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US dollar news(USD) forecasts for 2019

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Forecasts for the US dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of USD in the currency markets.

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US dollar forecast

USD in the markets

The US dollar has held its value this year despite a serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others. After grim employment data on June-7, the Dollar Index was up 0.5 percent on the year (it had fallen 2 percent from May’s 2-year high).

As in other parts of the world, interest rate cuts are now expected in the US following a drastic shift in economic forecasts. At least two Fed cuts are expected this year, with the first most likely to come in July.

Taking the blame for the economic downturn is US President Donald Trump, whose trade policies have set a ball rolling that could wipe $455bn from global output according to the IMF.

USD/EUR – 6 month chart

US dollar forecasts

Though US interest rates are expected to fall, the US dollar might not come down as far or as quickly as some believe because monetary policies are being eased all over the world, and because the dollar attracts safe haven inflows (there’s an absence of good dollar alternatives).

HSBC said to expect a stronger USD relative to the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, and against riskier emerging market currencies.

A June Reuters poll of analysts had EUR/USD at $1.17 by mid-2020.

 

USD/EUR – Historical Rates

PeriodChange*USD/EURDate
1 Day+0.2%0.906211 Nov 2019
7 Day+0.6%0.903005 Nov 2019
30 Day+0.2%0.906813 Oct 2019
3 Month+1.2%0.897414 Aug 2019
1 Year+2%0.890812 Nov 2018
5 Year+13.3%0.801513 Nov 2014
10 Year+35.1%0.672014 Nov 2009

*For period to 12-Nov 21UTC when USD/EUR was 0.9082

You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to the United States.

 

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