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Hong Kong dollar (HKD) forecasts for 2019

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Forecasts and predictions for the Hong Kong dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the HK economy. This continually updated article reviews HKD bank forecasts and popular cross-rate trends.

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Japanese yen forecast

HKD in the markets

The Hong Kong dollar has gained value in 2019 despite the recent protests and also serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the US dollar, to which HKD is pegged, is attracting safe-haven inflows. By May-17, against a basket of important currencies, HKD was worth 2 percent more year-to-date, and was only 0.5 percent away from making a 2-year high.

HKD was doing particularly well against the Australian dollar. It was, at the time of writing, valued 18 percent higher than 2018 lows against AUD and needed only a further 2.3 percent to reach a 10-year high. Though HKD was meeting significant resistance in mid-May at the 5.4 per AUD level, a break of this could spark significant appreciation.

USD/HKD – 6 month trend

HKD forecasts

Scotiabank admitted defeat in April when it said that USD, and therefore HKD, was likely to be “stronger for longer.” It had long held a bearish view on both currencies.

HSBC said in May to expect higher HKD values relative to the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, and against riskier emerging market currencies.

In May, HSBC warned against thinking that USD, and therefore HKD, had gotten too high. The bank highlighted the “desolation and destruction” (an exaggeration) facing other economies, and the lack of value-maintaining currency alternatives.

Hong Kong dollar – Historical Rates

PeriodChange*USD/HKDDate
1 Day+0.1%7.831119 Sep 2019
7 Day+0.2%7.820413 Sep 2019
30 Day-0.1%7.843321 Aug 2019
3 Month+0.3%7.813822 Jun 2019
1 Year-0.1%7.842920 Sep 2018
5 Year+1.1%7.751121 Sep 2014
10 Year+1.1%7.750422 Sep 2009

*For period to 20-Sep 21UTC when USD/HKD was 7.8383

 

You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to Hong Kong.

 

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