Forecasts for the euro change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the overall Eurozone economy. This continually updated article reviews EUR bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.
EUR in the markets
Against the dollar and pound, the euro remains weak: rates between $1.11 and $1.12 haven’t been seen since June 2017, and a rate of £0.85 was only half a percent above a new 2-year low. The euro fared better against the Australian dollar, with EUR/AUD rates slightly above 2018’s average at A$1.595.
Euro weakness has been driven by Brexit uncertainties (a “flextension” means that Brexit has been pushed back until October) and has followed March’s meeting of the ECB, at which the central bank said it will not raise interest rates until 2020 as part of an effort to lift the eurozone economy out of this “period of continued [economic] weakness.”
With other central banks also turning dovish, the pace of euro declines is expected to slow in the coming months, or might even reverse.
For EUR/USD, in late April, Danske Bank was forecasting a rally of a few percent to $1.16 at year-end.
In May, Lloyds revised its year-end EUR/GBP forecast to £0.85, unchanged from May’s levels.
On Brexit, Nordea Research has said that “no deal” will put £0.95 in play, a Norway-type Brexit (“Norway plus”) or permanent customs union will lead to £0.81-0.83, and Theresa May’s deal should see £0.83-0.84.
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to the Eurozone.
EUR/USD – Historical Rates
|1 Day||+0.22%||1.1156||22 May 2019|
|1 Week||+0.06%||1.1173||16 May 2019|
|1 Month||-0.39%||1.1224||23 Apr 2019|
|6 Months||-1.4%||1.1339||24 Nov 2018|
|1 Year||-4.52%||1.1709||23 May 2018|
|5 Years||-17.98%||1.3631||24 May 2014|
|10 Years||-20.16%||1.4003||25 May 2009|
*For period to 23-May 21UTC when EUR/USD was 1.1180
The British pound fell on Wednesday for a record thirteenth consecutive day against the euro. The currency is taking a Brexit-induced beating days before May’s half-term school break — a popular time in the UK for family holidays.
Last update: 22 May, 2019
Five banks have been fined a collective €1.07 billion by the European Commission for running a “cartel” that manipulated foreign exchange rates for financial gain.
Posted: 16 May, 2019
The US-China trade war is hotting up and that’s bad news for the Australian dollar, which slipped on Monday to a 4-month low against the dollar, euro and yen.
Last update: 13 May, 2019
Constructive Brexit talks between UK politicians have imparted a sense of renewed optimism that has lifted the British pound to a 2-week high against the dollar and to a 3-week high against the euro.
Last update: 3 May, 2019