Forecasts for the British pound change all the time, affected by news events such as Brexit and relative sentiment towards the UK economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of GBP in the currency markets.
GBP in the markets
13 straight days of losses against the euro took the pound to a 3-month low of €1.133 on May-22, and similar losses against the US dollar meant a quote of $1.265 — a 4-month low.
Sterling weakness has returned following a breakdown in cross-party Brexit talks and a backlash against Theresa May’s “last chance” offer to British MPs — a fourth vote on her withdrawal deal which, if passed, will be followed by a legally-binding vote on a second referendum, plus some further, minor enhancements to the deal.
A fourth defeat for May’s plan is widely expected and would make no-deal much more realistic, especially since a defeat might spell the end for May and because she is likely to be replaced by a Brexit-supporting Conservative (Leave-voting Boris Johnson is the firm favourite). The new leader could endorse no-deal and that would be disastrous for the pound.
GBP/USD – 1 year trend
GBP predictions and forecasts
With such obvious uncertainties in play, analysts are reluctant to offer GBP forecasts. It is perhaps telling, though, that longstanding pound supporter Nomura decided in mid-May to terminate its buy recommendation on the currency.
Should Boris Johnson replace Theresa May as UK PM, a further decline in GBP/USD to $1.20 is “very feasible,” one analyst said.
No-deal would have the pound at $1.10 according to HSBC, 13 percent below May-22 rates.
GBP/USD – Historical Rates
|1 Day||-0.05%||1.2662||22 May 2019|
|1 Week||-1.09%||1.2796||16 May 2019|
|1 Month||-2.18%||1.2938||23 Apr 2019|
|6 Months||-1.29%||1.2821||24 Nov 2018|
|1 Year||-5.33%||1.3369||23 May 2018|
|5 Years||-24.81%||1.6831||24 May 2014|
|10 Years||-20.46%||1.5912||25 May 2009|
*For period to 23-May 21UTC when GBP/USD was 1.2656
GBP/EUR – Historical Rates
|1 Day||-0.27%||1.1350||22 May 2019|
|1 Week||-1.16%||1.1452||16 May 2019|
|1 Month||-1.8%||1.1527||23 Apr 2019|
|6 Months||+0.11%||1.1307||24 Nov 2018|
|1 Year||-0.86%||1.1417||23 May 2018|
|5 Years||-8.33%||1.2348||24 May 2014|
|10 Years||-0.4%||1.1364||25 May 2009|
*For period to 23-May 21UTC when GBP/EUR was 1.1319
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to United Kingdom.
The British pound fell on Wednesday for a record thirteenth consecutive day against the euro. The currency is taking a Brexit-induced beating days before May’s half-term school break — a popular time in the UK for family holidays.
Last update: 22 May, 2019
The Australian dollar is now worth only 68.6¢ after another week of heavy losses, and now one senior analyst has predicted exchange rates in the “mid-60s” this year – rates not seen since 2009.
Posted: 18 May, 2019
The British pound fell on Wednesday towards a 3-month low against the euro and US dollar as attention turned back to Brexit and after lower-than-expected wage growth lessened prospects for a Bank of England rate hike.
Last update: 15 May, 2019
The US-China trade war is hotting up and that’s bad news for the Australian dollar, which slipped on Monday to a 4-month low against the dollar, euro and yen.
Last update: 13 May, 2019