This is the current AUD-USD mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-USD exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs USD, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and United States Dollar news and forecasts.
19-February-19: Since a flash crash in early January which saw the Australian dollar briefly trade at a 10-year low, the Aussie has recovered and then stabilized in the US71-72¢ region, near the average rate of the past 6 months.
Of late, the outlook for the Australian economy, and therefore for the Australian dollar, has taken a turn for the worse: the RBA has slashed growth and inflation forecasts and markets have moved to price in a near-100 percent chance of an interest rate cut before the year is out.
In February, HSBC cut its AUD/USD forecast to just US66¢, nearly 20 percent below 2018’s high of US81.36¢. AUD rates in the mid-60s haven’t been seen since the great financial crisis a decade ago.
In January, a senior researcher at BNP Paribas said that the Australian dollar would “get absolutely crucified and could suffer a 25-30 percent [long-term] fall.”
Also in January, Capital Economics cuts its AUD/USD year-end forecast to just US60¢.
26-January-19: 2018 was a reasonable year for the dollar. Measured by the US Dollar Index, the greenback appreciated by 4 percent, which was much better than 2017’s 10 percent loss. It was, though, something of a stuttering end to 2018 and the dollar has had mixed fortunes in early 2019.
In December, after lifting US interest rates to 2.25-2.5 percent, the Fed lowered its expectations for future hikes due to so-called “cross currents” (China, Brexit, trade wars etc.). Skepticism among analysts over future Fed hikes has for some time been the main reason for dollar pessimism for 2019, but now, there is also the prospect of a US economic slowdown to contend with.
“A slowdown in the economy is likely to weigh on USD particularly in the second half of this year,” a CIBC researcher said in January.
Of the same opinion was an expert at ING, who argued that the dollar is soon to “embark on a gradual long-term bearish trend.”
January’s extended US government shutdown also has dollar-negative ramifications. Not only is the shutdown likely to hit first-quarter GDP growth, disagreements within Congress bode poorly for the future of potentially inflationary fiscal spending.
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