Forecasts for the New Zealand dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the New Zealand economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of NZD in the currency markets.
NZD in the markets
Growing fears of the coronavirus outbreak has moved the market into safer currencies such as the USD and away from AUD, NZD and CAD.
The threat of proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq also pared back some of the gains the Kiwi had made coming into the New Year.
In December the New Zealand dollar has climbed back to US$0.66 it's highest value since July.
Against the Australian dollar, jumped to A$0.96 after being as low as A$0.92 in early November before starting a strong recovery upto current levels above A$0.95.
Robbing New Zealand's currency of better gains in 2019 have been reduced risk appetite spurred on by an escalation in the US-China trade standoff, and high correlations with other weak currencies, including the Australian dollar and yuan.
Citigroup analysts said in June that the RBNZ will likely be a policy follower (if other central banks cut or threaten to cut rates, they will too) with the intent of keeping kiwi exchange rates at competitive levels for NZ businesses.
In 3 months’ time, Citi expects NZD/AUD, NZD/USD and NZD/EUR at A$0.955, $0.66 and €0.59 respectively.
Risks to the above forecasts come in the form of US-China trade tensions (New Zealand has very strong trade links with China) and any subsequent depreciation of the Chinese yuan because of NZD’s high correlations with Asian currencies.
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to New Zealand.
NZD/USD – Historical Rates
|1 Day||-0.3%||0.6343||24 Feb 2020|
|7 Day||-1.1%||0.6393||18 Feb 2020|
|30 Day||-3.8%||0.6573||26 Jan 2020|
|3 Month||-1.4%||0.6413||27 Nov 2019|
|1 Year||-8.2%||0.6885||25 Feb 2019|
|5 Year||-16%||0.7528||26 Feb 2015|
|10 Year||-9.2%||0.6963||27 Feb 2010|
*For period to 25-Feb 21UTC when NZD/USD was 0.6321
NZD/AUD – Historical Rates
|1 Day||-0.2%||0.9595||24 Feb 2020|
|7 Day||+0.3%||0.9551||18 Feb 2020|
|30 Day||-0.9%||0.9664||26 Jan 2020|
|3 Month||+1.1%||0.9475||27 Nov 2019|
|1 Year||-0.3%||0.9599||25 Feb 2019|
|5 Year||-0.8%||0.9653||26 Feb 2015|
|10 Year||+23%||0.7787||27 Feb 2010|
*For period to 25-Feb 21UTC when NZD/AUD was 0.9575
This week the US Dollar was touching three-year highs when valued against a basket of major currencies. The greenback’s traditional role as one of the safe-haven currencies is helped by a domestic economy that is largely immune to the threats of the coronavirus.
Last update: 22 Feb, 2020
The threat of a proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq has pared back some of the recent gains of “risk-on” currencies.
Last update: 8 Jan, 2020
Both the Australian dollar and British pound sterling have had a hard time of late caught between the rock of the China/US trade war and the Brexit hard place.
Last update: 7 Jan, 2020
The RBA has cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1 percent in an effort to boost inflation. The Australian dollar is slightly stronger following the widely expected decision but is expected to lose 5–7 percent of its value before year-end.
Last update: 7 Jan, 2020