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Property debt crisis in China, central bank bond policy and the energy crisis are combining for a volatile October - it is ever thus!
Fears Chinese mega developer Evergrande’s collapse will spark a contagion event and the ongoing European gas crisis has hit confidence.
Volatility returned to the currency markets last week with the Australian and New Zealand Dollar falling the hardest against the Greenback (both down 1W -3.0%).
Speculation abounds on whether the RBNZ will be the first to hike rates, this helped the NZD to rise to 1 year highs versus the Aussie dollar.
Last week’s big event was the strong US Non-Farms Payrolls report for July.
The British Pound GBP was a mover and shaker last week, hitting HIGHS against both the USD (30-DAY), EUR (90-DAY) and other major FX.
Forecasts for the Philippine peso change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Philippine economy.
US Non-Farm Payrolls report was a mixed result - the Unemployment Rate moved higher but Wages slipped.
Fed Officials mixed opinions following last week’s hawkish bent reduces markets perception of sooner rate rises.
Last week the US Federal Reserve moved its growth forecasts higher and brought forward the timing of its interest rate hikes to 2023.
Review of Currency Market trends and news from last week.
On Thursday Turkey’s central bank finally caved into financial markets and jacked up interest rates by a hefty 4.75 per cent raising the benchmark rate to 15 per cent promising to remain tough on inflation.
There’s life in the old dog yet. The Philippine peso, a currency that has repeatedly made news for the wrong reasons, is among the best performers of the past month. Respective gains of 3.3 percent and 6.2 percent over the past month against the US dollar and euro have given holders of pesos cause for […]
A gain last week of 1.9 percent marked the Australian dollar’s best weekly performance versus the US dollar since December. The Aussie rebound continued with a touch of the $0.73 handle on Friday. Australia’s currency had been worth less than $0.71 just 10 days earlier. It settled for the week at $0.7285. Further to gains […]
It was a busy week for financial markets; one in which central banks disappointed, entire countries were in crisis, new leaders were elected, commodities thrived and Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran. With that said, emerging market currencies were erratic last week, and generally lost value, none more so than the Argentine peso which fell on […]
Thursday and Friday saw the Swiss franc slide through the symbolic 1.2 per euro level at which the Swiss National Bank capped the franc’s value prior to “Francogeddon” in January 2015. The franc has weakened steadily since it traded at 0.965 per euro in the aftermath of the SNB’s abrupt abolition of the currency cap, […]
It could hardly have been a worse start to 2018 for the Philippine peso. On Monday, the peso traded at 52.5 per dollar for the first time since the summer of 2006, and year-to-date values show it bettering only the Argentine peso in the list of the world’s worst performing currencies. The peso has lost […]
The Philippine peso was best in Asia last week and continues to defy pessimistic forecasts from earlier in the year. USD/PHP’s move to 49.99 on Friday was the pair’s first journey through the psychologically important rate of 50 since June, and a 3.2% appreciation in the peso’s value since November 1st places it second only […]
Ahead of major announcements in the coming days, investors were in surprisingly good spirits on Wednesday, indicated by a stronger New Zealand dollar, won, rupee and a faltering yen. Weakness in Asia-Pac FX would have been forgiven ahead of Thursday’s announcements by the FOMC (Wednesday in the US and Europe), Bank of England and Donald […]
The hearts of those holding Philippine pesos were broken on Tuesday after the currency slipped to its weakest level against the dollar in more than eleven years. The peso weakened by 33 centavos to 51.85 per dollar. The peso wasn’t alone in falling against the dollar; most Asia-Pac currencies did the same as the greenback […]
The week ahead should be an interesting one for Asian financial markets, with the highlights being China’s 19th National Congress, the latest numbers for Chinese economic growth, the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy meeting and Japanese trade data. Further to that, and to the events outlined below, investors should look with care to Federal Reserve […]
With the unsurprising exception of the Philippine peso – Asia’s worst performing currency of the year – Asia-Pac’s most actively traded currencies made gains against the US dollar on Tuesday. Although limited, gains were somewhat easy to come by as risk appetite returned after the President of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, held off on formally declaring […]
On Thursday, the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, maintained what many analysts consider to be a dovish stance by leaving interest rates on hold at a record low of 3.0% and by expressing no discomfort with a national currency that has fallen to its weakest levels since 2006. In the hours […]
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region fell against the US dollar on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would raise interest rates again this year and would begin shrinking its balance sheet in October. The Fed funds rate was left unchanged at its current range of 1–1.25%. Although the majority of economists had […]
To the surprise of many, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates on Wednesday to 1.0%, from 0.75%, which sent currencies in the Asia-Pacific region tumbling against the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada had been expected to raise the cost of borrowing again this year, following a quarter-point hike in July, but most analysts […]
Most Asian currencies ended Wednesday higher against the dollar, albeit on a rather unspectacular day of trading. With a few exceptions, markets traded quietly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium (24-26 August) at which Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi might give important updates on monetary policy. The star of the day […]
Fuelled by a return to “risk-on” amid easing geopolitical tensions and ahead of a crucial employment report, the Australian dollar rose broadly and was the currency world’s best performer yesterday. Notable exchange rates include AUD/NZD, which rallied to a fifteen-week high of N$1.087, and AUD/GBP, which rallied to a four-and-a-half-month high of £0.616. A notable […]
The yen fell by nearly a percent yesterday against the US dollar – its biggest one-day fall in six weeks – as investors regained their appetite for risk amid an easing of the tense situation surrounding North Korea. The yen, which has long been considered the FX world’s premier safe haven, typically falls in value […]
“Let’s calm down,” said the governor of the Philippines’ central bank on Sunday as he sought to settle investor nerves following a fall in the Philippine peso to an eleven-year low against the dollar. The peso fell on Friday to 51.14 against USD – a valuation not seen since August 2006 – and has fallen again on […]
Within the past fortnight, the Thai Baht has overtaken the Korean won to become Asia’s best performing currency. The baht’s out performance will, however, be short-lived according to Thailand’s finance minister Apisak Tantivorawong. Even after some small measure of stability in the dollar in recent days, the baht remains up almost 8% against the world’s […]
In an acknowledgement of the Thai baht’s rapid rise against the US dollar this year, deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand, Mathee Supapongse, said this week that Thai companies should consider hedging against future baht appreciation. Against the dollar, the baht has risen 7% so far in 2017, making the currency the second best […]
Headline CPI growth in Australia fell below market expectations on Wednesday, disappointing those seeking reasons for potential RBA hawkishness at their August 1st meeting. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Wednesday morning that consumer prices rose in the second quarter by just 0.2% – down on the market forecast for 0.4% and below […]
Thailand’s baht remains one of Asia’s best performing currencies this year. Against the US dollar, the baht has gained more than 5% in 2017 and is now buying $0.029, putting it back at 2015 levels. Against the Japanese yen, although the baht has gained only half as much in percentage terms as it has against […]
This week the Philippine peso fell against the dollar to levels not seen since September 2006. Recent peso weakness, driven by a deterioration in the state of the Philippines’ current account, finally pushed USD/PHP above the 50.50 resistance level which had kept the exchange rate contained since February. USD/PHP reached highs of 50.72 on Thursday but did […]
The Philippine peso jumped against the US dollar on Friday, forming a strong reversal signal away from the 50.50 level which has kept the USD/PHP exchange rate contained since February. USD/PHP had opened at 50.38 on the week’s final day but fell in each of the Asia, Europe and US sessions to end the week […]
A rally in the US dollar prompted by moderately hawkish Fed speakers pushed emerging market Asian currencies such as the Thai baht, Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit lower on Tuesday. Asian currencies from developed economies but which nonetheless remain second tier and under the “emerging” umbrella, such as the Korean won and the Taiwan dollar, […]
In a decision widely expected by the market, Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), maintained the country’s interest rate at its record low of 1.5% today. In an accompanying statement, the RBA’s Governor, Philip Lowe, said that “annualized GDP growth is expected to have slowed in the March quarter,” but that “growth […]
On Friday, Scotiabank – otherwise known as the Bank of Nova Scotia – outlined four factors that would drive Asian currencies higher in 2017. Investors would “pour funds” into Asian markets on the following grounds: 1) If the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank continue with their stimulus programs, providing “accommodative” levels […]
The Malaysian ringgit has been one of Asia’s worst performing currencies for some time. Between May-2013 and September-2015 the exchange rate for MYR/USD declined from highs at 0.338 to 0.223 – a 34% fall in the currency’s value. Markets gave the ringgit some respite between October-15 and April-16, a period in which the ringgit clawed […]
The team at BMI Research – part of the Fitch group of companies – are maintaining their “slightly bullish” short-term view on the Taiwan dollar, mainly on technical grounds. Over a longer-term, analysts at the firm are also positive on the Taiwanese currency, believing in a “gradual appreciation”, based upon a solid fiscal outlook in […]
In recent days, the Philippine peso has done what other Asian currencies were unable to, and that’s to make gains against the US dollar in an environment of heightened geopolitical risk – an environment normally associated with a sell-off in emerging market currencies. The peso gained again on Monday following up on its superb performance […]