USD/MXN forecasts change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Mexican economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic and the increase US interest rates.
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The Mexican peso weakened in late February as global markets were surprised by a surge in US treasury yields to their highest levels since the pandemic began.
The peso plunged to 90-DAY LOWS near 21 per US dollar whereas it had previously been on a long slow upwards track towards 19.5 to the greenback.
The peso has regained strength against the US dollar that it lost mid-February. Into April the peso has increased in value with USDMXN back below 20 and well below its 90-DAY average.
Since the end of June 2020, the Mexican peso had gained almost 10% against the dollar, the best performance among about 140 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The peso had also delivered the No.1 carry trade — the gains made by borrowing dollars and buying short-term peso-denominated securities — a reward for investors with the stomach to go in after a precipitous 18% selloff in the first half of 2020.
The dollar ended last week falling to 1 Month lows. Risk sentiment tilted towards higher risk assets and currencies as US data showed strong signs of growth in several key sectors of the economy. Low US Treasury yields of 1.7% make the dollar less attractive in comparison to other investments. USD Markets
USDMXN at 19.90has fallen 2.5% below its 90-day average, range 19.59-21.50.
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The foreign exchange market convention for USD/MXN is to quote Mexican peso as Peso per US dollar. Thus a higher USD/MXN rate actually means one peso is worth less, that is you can buy more peso for 1 USD.
Whether the peso will rise or drop in the future against the US dollar is a difficult and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current USD-MXN relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
USD/MXN
Change
Period
20.1494
12 Apr 2021
1.6% ▼
1 Week
20.5059
20 Mar 2021
3.3% ▼
30 Days
19.6491
19 Jan 2021
0.9% ▲
90 Days
24.0413
19 Apr 2020
17.5% ▼
1 Year
17.2868
20 Apr 2016
14.7% ▲
5 Years
11.6074
22 Apr 2011
70.8% ▲
10 Years
USD/MXN 10 year historic rates & change to 19-Apr-2021 : 19.8297