Author: Joel WrightJoel has been involved in the markets for more than a decade. During this time he’s worked in market analysis teams in London, in the financial technology sector in Singapore, and most recently he’s planned FX hedging strategies for SMEs in Bangkok. Joel currently writes about foreign exchange for several global businesses.
New research from the European Central Bank shows that banks charge smaller customers up to 25 times more for FX forward transactions and that those who fail to compare providers pay 14 times more for FX than those that do.
The Australian dollar is at or near multi-month lows against a number of major currencies in spite of a rampant iron ore market — once a great influence on AUD.
The UK economy is shrinking, as is the pound, which is buying less than 1.12 euros for the first time since mid-January. Investors are becoming increasingly unsettled over Brexit, particularly with Boris Johnson a hot favourite to become the UK's next prime minister.
Investors dumped the US dollar on Friday after US jobs data came in well short of estimates and cemented expectations for lower US interest rates. In the coming months, the greenback might maintain its value based on safe haven inflows and looser monetary policies in other parts of the world.
The number of international money transfers handled by fintech providers in South Korea has grown 2,500 percent in little over a year, the country’s financial regulator has said.
The Australian dollar remains stable in the high US$0.69s following the RBA’s decision on Tuesday to cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1.25 percent.
A “no deal” Brexit remains highly unlikely according to experts at Goldman Sachs and ING, and as such the pound is grossly undervalued and could rise strongly from current levels.
The currencies of Malaysia and Singapore were trading at 6-month lows against the dollar on Wednesday following news that the US had added the Southeast Asian nations to its watchlist of suspected currency manipulators.
This week saw the addition of a group-saving feature in Revolut. “Group Vaults” are an extension of popular Vault functionally that Revolut introduced last year.
The British pound fell on Wednesday for a record thirteenth consecutive day against the euro. The currency is taking a Brexit-induced beating days before May’s half-term school break — a popular time in the UK for family holidays.
Five banks have been fined a collective €1.07 billion by the European Commission for running a “cartel” that manipulated foreign exchange rates for financial gain.
The British pound fell on Wednesday towards a 3-month low against the euro and US dollar as attention turned back to Brexit and after lower-than-expected wage growth lessened prospects for a Bank of England rate hike.
The US-China trade war is hotting up and that’s bad news for the Australian dollar, which slipped on Monday to a 4-month low against the dollar, euro and yen.
The Canadian dollar might be worth considerably more towards the end of this year based on research by Scotiabank analysts who describe the currency as being “egregiously” undervalued.
The RBA left interest rates on hold at 1.5 percent on Tuesday, spurring big gains for the Australian dollar, which had slipped beforehand to long-term lows against several major currencies. Roughly half of economists had expected rates to be cut by 25 basis points.
Seasonal weakness, election uncertainty, strong technical support and oil market complications should be more than sufficient to spur an AUD/INR rally into mid-year.
As in the rest of the world, consumers in Singapore are being fleeced when it comes to foreign exchange costs, a study by TransferWise has revealed. Individuals in Singapore are being charged 15 times more on international payments than companies are, with S$2 billion lost in hidden FX fees annually.
Constructive Brexit talks between UK politicians have imparted a sense of renewed optimism that has lifted the British pound to a 2-week high against the dollar and to a 3-week high against the euro.
Cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technologies that support them are at the forefront of remittance-industry innovations, but these are under attack in India, where a complete crypto ban will be proposed in May.
A turbocharged US dollar is likely to be “stronger for longer” after reaching long-term highs against a host of major currencies, including the euro, Swiss franc and Swedish krona.
The Swiss franc continued its shocking run of form on Tuesday, slipping against the euro to its weakest level in 6 months.
HSBC has reaffirmed its US66¢ year-end forecast for the Australian dollar, thereby signalling an upcoming 8 percent slide in the world’s fifth most traded currency.
What is arguably Southeast Asia’s most important exchange rate, Singapore dollar-Malaysian ringgit, leapt on Thursday to its highest level since November 2017, driven by FTSE Russell’s decision to reconsider Malaysia’s inclusion in an important bond index.
The Australian dollar is forecast to climb to US$0.74 in the coming months, supported by a commodities boom that has seen the price of Australia’s largest export, iron ore, climb to a 5-year high.
With the chance of a 2019 Brexit now reduced to 50 percent, the pound’s value is likely to remain capped for the time being, most likely near US$1.34, experts say. On the downside, US$1.24 is likely should the latest Article 50 extension be used to hold a UK general election.
The euro hasn’t traded as low as US$1.08 since the early portion of 2017, but that’s where we’re heading within the next 3 months, analysts at ANZ believe.
The Australian dollar-New Zealand dollar exchange rate rose on Friday to a 10-week high as traders continue to make bets on monetary policy divergence between the RBA and RBNZ. Even higher rates are expected by teams at TD Securities and Societe Generale.
Research has highlighted the popularity of bitcoin for large payments, including those across borders. By transaction volume, bitcoin has nearly caught up with Mastercard and may in future overtake the market leader, Visa. In the markets, bitcoin’s sudden surge earlier this week is yet to be explained.
Goldman Sachs is backing British MPs to soon find a way through the current political deadlock, after which a “big finish” is expected by the British pound. Meanwhile, pessimism surrounds the Australian and New Zealand dollars, both of which have fallen to multi-week lows.
For much of this year, banks have been betting on further Australian dollar deprecation, but after last week’s RBNZ shocker, they have also given a thumbs down to the New Zealand dollar.
TransferWise is now officially offering PayNow as a funding option for users in Singapore, the company has announced.
The New Zealand dollar plummeted on Wednesday after the RBNZ said its next move on interest rates was likely to be a cut.
Developments this week make a “benign Brexit outcome” the most probable and offer reason enough to be favouring British pound appreciation for the foreseeable future, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have said.
Fintech hotshot Revolut has written to millions of its customers to warn that new verification documents will be needed in the event of a no-deal Brexit; it has also called on the UK government to get serious about post-Brexit tech visas.
Given what should have been obvious advantages, the Australian dollar’s inability to gain against the US dollar last week is an ominous sign that suggests further Aussie depreciation in the near term.
The US dollar crumbled on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2019, thereby backtracking on the two rate hikes it predicted in December.
Amid declining interest, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, or CBOE, has announced it will no longer offer bitcoin futures contracts once current contracts expire in June.
Prospects for the Canadian dollar have turned “considerably to the downside” and the currency is likely to lose 5 percent of its value this year, TD Securities has said.
A slight advance in AUD/USD this week to $0.705 is hardly cause for celebration; however, the stability this represents following 3 weeks of losses would normally signify reduced currency pessimism—in this case, it doesn’t even do that.
The pound fell rapidly away from long-term highs on Tuesday morning after Britain’s Attorney General said that the “legally binding” assurances secured on Monday night by Theresa May merely “reduced the risk” of the UK being trapped in a permanent backstop.
US jobs growth of only 20,000 in February, versus expected growth of 180,000, has allowed rest-of-the-world currencies to claw back ground against the US dollar which, until Friday, had been on a stellar run.
Digital bank Revolut announced this week the introduction of a significant new feature: auto currency exchange based on targeted exchange rates.
Users of popular messaging apps, including WhatsApp and Line, might soon be able to make cross-border payments effortlessly. In a move that will further disrupt the payments industry, the creators of such apps, including Facebook, are working hard to develop their own digital currencies that can be transferred to anyone in a user’s contact list.
Currency traders continue to be wary of the potential for flash crashes during the dreaded “witching hour” between the end of New York’s business day and the start of Tokyo’s. Flash crashes can cause massive losses to those on the wrong side of them and without central bank intervention more of these are on their way.
After a friendless Friday, the Canadian dollar has continued to lose value at the start of the new week. Now worth C$1.332 per USD, the loonie is at a 12-day low, but it has far further to fall if CIBC’s fair value estimation of C$1.4 is anything to go by.
Japanese mega bank MUFG has announced it will end all over-the-counter money transfer services in June of this year in an effort to avert money laundering.
The British pound has hit a 21-month high against the euro following increased speculation of a delayed Brexit and after Britain’s opposition party leader said he would now back a second referendum on EU membership.
Revolut, a digital bank that allows users to receive, send and spend money at the interbank exchange rate, should be ready for its Singapore beta launch in March 2019, the company has said.
The British pound was in high demand on Tuesday ahead of an important meeting between British PM Theresa May and EU officials, at which investors are hoping for a Brexit breakthrough.
Those intending to pick up euros this week should consider heeding warnings offered by MUFG. The bank expects the euro to move towards cheaper levels in the coming days and it would therefore be unwise to pay rates offered on Monday.
Chinese fintech giant Ant Financial has acquired British payments specialist WorldFirst for an undisclosed amount.
The New Zealand dollar leapt on Wednesday in response to the latest remarks from the RBNZ, which said that interest rates in New Zealand would not be lowered this year or next, wrong-footing investors who had adjusted FX positions to account for lower rates.
Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 8-week high on Tuesday after US lawmakers reached an agreement on border security funding and as hopes build for a breakthrough in US-China trade talks.
Cryptocurrencies exploded on Friday for reasons not fully understood by analysts. Litecoin was among the day’s stars, gaining 30 percent. Brokers, though, remain skeptical about the rally’s sustainability.
Further losses on Friday cemented the Australian dollar’s status as the week’s worst performing major currency. Depreciation has been driven by Australia's central bank, which has slashed forecasts for 2019/20 economic growth and signaled it could lower interest rates.
The pound rejected sub-US$1.29 levels on Thursday even after the Bank of England slashed growth forecasts, indicating underlying strength. Analysts say that the pound will rally to buy US$1.40 should Theresa May secure the EU concessions needed to pass her Brexit withdrawal agreement.
With a number of Australian data releases, RBA statements and forecasts on the economic calendar, the Australian dollar is likely to be in the headlines this week, for good or bad.
Canada’s largest crypto exchange, QuadrigaCX, has filed for bankruptcy. Additional bad news for the crypto industry was hardly needed given cryptocurrency prices 80 percent below 2018 peaks. Price predictions are now “pointless,” one analyst says.
The pound is back trading in the US$1.30s after British MPs rejected a proposal to delay the UK’s exit from the European Union, which analysts say increases the likelihood of "no deal."
The Australian dollar was little changed on Tuesday despite what should be AUD-supportive remarks from an RBA board member. The Aussie remains subdued ahead of important inflation data, a Fed meeting and a second round of trade talks between the US and China.
Within recent days, a host of experts have cut forecasts for the Australian dollar, indicating a new wave of pessimism on what is already the past year's worst-performing major currency.
Bitcoin looks “remarkably like a bubble” to the Acting Governor of New Zealand’s central bank, Grant Spencer. Speaking to TVNZ this weekend, Spencer – who will lead the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee until March – said that bitcoin appears to be a “classic case” of a financial bubble. “Over the centuries we’ve seen bubbles and […]
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