Market Outlook for the US dollar
26-January-19: 2018 was a reasonable year for the dollar. Measured by the US Dollar Index, the greenback appreciated by 4 percent, which was much better than 2017’s 10 percent loss. It was, though, something of a stuttering end to 2018 and the dollar has had mixed fortunes in early 2019.
In December, after lifting US interest rates to 2.25-2.5 percent, the Fed lowered its expectations for future hikes due to so-called “cross currents” (China, Brexit, trade wars etc.). Skepticism among analysts over future Fed hikes has for some time been the main reason for dollar pessimism for 2019, but now, there is also the prospect of a US economic slowdown to contend with.
“A slowdown in the economy is likely to weigh on USD particularly in the second half of this year,” a CIBC researcher said in January.
Of the same opinion was an expert at ING, who argued that the dollar is soon to “embark on a gradual long-term bearish trend.”
January’s extended US government shutdown also has dollar-negative ramifications. Not only is the shutdown likely to hit first-quarter GDP growth, disagreements within Congress bode poorly for the future of potentially inflationary fiscal spending.
Read our Guide to the US dollar currency.
Recent US Dollar Updates
Japan Allows Fintech Payments Specialists to Compete with Banks

The Japanese FSA has announced it will finally remove a ¥1 million (US$9,000) cap on cross-border money transfers handled by non-banking entities, paving the way for a major overhaul of Japan’s remittance industry.
21 Feb, 2019 by - Last updated:21 Feb, 2019
Pound at 2-Week High Ahead of May-Juncker Brexit Meeting

The British pound was in high demand on Tuesday ahead of an important meeting between British PM Theresa May and EU officials, at which investors are hoping for a Brexit breakthrough.
19 Feb, 2019 by - Last updated:19 Feb, 2019
Euro to Strike 20-Month Low This Week; $1.12 Beckons

Those intending to pick up euros this week should consider heeding warnings offered by MUFG. The bank expects the euro to move towards cheaper levels in the coming days and it would therefore be unwise to pay rates offered on Monday.
18 Feb, 2019 by
HSBC Cuts Australian Dollar Forecast; Aussie to Buy Only US66¢ at Year-End

The forecast is stormy with the embattled Australian dollar set to lose a further 7 per cent of its value and end the year buying only US66¢, analysts at HSBC have said. A decline into the mid-60s would have the Aussie trading at levels not seen in a decade.
15 Feb, 2019 by - Last updated:20 Feb, 2019
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