Forecasts and predictions for the Hong Kong dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the HK economy. This continually updated article reviews HKD bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.
HKD in the markets
The Hong Kong dollar has gained value in 2019 despite the recent protests and also serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the US dollar, to which HKD is pegged, is attracting safe-haven inflows. By May-17, against a basket of important currencies, HKD was worth 2 percent more year-to-date, and was only 0.5 percent away from making a 2-year high.
HKD was doing particularly well against the Australian dollar. It was, at the time of writing, valued 18 percent higher than 2018 lows against AUD and needed only a further 2.3 percent to reach a 10-year high. Though HKD was meeting significant resistance in mid-May at the 5.4 per AUD level, a break of this could spark significant appreciation.
Scotiabank admitted defeat in April when it said that USD, and therefore HKD, was likely to be “stronger for longer.” It had long held a bearish view on both currencies.
HSBC said in May to expect higher HKD values relative to the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, and against riskier emerging market currencies.
In May, HSBC warned against thinking that USD, and therefore HKD, had gotten too high. The bank highlighted the “desolation and destruction” (an exaggeration) facing other economies, and the lack of value-maintaining currency alternatives.
Hong Kong dollar – Historical Rates
|7 Day||-0.1%||7.7773||14 Jan 2020|
|30 Day||-0.4%||7.7978||22 Dec 2019|
|3 Month||-0.9%||7.8418||23 Oct 2019|
|1 Year||-1%||7.8456||21 Jan 2019|
|5 Year||+0.2%||7.7527||22 Jan 2015|
|10 Year||0%||7.7713||23 Jan 2010|
*For period to 21-Jan 21UTC when USD/HKD was 7.7702
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to Hong Kong.
The threat of a proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq has pared back some of the recent gains of “risk-on” currencies.
Last update: 8 Jan, 2020
Both the Australian dollar and British pound sterling have had a hard time of late caught between the rock of the China/US trade war and the Brexit hard place.
Last update: 7 Jan, 2020
The RBA has cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1 percent in an effort to boost inflation. The Australian dollar is slightly stronger following the widely expected decision but is expected to lose 5–7 percent of its value before year-end.
Last update: 7 Jan, 2020
The British pound was the worst-performing major currency in the April-June period and remains “impossible to forecast” amid a Tory leadership battle that might force “no deal” or a general election.
Last update: 30 Jun, 2019