In Q2 2021 the Euro has re-gained strength versus the greenback, a reverse on Q1 where the reflation trade — an increase in US interest rates — had pushed up the USD exchange rate against most currencies.
USD to EUR at 0.8387is 0.9% above its 90-day average, range 0.8163-0.8534.
Euro to US dollar Forecasts
EUR/USD – has confined itself to a range in the past month roughly between 1.2080 and 1.2220 before the Fed’s policy announcement.
The topside of the EUR/USD is now limited to 1.2000 and the risk is for a move to the next support at 1.1700. EUR Forecasts
As for the US Dollar, a recent rise in US inflation is seen as transitory by the Federal Reserve officials. The Euro ended the week lower (1.2110) against an overall stronger US Dollar.
This week the US Federal Reserve pushed its growth forecasts higher and moved the timing of its interest rate hikes to 2023. This sent the US Dollar higher against all its Rivals on Thursday and Friday. USD Forecasts
In May OFX see the euro could trading within a range of 1.17–1.22 USD against the US dollar, and against the pound between 0.8510–0.8735 GBP. Any positive news around the recent acceleration of vaccine roll-outs, lockdowns easing, or progress on the EU Recovery Fund could drive gains for the euro in the coming months.
Goldman Sachs see the EUR/USD rate hitting 1.25 (USD/EUR below 0.80) in the next 3 months, up from their previous prediction of 1.21 dollars to the euro.
ING see the ECB decision to lean against the rising bond yields as a positive for EUR/USD. They expect EUR/USD to move above 1.2500 this summer.
Swiss bank UBS see the EUR/USD rate to rise near 1.27 (USD/EUR below 0.78) by the end of 2021 as the world recovers from the pandemic and has less need for USD as a safe haven.
Other optimistic forecasters, believe the ECB’s support of the eurozone economy is working, they suggest a strong upside for the euro against the U.S. dollar this year and that EUR/USD will test new highs in 2021.
Whether the euro will rise or drop in the future against the US dollar is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current USD-EUR relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
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