Brexit is back in the news after being replaced in the headlines so far this year by coronavirus which is not good for GBP.
Two senior advisers to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have quit, creating turmoil in his inner circle. Cummings leaving is positive news for the pound with the markets thinking a ‘Brexit Deal’ more likely to happen.
After GBP/EUR dropped to €1.08 in mid September the pound to euro rate has steadily risen to €1.1233 on November 12th a 60-DAY-HIGH on hopes of a resolution to Brexit uncertainty.
GBP will rise to 1.20 per euro according to Standard Bank. The coronavirus pandemic means that the deadline for a trade deal this year could either be pushed back, delaying a risk for the currency, or see more favourable terms given to the U.K.
Economic data will have less bearing on the GBP while Brexit uncertainty lingers. Negotiations have come down to the wire, with just days remaining to reach an agreement in time for new laws to go through UK and EU Parliaments. There is now additional pressure, the US president-elect Biden has indicated he will not support a US trade deal if the UK proceeds with proposed legislation that breaches international law. The pound will be vulnerable should the deal fall through, as trade between the UK and EU countries would revert to World Trade Organisation terms which would have a detrimental impact on trade and the economy.
The EUR enjoyed gains off the back of recent USD sell-off but the economic outlook for the bloc continues to be of concern. Economists have warned that the fresh round of COVID-19 restrictions imposed could plunge the bloc back into contraction for the final quarter of the year. With dented recovery prospects and the lingering rhetoric from the European Central Bank against a strong euro, EUR/USD may struggle to break beyond a range of 1.16-1.20. November Currency Update
Note that forecasts and predictions for the GBP/EUR exchange rate change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the UK and Eurozone economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around Brexit.
You can read more about GBP cross-rate forecasts here GBP Trends and Forecasts for 2020.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current GBP-EUR relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
24 Nov 2020
|1% ▼||1 Week|
01 Nov 2020
|0.2% ▲||30 Days|
02 Sep 2020
|1.3% ▼||90 Days|
02 Dec 2019
|4.8% ▼||1 Year|
03 Dec 2015
|19.7% ▼||5 Years|
04 Dec 2010
|5.6% ▼||10 Years|
GBP/EUR 10 year historic rates & change to 01-Dec-2020 : 1.1120