Softening US Treasury yields surprised the markets last week, shifting tailwinds away from the US dollar towards risk-on currencies.
Biden’s upcoming climate summit may also help commodity currencies like AUD & CAD exposed to copper/aluminium that play key roles in electric vehicles and solar/wind power.
AUDUSD at 0.7779 has risen 0.9% above its 90-day average, range 0.7582-0.7976. 7D▲+2.1% 30D▲HIGH AUD-USD Rates
The Australian dollar enjoyed a sharp uptick last week, advancing above US77c through resistance amid a heightened demand for risk and lower US Treasury yields. The opening of the Trans-Tasman bubble between Australia and New Zealand also offers some hopeful signs for the AUD. AUD Markets
The Euro continues to struggle in 2021 against the Aussie dollar with AUD/EUR near 2-YEAR HIGHS (over €0.64) due to the Aussie dollar strength and uncertainties over the Eurozone Covid vaccine roll-out. AUD-EUR Forecasts
GBPUSD at 1.3830 is near its 90-day average, range 1.3644-1.4147. GBP-USD Rates
The coronavirus pandemic had replaced Brexit in the headlines for most of last year. In 2021 the pound has held or even improved its value while markets sort through the aftermath of Brexit and the improved vaccine response from the UK. GBP Markets
ING predict GBP/USD should breach 1.50 this year. While risks remain in place (the negative headline news around the Scottish independence referendum; the ongoing risk of tariffs should UK government choose to deviate from EU labour laws) GBP-USD Forecasts
CADUSD at 0.7994 has risen 0.9% above its 90-day average, range 0.7782-0.8060. 30D▲HIGH CAD-USD Rates
Canadian Dollar exchange rates have gained amid Canada’s economic outlook and recovering oil prices. Early success in controlling COVID-19 has helped the Canadian economy to rebound as massive government aid boosted consumer spending and low interest rates fueled a surge in the housing market. CAD Markets
If risk sentiment continues to improve, the CAD is well placed to extend recent gains. In the longer term, there is a perception Canada will enjoy a renewed close trade relationship with the US, with Biden as US President. USD-CAD Forecasts
BER compares exchange rates from banks and FX specialists.
EURUSD at 1.1954 is just below its 90-day average, range 1.1718-1.2174. EUR-USD Rates
April has been a good month for the Euro – despite Europe still struggling with third Covid waves. But recent higher European vaccination gives markets confidence in a European recovery later in the quarter. EUR Markets
The pound strength has hit a snag in April on concerns relating to AstraZeneca shot – which the U.K. is heavily dependent on – while the euro has strengthened on good immunisation numbers coming out of the eurozone earlier than expected. GBP-EUR Forecasts
USDINR at 74.58 has risen 2.0% above its 90-day average, range 72.29-75.18. USD-INR Rates
The Reserve Bank of India’s announcement of a huge government bond purchase programme in April has ended the Indian rupee’s resilience to U.S. dollar strength and other currencies such as GBP and AUD. INR Markets
The RBI’s QE announcement ended the Indian rupee’s good run versus the U.S. dollar sending it back below 74 to the greenback. USD-INR Forecasts
NZDUSD at 0.7138 is just below its 90-day average, range 0.6956-0.7443. NZD-USD Rates
NAB’s forecast for NZD/USD is for the kiwi to rise to 0.76 by the end of the year against the greenback. NZD Markets
National Australia Bank (NAB) have revised upwards their Aussie/Kiwi dollar forecasts now expecting the AUD/NZD rate at NZ$1.09 by June 2021, up from their previous forecast of NZ$1.06. AUD-NZD Forecasts
The U.S. Dollar Index at 91.68 is just above its 90-day average, range 90.04-93.28. US-Dollar index
The dollar ended last week falling to 1 Month lows. Risk sentiment tilted towards higher risk assets and currencies as US data showed strong signs of growth in several key sectors of the economy. Low US Treasury yields of 1.7% make the dollar less attractive in comparison to other investments. USD Markets