Forecasts and predictions for the Australian dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Australian economy. This continually updated article reviews AUD bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.
Australian dollar in the markets
In early August the Australian dollar sunk to a 10 year low of 67¢ (Aug-7) to the US dollar. This was due to the offshore yuan breaking the symbolic and closely watched USD/CNY = 7.0 exchange rate, after the trade war flared up again and the US labelled China a "currency manipulator".
Investors have sold AUD in recent months as they’ve bet on aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. These bets paid off: the RBA cut its cash rate in both June and July to a record low of 1 percent.
Lower borrowing costs are necessary, investors believe, in light of persistently soft domestic data and the fallout from a US-China trade standoff that shows no sign of nearing an end.
AUD will continue to track changes in interest-rate expectations. Economists expect at least one further cut this year and many expect two by early 2020. After July's cut, the RBA hinted it would leave rates unchanged for several months.
Interestingly, AUD has decoupled from commodity prices in 2019. The price of iron ore (Australia’s largest export) nears multi-year highs while AUD languishes.
Further RBA interest rate cuts this year are now a certainty, and that doesn’t bode well for currency valuations. Westpac has predicted three cuts this year.
Australian dollar cross rate forecasts
The following sections show a summary of bank forecasts for popular AUD cross rates that we have reviewed, you can view each forecast article for more details.
AUD to USD Forecasts
Forecasts for the AUD/USD in 2019 are influenced by two factors; changes in the delta between interest rates in Australia and the US and also the trade war between China and the US. Banks are predicting AUD/USD to drop towards 65-66¢ - a rate that hasn't been seen since 2009. Read more
AUD to GBP Forecasts
In 2019 the AUD/GBP rate is in a tug of war between Brexit and the US/China trade war causing much volatility for the Aussie to pound exchange rate. Read more
AUD to EUR Forecasts
Should Brexit clarity emerge in 2019, euro strength should follow and this would compound Aussie weakness, resulting in lower AUD/EUR rates. Read more
AUD to JPY Forecasts
The FX market's bellwether for risk sentiment, AUD/JPY, is expected by Westpac at ¥72 at the end of 2019. Read more
AUD to INR Forecasts
A decrease in AUD/INR is expected in 2019, and that's bad news for Indian expat workers, who represent one of the largest groups remitting money from Australia. Read more
AUD General Info and Influences
The Australian dollar is the fifth most traded currency in the world and is popular with currency traders, because of the high interest rates in Australia, the freedom of the foreign exchange market from government intervention, the stability of Australia's economy and political system, and the view that the Australian dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies, especially because of its greater exposure to Asian economies and the commodities cycle.
The currency is commonly referred to by foreign-exchange traders as the "Aussie dollar".
Currency Exchange Locations
We have put together these guides to the major city CBDs where you will often find the best deals for buying foreign cash in Australia.
Recent AUD news articles
Both the Australian dollar and British pound sterling have had a hard time of late caught between the rock of the China/US trade war and the Brexit hard place.
Last update: 27 Aug, 2019
The RBA has cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1 percent in an effort to boost inflation. The Australian dollar is slightly stronger following the widely expected decision but is expected to lose 5–7 percent of its value before year-end.
Last update: 14 Aug, 2019
The British pound was the worst-performing major currency in the April-June period and remains “impossible to forecast” amid a Tory leadership battle that might force “no deal” or a general election.
Last update: 30 Jun, 2019