The Norwegian krone was the best performing G10 currency on Monday. The krone benefitted from better-than-expected inflation data and an uptick in European sentiment that followed this weekend’s Swedish election and Michel Barnier's prediction that a Brexit deal will be concluded within 6-8 weeks.
Collectively, respective gains on Monday of 1 percent and 0.5 percent against the dollar and euro marked the krone’s best single-day performance in three months. The krone beat the British pound into first place among the G10 currencies following USD/NOK and EUR/NOK’s declines to 8.37 and 9.71, and the Norwegian currency still has plenty more in the locker, Danske Bank reports.
“We still believe in krone appreciation in the coming months,” Danske’s research team wrote on Monday.
“To us, Norges Bank initiating its hiking cycle marks an important fundamental trigger for sending the overvalued EUR/NOK lower [for sending the krone higher].”
The Norges Bank’s hawkish bias would have firmed on Monday morning after Statistics Norway reported inflation at a twenty-month high of 3.4 percent.
“Indeed, if we do not see [currency] appreciation, we believe it would argue for even faster interest rate hikes, which we would expect to support the krone in the absence of external shocks,” argues Danske.
We’ll take that last statement as a win-win for krone bulls!
Per Danske Bank’s forecasts, the euro will buy only 9.1 kroner this time next year, which represents further appreciation of nearly 7 percent against its European cousin.
As mentioned, heading up the best of the rest on Monday was the British pound, which jumped on July’s above-forecast economic growth of 0.3 percent and which made the most of comments made by the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.
Sterling gained 0.8 percent to buy 1.303 dollars, and roughly 0.4 percent to have the euro buying only 0.89 pounds (GBP/EUR 1.124).
Relative to the euro, FX technical traders could have grabbed the greatest possible buying price for pounds on Monday—a EUR/GBP rate of 0.8957 to be precise (GBP/EUR 1.1164)—after this important European cross rate retested with absolute precision the neckline of an important Head and Shoulders pattern.