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Indian rupee (INR) forecasts for 2019

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Forecasts for the Indian rupee change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Indian economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of INR in the currency markets.

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Indian rupee forecast

INR in the markets

The rupee is doing remarkably well in what is normally a seasonally weak time of year and despite a 35 percent rise in the oil price this year (oil is India's largest import).

In early May, by the narrowest of margins, the rupee reached a 16-month high against the Australian dollar (₹48.4), before falling back slightly. It rose towards long-term highs against the euro (₹77.3) and was flat on the year against the US dollar (₹69.2), although it was 8 percent higher against the greenback than it had been in October of last year.

INR/USD – 6 month chart

INR forecasts

There are several reasons to favour rupee weakness in the coming months, the first being strong seasonal patterns: the rupee typically falls in value every second-quarter (April-to-June) due to India’s heightened gold demand heading into Akshaya Tritiya.

In addition, the decision by the US to end waivers on sanctions for countries buying oil from Iran (countries like India) might create quite a storm in the Indian economy.

There’s also the matter of May’s Indian elections, before which political uncertainty might weight on rupee valuations.

You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to India.

 

USD-INR – Historical Rates

PeriodChange*USD/INRDate
1 Day-0.3%71.392919 Sep 2019
7 Day+0.2%71.031013 Sep 2019
30 Day-0.3%71.448421 Aug 2019
3 Month+2.3%69.579822 Jun 2019
1 Year-0.7%71.725520 Sep 2018
5 Year+17%60.853321 Sep 2014
10 Year+48.6%47.918922 Sep 2009

*For period to 20-Sep 21UTC when USD/INR was 71.2060

 

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