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US dollar news and forecasts

Forecasts for the US dollar change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US economy. This continually updated article reviews the latest forecasts from banks and FX experts as well as news and recent movements of USD in the currency markets.

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  US dollar forecast

USD in the markets

The US dollar has benefitted this year despite some quite serious escalations in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others. By mid-May, the Dollar Index was nearly 2 percent higher year-to-date; it was only 0.5 percent away from making a 2-year high.

The greenback’s 2019 strength has come in spite of a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve, which said in March it expects no interest rate increase this year. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and many other central banks have also turned dovish, removing some of the policy-based incentives for selling USD.

In May, HSBC warned against thinking that the dollar has got too high. The bank highlighted the “desolation and destruction” (an exaggeration) facing other economies and currencies. “You can never get too high,” the bank’s chief analyst said. “What would you want to buy out there if not dollars?”

USD/EUR – 6 month chart

US dollar forecasts

Scotiabank admitted defeat in April when it said that the dollar was likely to be “stronger for longer.” It had long held a bearish view on the dollar.

HSBC said in May to expect higher USD values relative to the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar, and against riskier emerging market currencies.

 

USD/EUR – Historical Rates

PeriodChange*USD/EURDate
1 Day-0.23%0.896422 May 2019
1 Week-0.08%0.895016 May 2019
1 Month+0.37%0.891023 Apr 2019
6 Months+1.41%0.881924 Nov 2018
1 Year+4.72%0.854023 May 2018
5 Years+21.91%0.733624 May 2014
10 Years+25.23%0.714125 May 2009

*For period to 23-May 21UTC when USD/EUR was 0.8943

You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to the United States.

 

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Posted to: Forecasts

 
   

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