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British pound news and forecasts

Forecasts for the British pound change all the time, affected by news events such as Brexit and relative sentiment towards the UK economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of GBP in the currency markets.

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  British pound forecast

GBP in the markets

13 straight days of losses against the euro took the pound to a 3-month low of €1.133 on May-22, and similar losses against the US dollar meant a quote of $1.265 — a 4-month low.

Sterling weakness has returned following a breakdown in cross-party Brexit talks and a backlash against Theresa May’s “last chance” offer to British MPs — a fourth vote on her withdrawal deal which, if passed, will be followed by a legally-binding vote on a second referendum, plus some further, minor enhancements to the deal.

A fourth defeat for May’s plan is widely expected and would make no-deal much more realistic, especially since a defeat might spell the end for May and because she is likely to be replaced by a Brexit-supporting Conservative (Leave-voting Boris Johnson is the firm favourite). The new leader could endorse no-deal and that would be disastrous for the pound.

GBP/USD – 1 year trend

GBP predictions and forecasts



With such obvious uncertainties in play, analysts are reluctant to offer GBP forecasts. It is perhaps telling, though, that longstanding pound supporter Nomura decided in mid-May to terminate its buy recommendation on the currency.

Should Boris Johnson replace Theresa May as UK PM, a further decline in GBP/USD to $1.20 is “very feasible,” one analyst said.

No-deal would have the pound at $1.10 according to HSBC, 13 percent below May-22 rates.

GBP/USD – Historical Rates

1 Day-0.05%1.266222 May 2019
1 Week-1.09%1.279616 May 2019
1 Month-2.18%1.293823 Apr 2019
6 Months-1.29%1.282124 Nov 2018
1 Year-5.33%1.336923 May 2018
5 Years-24.81%1.683124 May 2014
10 Years-20.46%1.591225 May 2009

*For period to 23-May 21UTC when GBP/USD was 1.2656


GBP/EUR – Historical Rates

1 Day-0.27%1.135022 May 2019
1 Week-1.16%1.145216 May 2019
1 Month-1.8%1.152723 Apr 2019
6 Months+0.11%1.130724 Nov 2018
1 Year-0.86%1.141723 May 2018
5 Years-8.33%1.234824 May 2014
10 Years-0.4%1.136425 May 2009

*For period to 23-May 21UTC when GBP/EUR was 1.1319

You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to United Kingdom.


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Sterling in Trouble: Eighth Day of Losses Takes GBP to 3-Month Low

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The US-China trade war is hotting up and that’s bad news for the Australian dollar, which slipped on Monday to a 4-month low against the dollar, euro and yen.

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Posted to: Forecasts


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