Forecasts for the US dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of USD in the currency markets.
USD in the markets
The US dollar has held its value this year despite a serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others. After grim employment data on June-7, the Dollar Index was up 0.5 percent on the year (it had fallen 2 percent from May’s 2-year high).
As in other parts of the world, interest rate cuts are now expected in the US following a drastic shift in economic forecasts. At least two Fed cuts are expected this year, with the first most likely to come in July.
Taking the blame for the economic downturn is US President Donald Trump, whose trade policies have set a ball rolling that could wipe $455bn from global output according to the IMF.
US dollar forecasts
Though US interest rates are expected to fall, the US dollar might not come down as far or as quickly as some believe because monetary policies are being eased all over the world, and because the dollar attracts safe haven inflows (there’s an absence of good dollar alternatives).
HSBC said to expect a stronger USD relative to the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, and against riskier emerging market currencies.
A June Reuters poll of analysts had EUR/USD at $1.17 by mid-2020.
USD/EUR – Historical Rates
|1 Day||+0.32%||0.8880||18 Jul 2019|
|1 Week||+0.5%||0.8864||12 Jul 2019|
|1 Month||+0.09%||0.8900||19 Jun 2019|
|6 Months||+1.24%||0.8799||20 Jan 2019|
|1 Year||+3.82%||0.8580||19 Jul 2018|
|5 Years||+21.08%||0.7357||20 Jul 2014|
|10 Years||+26.48%||0.7043||21 Jul 2009|
*For period to 19-Jul 21UTC when USD/EUR was 0.8908
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to the United States.
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