Forecasts for the Indian rupee change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Indian economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of INR in the currency markets.
INR in the markets
The rupee is doing remarkably well in what is normally a seasonally weak time of year and despite a 35 percent rise in the oil price this year (oil is India's largest import).
In early May, by the narrowest of margins, the rupee reached a 16-month high against the Australian dollar (₹48.4), before falling back slightly. It rose towards long-term highs against the euro (₹77.3) and was flat on the year against the US dollar (₹69.2), although it was 8 percent higher against the greenback than it had been in October of last year.
There are several reasons to favour rupee weakness in the coming months, the first being strong seasonal patterns: the rupee typically falls in value every second-quarter (April-to-June) due to India’s heightened gold demand heading into Akshaya Tritiya.
In addition, the decision by the US to end waivers on sanctions for countries buying oil from Iran (countries like India) might create quite a storm in the Indian economy.
There’s also the matter of May’s Indian elections, before which political uncertainty might weight on rupee valuations.
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to India.
USD-INR – Historical Rates
|1 Day||-0.3%||71.3929||19 Sep 2019|
|7 Day||+0.2%||71.0310||13 Sep 2019|
|30 Day||-0.3%||71.4484||21 Aug 2019|
|3 Month||+2.3%||69.5798||22 Jun 2019|
|1 Year||-0.7%||71.7255||20 Sep 2018|
|5 Year||+17%||60.8533||21 Sep 2014|
|10 Year||+48.6%||47.9189||22 Sep 2009|
*For period to 20-Sep 21UTC when USD/INR was 71.2060
The RBA left interest rates on hold at 1.5 percent on Tuesday, spurring big gains for the Australian dollar, which had slipped beforehand to long-term lows against several major currencies. Roughly half of economists had expected rates to be cut by 25 basis points.
Last update: 7 May, 2019
Seasonal weakness, election uncertainty, strong technical support and oil market complications should be more than sufficient to spur an AUD/INR rally into mid-year.
Last update: 10 May, 2019
Cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technologies that support them are at the forefront of remittance-industry innovations, but these are under attack in India, where a complete crypto ban will be proposed in May.
Last update: 7 May, 2019
For the US dollar, analysts are predicting significant weakness in 2019. In contrast, the Canadian dollar will likely strengthen amid an energy market rebound, but under the same conditions the Indian rupee will slide to a record low. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, are trading higher but fail to inspire confidence.
Last update: 7 Jan, 2019