The USD to NGN exchange rate has seen notable developments recently influenced by both U.S. economic factors and local Nigerian conditions. Analysts highlight that the U.S. dollar has strengthened due to reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and positive sentiments surrounding potential trade deals discussed by the Trump administration. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the scope of these deals, which could pose challenges for the dollar's performance in the short term.
The USD currently trades close to 90-day lows at approximately 1529 NGN, around 3.0% lower than its 3-month average of 1576 NGN, reflecting a relatively stable trading range between 1529 and 1610 NGN. This position suggests a cautious trading environment influenced by broader economic sentiments.
In Nigeria, the naira has shown volatility amid ongoing economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and external borrowing requests by the government aimed at revitalizing the economy. The Nigerian economy grapples with a high inflation rate exceeding 23%, which continues to impact the naira's strength. Additionally, the crackdown on money spraying is part of efforts to stabilize the currency.
Oil prices, pivotal for the Nigerian economy, recently rose to about 70.36 USD per barrel, significantly higher than the 3-month average of 67.09 USD. This upward trend in oil prices can bolster the demand for the naira, as increased oil revenue typically enhances foreign reserves and stabilizes the currency.
Overall, while the U.S. dollar's safe-haven appeal and positive macroeconomic indicators contribute to its strength, the performance of the naira will largely depend on effective local economic reforms and fluctuations in global oil prices. Investors should remain vigilant to how these dynamics might alter the USD to NGN exchange rate moving forward.