Forecasts for the Canadian dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Canadian economy. This continually updated article reviews CAD bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.
CAD in the markets
The Canadian dollar got a boost in the first half of May when jobs growth of 106,000 (for the month of April) was the best in 40 years. This drove the loonie away from multi-month lows near US$0.74 to US$0.746.
Other notable exchange rates in May included CAD/NZD, which rose to a 6-month high of NZ$1.13.
Unlike other oil-sensitive currencies, it is fair to say that the Canadian dollar has failed to take advantage of a thriving oil market (up 30 percent this year), with the market’s attention instead turned towards the global economic slowdown and the Canadian housing market, which, according to the IMF, is now as risky as it was during the 2007-08 financial crisis.
CAD cross-rate trends & forecasts
CAD to USD
Following May’s jobs data, based on the economy being in “way better shape” than the Bank of Canada currently believes, analysts at Scotiabank labelled the loonie as “egregiously” undervalued.
Weeks earlier, in April, forecasters at RBC said they expected sideways price action in USD/CAD until mid-year, after which the loonie probably weakens modestly towards C$1.36 by year-end.
CIBC was also predicting C$1.36 at the end of this year but saw further weakness to C$1.40 sometime in 2020 — C$1.40 is an exchange rate not seen since February 2016.
|1 Day||-0.24%||0.7441||22 May 2019|
|1 Week||-0.07%||0.7428||16 May 2019|
|1 Month||-0.31%||0.7446||23 Apr 2019|
|6 Months||-1.72%||0.7553||24 Nov 2018|
|1 Year||-4.7%||0.7789||23 May 2018|
|5 Years||-19.32%||0.9201||24 May 2014|
|10 Years||-16.51%||0.8891||25 May 2009|
*For period to 23-May 21UTC when CAD/USD was 0.7423
CAD to GBP
|1 Day||-0.2%||0.5877||22 May 2019|
|1 Week||+1.03%||0.5805||16 May 2019|
|1 Month||+1.91%||0.5755||23 Apr 2019|
|6 Months||-0.44%||0.5891||24 Nov 2018|
|1 Year||+0.67%||0.5826||23 May 2018|
|5 Years||+7.28%||0.5467||24 May 2014|
|10 Years||+4.98%||0.5587||25 May 2009|
*For period to 23-May 21UTC when CAD/GBP was 0.5865
CAD to EUR
|1 Day||-0.48%||0.6670||22 May 2019|
|1 Week||-0.15%||0.6648||16 May 2019|
|1 Month||+0.06%||0.6634||23 Apr 2019|
|6 Months||-0.33%||0.6660||24 Nov 2018|
|1 Year||-0.21%||0.6652||23 May 2018|
|5 Years||-1.66%||0.6750||24 May 2014|
|10 Years||+4.55%||0.6349||25 May 2009|
*For period to 23-May 21UTC when CAD/EUR was 0.6638
CAD to INR
|1 Day||-0.24%||51.8273||22 May 2019|
|1 Week||-0.9%||52.1715||16 May 2019|
|1 Month||-0.47%||51.9492||23 Apr 2019|
|6 Months||-3%||53.3031||24 Nov 2018|
|1 Year||-2.84%||53.2174||23 May 2018|
|5 Years||-3.82%||53.7557||24 May 2014|
|10 Years||+23.14%||41.9865||25 May 2009|
*For period to 23-May 21UTC when CAD/INR was 51.7042
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to Canada.
The Canadian dollar might be worth considerably more towards the end of this year based on research by Scotiabank analysts who describe the currency as being “egregiously” undervalued.
Last update: 13 May, 2019
A turbocharged US dollar is likely to be “stronger for longer” after reaching long-term highs against a host of major currencies, including the euro, Swiss franc and Swedish krona.
Last update: 25 Apr, 2019
Prospects for the Canadian dollar have turned “considerably to the downside” and the currency is likely to lose 5 percent of its value this year, TD Securities has said.
Last update: 19 Mar, 2019
After a friendless Friday, the Canadian dollar has continued to lose value at the start of the new week. Now worth C$1.332 per USD, the loonie is at a 12-day low, but it has far further to fall if CIBC’s fair value estimation of C$1.4 is anything to go by.
Last update: 4 Mar, 2019