AUD - Recent Performance
Against the US dollar, having climbed to a 28-month high above 0.81 in September, the Australian dollar spent much of the next five weeks losing value. AUD fell roughly three cents by mid-October to 0.782. The Aussie’s year-to-date gain over USD remained close to 9%.
Against the New Zealand dollar, AUD fell back from September’s high of 1.115 to 1.09 by October 17th, but was still up 5% on the year.
In October, Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison expressed no discomfort with the higher valuation of the Australian dollar. Morrison suggested that Australian exporters had adapted to the higher currency.
Morrison’s view differed slightly from that of the RBA, which continued to suggest within its monetary policy statements that it would like to see AUD weaken. At each of its August, September and October meetings, the RBA said that the currency’s higher value “is expected to contribute to subdued price pressures in the economy…[and] is weighing on the outlook for output and employment.”
In September, Dutch bank ABN Amro predicted that AUD/USD would rise to 0.9 by the end of 2018. As reasons for the pair’s climb, ABN cited “strong conviction” on future US dollar weakness, future commodity price rises, an improvement in global trade and potential rate hikes by the RBA.
The long-term technical outlook for the Aussie supports ABN’s view. On the monthly AUD/USD chart, July’s clean break from a crisp triangle (or pennant) pattern suggests higher prices ahead over the next twelve months.