
May’s strength reflected worsening sentiment towards the global economy, driven by a significant escalation in US-China trade tensions. As a safe haven, the franc typically gains value during tough times and sinks when investors gain confidence.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider an exchange rate's relative value is to look at the rate's history.
For example, the following table looks at the change in the CHF to USD exchange rate to the present day for periods going back 10 years:
|03 Aug 2020 : 1.0897||1 Week|
|11 Jul 2020 : 1.0625||30 Days|
|12 May 2020 : 1.0310||90 Days|
|11 Aug 2019 : 1.0294||1 Year|
|12 Aug 2015 : 1.0235||5 Years|
|13 Aug 2010 : 0.9499||10 Years|