Currency news and forecasts for British Pound Sterling and Australian Dollar
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the GBP vs AUD, you should pay attention to both British Pound Sterling and Australian Dollar news and forecasts.
British Pound Sterling (GBP) - Market news and forecasts
10-December-18: UK politics was in a state of disarray in December and a no-deal Brexit was looking ever more likely. As a result, sterling struck a 20-month low against the dollar ($1.251) and a 3-1/2-month low against the euro (€1.1). Against each of its peers, sterling had been worth 17 percent more prior to the UK’s EU referendum in June 2016.
The Bank of England has predicted a shocking 25 percent loss in the pound’s value in the event of a “disorderly” no-deal Brexit, under which there will be serious border delays and a marked loss of confidence in Britain’s financial institutions.
In the more likely event of a milder, “disruptive” no-deal Brexit, under which goods face tariffs but flow somewhat easily, sterling still loses 15 percent, the BoE believes.
How likely is no-deal? It’s highly likely unless Prime Minister May achieves a time-limited backstop; British MPs will not accept much else. This will be difficult for May to achieve — EU negotiators have already said that their previous offer was the last and only offer — and little time remains, with Brexit scheduled for March-29.
Australian Dollar (AUD) - Market news and forecasts
November-26: In the weeks leading up to this report, the Australian dollar was among the best performing global currencies. A broader 2018 view will, though, show a currency that is struggling. The good news is that the Aussie’s prospects for 2019 remain good.
Important for AUD in November was the break of an important technical trendline that demarcated the 2018 downtrend. Between January and late October, the currency lost nearly 14 percent against the US dollar to trade at a 2-1/2-year low of $0.702. It had recovered by the time of this report into the $0.72s. Similar could be said of AUD’s performance against the euro.
Easing trade tensions between the US and China was another big positive for AUD in November.
Inaction on interest rates from the RBA has lended itself to lower AUD exchange rates but this will change next year. The inevitability of higher Australian interest rates will become the narrative in mid-2019, thinks Citibank, and this will drive capital into AUD and force its price up to $0.77. CIBC expressed a similar view in November, albeit with a slightly lower mid-19 forecast of $0.76.