Forecasts for the Indian rupee change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Indian economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of INR in the currency markets.
INR in the markets
NAB told Bloomberg TV that it sees a recovery in Asian currencies in the 2nd half of the year if the coronavirus comes under control.
In 2019 the rupee did remarkably well despite a 35 percent rise in the oil price last year (oil is India's largest import).
In early May 2019, by the narrowest of margins, the rupee reached a 16-month high against the Australian dollar (₹48.4), before falling back slightly. It rose towards long-term highs against the euro (₹77.3) and was flat on the year against the US dollar (₹69.2), although it was 8 percent higher against the greenback than it had been in October of 2018.
There are several reasons to favour rupee weakness in the coming months, the first being strong seasonal patterns: the rupee typically falls in value every second-quarter (April-to-June) due to India’s heightened gold demand heading into Akshaya Tritiya.
In addition, the decision by the US to end waivers on sanctions for countries buying oil from Iran (countries like India) might create quite a storm in the Indian economy.
There’s also the matter of May’s Indian elections, before which political uncertainty might weight on rupee valuations.
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to India.
USD-INR – Historical Rates
|7 Day||-1.5%||76.5710||23 Mar 2020|
|30 Day||+4.5%||72.1750||29 Feb 2020|
|3 Month||+5.8%||71.3010||31 Dec 2019|
|1 Year||+8.7%||69.3793||31 Mar 2019|
|5 Year||+21%||62.3130||01 Apr 2015|
|10 Year||+68.4%||44.7693||02 Apr 2010|
*For period to 30-Mar 21UTC when USD/INR was 75.4102
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Last update: 7 May, 2019
Seasonal weakness, election uncertainty, strong technical support and oil market complications should be more than sufficient to spur an AUD/INR rally into mid-year.
Last update: 10 May, 2019
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Last update: 7 May, 2019
For the US dollar, analysts are predicting significant weakness in 2019. In contrast, the Canadian dollar will likely strengthen amid an energy market rebound, but under the same conditions the Indian rupee will slide to a record low. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, are trading higher but fail to inspire confidence.
Last update: 7 Jan, 2019