Forecasts for the US dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of USD in the currency markets.
USD in the markets
The US dollar has held its value this year despite a serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others. After grim employment data on June-7, the Dollar Index was up 0.5 percent on the year (it had fallen 2 percent from May’s 2-year high).
As in other parts of the world, interest rate cuts are now expected in the US following a drastic shift in economic forecasts. At least two Fed cuts are expected this year, with the first most likely to come in July.
Taking the blame for the economic downturn is US President Donald Trump, whose trade policies have set a ball rolling that could wipe $455bn from global output according to the IMF.
US dollar forecasts
Though US interest rates are expected to fall, the US dollar might not come down as far or as quickly as some believe because monetary policies are being eased all over the world, and because the dollar attracts safe haven inflows (there’s an absence of good dollar alternatives).
HSBC said to expect a stronger USD relative to the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, and against riskier emerging market currencies.
A June Reuters poll of analysts had EUR/USD at $1.17 by mid-2020.
USD/EUR – Historical Rates
|1 Day||+0.2%||0.9062||11 Nov 2019|
|7 Day||+0.6%||0.9030||05 Nov 2019|
|30 Day||+0.2%||0.9068||13 Oct 2019|
|3 Month||+1.2%||0.8974||14 Aug 2019|
|1 Year||+2%||0.8908||12 Nov 2018|
|5 Year||+13.3%||0.8015||13 Nov 2014|
|10 Year||+35.1%||0.6720||14 Nov 2009|
*For period to 12-Nov 21UTC when USD/EUR was 0.9082
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to the United States.
Key Takeaways from the ACCC inquiry into currency conversion services. BestExchangeRates referenced among comparison sites playing an important role in customer awareness of the excessive currency margins charged by banks.
Last update: 1 Oct, 2019
Both the Australian dollar and British pound sterling have had a hard time of late caught between the rock of the China/US trade war and the Brexit hard place.
Last update: 27 Aug, 2019
The RBA has cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1 percent in an effort to boost inflation. The Australian dollar is slightly stronger following the widely expected decision but is expected to lose 5–7 percent of its value before year-end.
Last update: 14 Aug, 2019
The British pound was the worst-performing major currency in the April-June period and remains “impossible to forecast” amid a Tory leadership battle that might force “no deal” or a general election.
Last update: 30 Jun, 2019