By some margin, the pound was the worst-performing major currency in the second quarter. It slipped in late June to multi-month lows against a number of important currencies, including the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, euro, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc.
Pound valuations will continue to fluctuate based on No-deal, Deal and Remain probabilities. No-deal prospects may increase if, as is widely expected, ardent Brexiteer Boris Johnson becomes the UK’s next prime minister. However, some banks argue that Johnson’s appointment would make little difference to no-deal or remain probabilities.
The pound is unlikely to receive much in the way of meaningful respite until November, analysts say, when hopefully the UK-EU Brexit arrangement, or lack thereof, is known (Boris Johnson insists that the UK will not seek any further Article 50 extensions beyond the October-31 deadline).
The pound would be doing far worse if it weren't receiving some support from the Bank of England which, surprisingly, is the only major central bank still considering higher interest rates in 2019.
For AUD forecasts and predictions read our British Pound Forecasts summary.
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The RBA has cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1 percent in an effort to boost inflation. The Australian dollar is slightly stronger following the widely expected decision but is expected to lose 5–7 percent of its value before year-end.
Last update: 2 Jul, 2019
The British pound was the worst-performing major currency in the April-June period and remains “impossible to forecast” amid a Tory leadership battle that might force “no deal” or a general election.
Last update: 30 Jun, 2019
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