Analysis of recent dollar → peso forecasts for 2024. We collate forecasts from respected FX analysts together with the latest US dollar to Mexican peso performance and trends.
Forecasts for USD to MXN
The USD to MXN exchange rate has recently surged to a 90-day high near 20.28, a notable increase of 3.9% above its three-month average of 19.51. This volatility reflects a substantial 8.9% trading range over the past weeks, fluctuating from a low of 18.63 to its peak. Economic data from the US has displayed mixed signals, with stronger-than-expected ADP payroll figures giving an initial lift to the dollar, followed by a subsequent downturn driven by slower-than-anticipated GDP growth. As FX analysts note, anticipation surrounding the core PCE price index release poses a risk for the USD, particularly if inflation indicators show signs of cooling, which could further detriment the dollar's momentum.
On the other hand, the Mexican peso has been facing headwinds, plunging to its lowest level against the US dollar in two years as traders brace for potential volatility linked to the upcoming US election. According to JP Morgan Chase, the peso displays vulnerability to shifts in the political landscape, with Donald Trump's potential return to the presidency being a key concern due to his proposed tariffs on US companies relocating production to Mexico. Economists have predicted that if Trump secures a victory, the peso could depreciate further, potentially reaching levels of 20.5 per dollar. Conversely, a win for Kamala Harris could result in a brief rally in the peso, driving its value below 19 per dollar. With the dynamic intertwined with oil market influences and the health of the US economy, as well as Mexico's reliance on remittances, the outlook for the peso remains cautious amidst electoral uncertainties.
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Forecasts disclaimer: Please be advised that the forecasts and analysis of market data presented on BestExchangeRates.com are solely a review and compilation of forecasts from various market experts and economists. These forecasts are not meant to reflect the opinions or views of BestExchangeRates.com or its affiliates, nor should they be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in any financial transactions. Read more