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In early August the US labels China a "currency manipulator" pushing the GBP/AUD rate back up through the 1.8 level. Brexit and 2019's RBA policy shift are the dominating themes for GBP/AUD. A "no deal" Brexit is likely to induce exchange rates near A$1.60, HSBC has said.

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GBP to USD Forecasts

British Pound Sterling to Australian dollar bank forecasts

In early August the Australian dollar sunk to a 10 year low of 67¢ (Aug-7) to the US dollar. This was due to the RBA twice cutting interest rates plus the offshore yuan breaking the symbolic and closely watched USD/CNY = 7.0 exchange rate, after the trade war flared up again and the US labelled China a “currency manipulator”.

The result of this trade war is negative more for the Aussie than for sterling so the GBP/AUD rate changed direction and broke back up through the 1.8 level on Aug-7.

However, with such obvious Brexit related uncertainties in play, analysts are reluctant to offer GBP forecasts. It is perhaps telling, though, that longstanding pound supporter Nomura decided in mid-May to terminate its buy recommendation on the currency.

Should Boris Johnson replace Theresa May as UK PM, a further decline in GBP/AUD below 1.75 is “very feasible,” one analyst said.

No-deal would have GBP/AUD at 1.60 according to HSBC.

You can read more about GBP cross-rate forecasts here GBP Trends and Forecasts for 2019.

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