Since the end of June, the Mexican peso has gained almost 10% against the dollar. USD/MXN forecasts change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Mexican economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic.
Since the end of June, the Mexican peso has gained almost 10% against the dollar, the best performance among about 140 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The peso has also delivered the No.1 carry trade — the gains made by borrowing dollars and buying short-term peso-denominated securities — a reward for investors with the stomach to go in after a precipitous 18% selloff in the first half of 2020.
Standard Chartered and Rabobank say the Mexican peso is poised to extend its rally through the end of the year. With negative interest rates in many developed markets, Mexico’s 4.5% benchmark holds plenty of appeal to carry investors.
Considering this year’s exceptional election circumstances, difficulties in rolling out fiscal stimulus, low consumer confidence and the extended equity market bull run, the US dollar is likely to continue to be vulnerable. For potential gains for the USD, keep an eye out for any news on fiscal stimulus or a correction in global equities, which could trigger a return to demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency. September Currency Update
The peso fortunes are connected to the oil market with oil high on the list of Mexico’s top exports.
US interest also affect the peso because Mexico holds high levels of dollar-denominated debt, which becomes easier to repay when dollars are cheap and US rates are low.
The foreign exchange market convention for USD/MXN is to quote Mexican peso as Peso per US dollar. Thus a higher USD/MXN rate actually means one peso is worth less, that is you can buy more peso for 1 USD.
You can read about other USD exchange rate forecasts here US Dollar Trends and Forecasts for 2020.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider an exchange rate’s current relative value is to look at the Mexican peso’s history against a range of currencies and in particular against the currency you are interested in exchanging it with.
For example, the following tables look at the change in the USDMXN exchange rate to the present day for periods going back 10 years for popular MXN exchange rates.
| USD/MXN rate | Change | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2020 : 21.1296 | 5.7% ▲ | 1 Week |
| 26 Aug 2020 : 21.9351 | 1.9% ▲ | 30 Days |
| 27 Jun 2020 : 23.0567 | 3.1% ▼ | 90 Days |
| 26 Sep 2019 : 19.6587 | 13.6% ▲ | 1 Year |
| 27 Sep 2015 : 16.9762 | 31.6% ▲ | 5 Years |
| 28 Sep 2010 : 12.5186 | 78.5% ▲ | 10 Years |
USD/MXN 10 year historic rates & change to 25-Sep-2020 : 22.3419