Pound Sterling: GBP Advances on Surprise Services PMI Growth
The Pound has put in some gains today, rising against the Euro, US Dollar and Australian Dollar.
This favourable performance follows the news that UK services sector activity in June rose by more than expected.
Economists had forecast no change at 54 points, but the reading instead rose to 55.1.
As with Tuesday’s construction sector PMI, this reading has had a mixed reception but it still raised confidence among Pound traders and boosted GBP demand.
The week’s last UK economic event will be a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney, who will be speaking on Thursday morning.
If Mr Carney mentions the services PMI in a positive way and hints at an August interest rate hike, then the Pound could rise further against its currency peers.
Euro: EUR Exchange Rates Decline on Mixed Activity Readings
Despite a number of supportive Eurozone data releases today, the Euro has still lost ground to the Pound, US Dollar and a number of other peers.
On the plus side, finalised Eurozone PMI readings for June have risen above forecast levels.
Less helpfully, however, business optimism has fallen to the lowest level in over a year.
This is being partly blamed on the risk of a US-EU trade war escalating further and harming Eurozone and EU consumers and businesses in the process.
The Euro might, however, be able to shake off its current weakness on Thursday morning; if June’s retail PMI shows as-forecast growth then the single currency could advance against its peers.
US Dollar: Signs of US Trade War Escalation Limit USD Exchange Rate Gains
Although there is a looming threat of another escalation in the US-China trade war, the US Dollar has still posted gains against the Euro and traded tightly against the Pound today.
This mixed performance is a result of the latest US trade policy news, with it being reported that China is poised to impose tariffs against US goods coming into China, before the US can respond in kind.
Both nations have threatened to impose tariffs worth hundreds of billions of dollars against each other, but so far there hasn’t been any firm action.
If China does ‘blink first’ and enact its planned tariffs on Friday then the US Dollar could fall sharply against its regular currency peers.
Australian Dollar: AUD Appreciates on Supportive Retail Sales Data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has risen against the Euro and US Dollar today, while holding its ground against the equally strong Pound.
This generally positive performance comes after the release of Australian retail sales data, which has shown an above-forecast rise in sales activity during May.
The Australian Dollar could consolidate gains later this week, when a construction activity index comes out on Thursday evening.
This is tipped to show higher activity during June, which could raise demand for the Australian Dollar.
New Zealand Dollar: IMF Report Raises Trader Confidence in NZD
Today’s New Zealand Dollar movement has been positive on all counts, with the NZD appreciating against the Pound, Euro and US Dollar.
This favourable movement has been caused by a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report on the NZ economy, which has been positive for the most part.
The message is that New Zealand should continue a slow but steady pace of growth; the hope is that current risks to the housing market and international trade could be mitigated in the future.
The next direct NZ data isn’t due until 12 July, when a manufacturing activity reading for June will be released.
The data is expected to show a slight increase in factory activity, which could raise NZD demand.
Canadian Dollar: Uncertainty about NAFTA Talks Devalues CAD
Today’s Canadian Dollar movement has been broadly disappointing for CAD investors, with an advance against the Euro being countered by losses against the Pound and US Dollar.
This low demand for the CAD follows the conclusion of Mexico’s recent presidential election.
With a new populist leader set to take over, talks over the future of the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) look set to be anything but easy.
There are fears that the talks, which will include the US, Mexico and Canada, might turn out poorly, which would end up harming Canadian economic stability.
Canada exports more to the US than it imports; if the NAFTA renegotiation talks collapse then Canada potentially has a lot to lose.
The Canadian Dollar could however recover on Friday afternoon if jobs market data for June shows falling unemployment and greater business activity during the month.