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Euro (EUR) Forecasts

Forecasts for the euro change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the overall Eurozone economy. This continually updated article reviews EUR bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.

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  Euro forecast

EUR in the markets

Against the dollar and pound, the euro remains weak: rates between $1.11 and $1.12 haven’t been seen since June 2017, and a rate of £0.85 was only half a percent above a new 2-year low. The euro fared better against the Australian dollar, with EUR/AUD rates slightly above 2018’s average at A$1.595.

Euro weakness has been driven by Brexit uncertainties (a “flextension” means that Brexit has been pushed back until October) and has followed March’s meeting of the ECB, at which the central bank said it will not raise interest rates until 2020 as part of an effort to lift the eurozone economy out of this “period of continued [economic] weakness.”

EUR/USD – 6 month chart

EUR forecasts

With other central banks also turning dovish, the pace of euro declines is expected to slow in the coming months, or might even reverse.

For EUR/USD, in late April, Danske Bank was forecasting a rally of a few percent to $1.16 at year-end.

In May, Lloyds revised its year-end EUR/GBP forecast to £0.85, unchanged from May’s levels.

On Brexit, Nordea Research has said that “no deal” will put £0.95 in play, a Norway-type Brexit (“Norway plus”) or permanent customs union will lead to £0.81-0.83, and Theresa May’s deal should see £0.83-0.84.

You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to the Eurozone.

EUR/USD – Historical Rates

PeriodChange*EUR/USDDate
1 Day+0.22%1.115622 May 2019
1 Week+0.06%1.117316 May 2019
1 Month-0.39%1.122423 Apr 2019
6 Months-1.4%1.133924 Nov 2018
1 Year-4.52%1.170923 May 2018
5 Years-17.98%1.363124 May 2014
10 Years-20.16%1.400325 May 2009

*For period to 23-May 21UTC when EUR/USD was 1.1180

 

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