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Canadian dollar (CAD) forecasts

Forecasts for the Canadian dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Canadian economy. This continually updated article reviews CAD bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.

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  Canadian dollar forecast

CAD in the markets

The Canadian dollar got a boost in the first half of May when jobs growth of 106,000 (for the month of April) was the best in 40 years. This drove the loonie away from multi-month lows near US$0.74 to US$0.746.

Other notable exchange rates in May included CAD/NZD, which rose to a 6-month high of NZ$1.13.

Unlike other oil-sensitive currencies, it is fair to say that the Canadian dollar has failed to take advantage of a thriving oil market (up 30 percent this year), with the market’s attention instead turned towards the global economic slowdown and the Canadian housing market, which, according to the IMF, is now as risky as it was during the 2007-08 financial crisis.

CAD cross-rate trends & forecasts

CAD to USDCAD to GBPCAD to EURCAD to INR

CAD to USD

Following May’s jobs data, based on the economy being in “way better shape” than the Bank of Canada currently believes, analysts at Scotiabank labelled the loonie as “egregiously” undervalued.

Weeks earlier, in April, forecasters at RBC said they expected sideways price action in USD/CAD until mid-year, after which the loonie probably weakens modestly towards C$1.36 by year-end.

CIBC was also predicting C$1.36 at the end of this year but saw further weakness to C$1.40 sometime in 2020 — C$1.40 is an exchange rate not seen since February 2016.

CAD/USD – 6 month chart
PeriodChange*CAD/USDDate
1 Day-0.24%0.744122 May 2019
1 Week-0.07%0.742816 May 2019
1 Month-0.31%0.744623 Apr 2019
6 Months-1.72%0.755324 Nov 2018
1 Year-4.7%0.778923 May 2018
5 Years-19.32%0.920124 May 2014
10 Years-16.51%0.889125 May 2009

*For period to 23-May 21UTC when CAD/USD was 0.7423

CAD to GBP

CAD/GBP – 6 month chart
PeriodChange*CAD/GBPDate
1 Day-0.2%0.587722 May 2019
1 Week+1.03%0.580516 May 2019
1 Month+1.91%0.575523 Apr 2019
6 Months-0.44%0.589124 Nov 2018
1 Year+0.67%0.582623 May 2018
5 Years+7.28%0.546724 May 2014
10 Years+4.98%0.558725 May 2009

*For period to 23-May 21UTC when CAD/GBP was 0.5865

CAD to EUR

CAD/EUR – 6 month chart
PeriodChange*CAD/EURDate
1 Day-0.48%0.667022 May 2019
1 Week-0.15%0.664816 May 2019
1 Month+0.06%0.663423 Apr 2019
6 Months-0.33%0.666024 Nov 2018
1 Year-0.21%0.665223 May 2018
5 Years-1.66%0.675024 May 2014
10 Years+4.55%0.634925 May 2009

*For period to 23-May 21UTC when CAD/EUR was 0.6638

CAD to INR

CAD/INR – 6 month chart
PeriodChange*CAD/INRDate
1 Day-0.24%51.827322 May 2019
1 Week-0.9%52.171516 May 2019
1 Month-0.47%51.949223 Apr 2019
6 Months-3%53.303124 Nov 2018
1 Year-2.84%53.217423 May 2018
5 Years-3.82%53.755724 May 2014
10 Years+23.14%41.986525 May 2009

*For period to 23-May 21UTC when CAD/INR was 51.7042

 
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to Canada.
 

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canadian-flag-Canadian-dollar-news-best-exchange-rates

After a friendless Friday, the Canadian dollar has continued to lose value at the start of the new week. Now worth C$1.332 per USD, the loonie is at a 12-day low, but it has far further to fall if CIBC’s fair value estimation of C$1.4 is anything to go by.

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