This is the current AUD-USD mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-USD exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs USD, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and United States Dollar news and forecasts.
April 25: The Aussie dollar was in the trenches on Anzac day after a disappointing inflation figure saw the Australian dollar plunge 1 per cent. The headline inflation was below estimates for a 0.2 per cent rise and unchanged from the previous quarter. This has prompted predictions the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut rates at its next meeting in May, in the middle of an election campaign. This is causing headwinds for the Aussie.
Prior to this inflation induced drop, improved risk appetite, thriving commodities markets and better data from China helped lift the Australian dollar through March and into the second half of April. Against the US dollar, the Aussie was quoted at US$0.715 on April-22.
In March, both Westpac and JP Morgan predicted an Aussie slide to US$0.68 in the second half of the year. Those banks were at least more optimistic than HSBC, which argued in April for US$0.66 based on housing market weakness, high debt-to-GDP levels and continued strength in the US dollar.
Bearishness wasn’t unanimous, though, with NAB forecasting Aussie appreciation at least until mid-year; it predicted US$0.74 by the end of June.
The RBA will be happy with a weaker currency, HSBC said. The central bank has recently shifted to a dovish bias (what should be an across-the-board negative for AUD), saying lower Australian interest rates will “likely be appropriate” if inflation doesn’t pick up.
In the final week of April, the Dollar Index smashed through a major resistance point at 97.70 and broke towards a 2-year high of 98.25. The index was up 2 percent year-to-date and was 11 percent higher than 2018’s low.
2019’s dollar gains have come chiefly at the expense of the euro, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona, which all trade at or near multi-year lows. USD is also inflicting pain on the Australian dollar and other important currencies.
The greenback’s 2019 strength has come in spite of a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve, which said in March it expects no interest rate increase this year. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and many other central banks have also turned dovish, removing any incentive for selling USD.
Scotiabank admitted defeat in April when it said that the dollar was likely to be “stronger for longer.” It had long held a bearish view on the dollar.
Bloomberg Research warned in April of potential for a large dollar move, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in April at a 5-year low.
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