Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, USD/KRW sits above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range, supported by a firmer US growth backdrop and Korea's cautious policy stance.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The US Fed is expected to ease toward a neutral stance this year, while the Bank of Korea stays focused on inflation risks and won volatility.
- Macro factor: Upcoming US payrolls and unemployment data will influence the Fed path and USD strength; a surprise in jobs could lift the dollar, while a softer print could ease rate expectations.
- Policy backdrop: Korean authorities have signaled readiness to intervene to stabilise the won if volatility persists, and ongoing inflation concerns keep policymakers vigilant.
Range: likely to drift within the three-month range, with a bias toward testing the upper end if US data stays firm and financial conditions remain supportive.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Stronger US payrolls or a hawkish Fed tilt that keeps USD firm.
- Downside risk: Korea's stabilization measures take effect or softer US data easing Fed expectations.
