FX markets were in full consolidation mode overnight
The majors were choppy but activity was confined to this week’s week-defined ranges. The Paris terrorist attack and uncertainty around the April 23, French election kept traders on the sidelines. The US dollar opened in New York with tiny gains against EUR, GBP, and NZD. It was almost unchanged against CAD and CHF while AUD and JPY inched higher.
In Asia and Europe, the antipodeans bopped around inside narrow ranges with a AUDUSD getting a bit of support from slightly higher iron ore prices.
USDJPY slipped ion a bit of risk aversion selling after the Paris terrorist attack but remains well above this week’s 108.17 low.
EURUSD traders ignored better than expected Eurozone PMI data and sold EURUSD from 1.0736 to 1.0690. concerns that the Paris terrorist attack could affect Sunday’s election results is behind the move.
The UK Retail Sales report was weak. (March Retail Sales -1.8% vs. forecast -0.2%) GBPUSD dropped from 1.2830 to 1.2783
USDCAD traders should be busy, at least for a little while, following this morning’s inflation report. Canada March CPI is expected to be 1.8%, year over year, down from 2.0% posted in February. If CPI surprises to the upside, USDCAD will decline on increased expectations that the BoC will hike rates in Q4. If CPI surprises to the downside, USDCAD will rally, in the believe that the BoC is right to be cautious.
The US data includes Markit Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales. However, French election uncertainty suggests that FX trading action in New York won’t be any different than what occurred in Europe and Asia.
|Close 4:00 pm EDT-Open 6:00 am EDT|
USDCAD Technical outlook:
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.3420 and looking for a break of resistance in the 1.3490-95 area to extend gains to 1.3550 and then 1.3600. A move below 1.3460 would extend losses to 1.3420 and then 1.3360. If 1.3360 breaks it would suggest that a short-term top is in place at 1.3495 and lead to 1.3260-1.3490 consolidation
Today’s Range 1.3420-1.3520
Chart: USDCAD 30 minute
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