Joel has been involved in the markets for more than a decade. During this time he’s worked in market analysis teams in London, in the financial technology sector in Singapore, and most recently he’s planned FX hedging strategies for SMEs in Bangkok. Joel currently writes about foreign exchange for several global businesses.
New research from the European Central Bank shows that banks charge smaller customers up to 25 times more for FX forward transactions and that those who fail to compare providers pay 14 times more for FX than those that do.
The RBA has cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1 percent in an effort to boost inflation. The Australian dollar is slightly stronger following the widely expected decision but is expected to lose 5–7 percent of its value before year-end.
The British pound was the worst-performing major currency in the April-June period and remains “impossible to forecast” amid a Tory leadership battle that might force "no deal” or a general election.
With AUD-THB at a 10-year low, Australians travelling this year to Thailand's wildly popular resorts are facing holiday costs 50 percent higher than those paid in 2012. With exchange rates as they are, those in Oz are choosing better-value destinations.
Lifted by oil, economic data and the Fed, the Canadian dollar has soared against the US dollar to a 16-week high and has reached even more impressive milestones against the pound, euro and Australian dollar.
No longer will Malaysians sending money overseas be subjected to grossly inflated exchange rates and unnecessary bank charges following news that TransferWise has been granted a remittance licence by Bank Negara.
The Australian dollar is at or near multi-month lows against a number of major currencies in spite of a rampant iron ore market — once a great influence on AUD.
The UK economy is shrinking, as is the pound, which is buying less than 1.12 euros for the first time since mid-January. Investors are becoming increasingly unsettled over Brexit, particularly with Boris Johnson a hot favourite to become the UK's next prime minister.
Investors dumped the US dollar on Friday after US jobs data came in well short of estimates and cemented expectations for lower US interest rates. In the coming months, the greenback might maintain its value based on safe haven inflows and looser monetary policies in other parts of the world.
The number of international money transfers handled by fintech providers in South Korea has grown 2,500 percent in little over a year, the country’s financial regulator has said.
The Australian dollar remains stable in the high US$0.69s following the RBA’s decision on Tuesday to cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1.25 percent.
A “no deal” Brexit remains highly unlikely according to experts at Goldman Sachs and ING, and as such the pound is grossly undervalued and could rise strongly from current levels.
The currencies of Malaysia and Singapore were trading at 6-month lows against the dollar on Wednesday following news that the US had added the Southeast Asian nations to its watchlist of suspected currency manipulators.
This week saw the addition of a group-saving feature in Revolut. “Group Vaults” are an extension of popular Vault functionally that Revolut introduced last year.
The British pound fell on Wednesday for a record thirteenth consecutive day against the euro. The currency is taking a Brexit-induced beating days before May’s half-term school break — a popular time in the UK for family holidays.
Five banks have been fined a collective €1.07 billion by the European Commission for running a “cartel” that manipulated foreign exchange rates for financial gain.
The British pound fell on Wednesday towards a 3-month low against the euro and US dollar as attention turned back to Brexit and after lower-than-expected wage growth lessened prospects for a Bank of England rate hike.
The US-China trade war is hotting up and that’s bad news for the Australian dollar, which slipped on Monday to a 4-month low against the dollar, euro and yen.
The Canadian dollar might be worth considerably more towards the end of this year based on research by Scotiabank analysts who describe the currency as being “egregiously” undervalued.
The RBA left interest rates on hold at 1.5 percent on Tuesday, spurring big gains for the Australian dollar, which had slipped beforehand to long-term lows against several major currencies. Roughly half of economists had expected rates to be cut by 25 basis points.
Seasonal weakness, election uncertainty, strong technical support and oil market complications should be more than sufficient to spur an AUD/INR rally into mid-year.
As in the rest of the world, consumers in Singapore are being fleeced when it comes to foreign exchange costs, a study by TransferWise has revealed. Individuals in Singapore are being charged 15 times more on international payments than companies are, with S$2 billion lost in hidden FX fees annually.
Constructive Brexit talks between UK politicians have imparted a sense of renewed optimism that has lifted the British pound to a 2-week high against the dollar and to a 3-week high against the euro.
Cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technologies that support them are at the forefront of remittance-industry innovations, but these are under attack in India, where a complete crypto ban will be proposed in May.
A turbocharged US dollar is likely to be “stronger for longer” after reaching long-term highs against a host of major currencies, including the euro, Swiss franc and Swedish krona.
The Swiss franc continued its shocking run of form on Tuesday, slipping against the euro to its weakest level in 6 months.
HSBC has reaffirmed its US66¢ year-end forecast for the Australian dollar, thereby signalling an upcoming 8 percent slide in the world’s fifth most traded currency.
What is arguably Southeast Asia’s most important exchange rate, Singapore dollar-Malaysian ringgit, leapt on Thursday to its highest level since November 2017, driven by FTSE Russell’s decision to reconsider Malaysia’s inclusion in an important bond index.
The Australian dollar is forecast to climb to US$0.74 in the coming months, supported by a commodities boom that has seen the price of Australia’s largest export, iron ore, climb to a 5-year high.
With the chance of a 2019 Brexit now reduced to 50 percent, the pound’s value is likely to remain capped for the time being, most likely near US$1.34, experts say. On the downside, US$1.24 is likely should the latest Article 50 extension be used to hold a UK general election.
The euro hasn’t traded as low as US$1.08 since the early portion of 2017, but that’s where we’re heading within the next 3 months, analysts at ANZ believe.
The Australian dollar-New Zealand dollar exchange rate rose on Friday to a 10-week high as traders continue to make bets on monetary policy divergence between the RBA and RBNZ. Even higher rates are expected by teams at TD Securities and Societe Generale.
Research has highlighted the popularity of bitcoin for large payments, including those across borders. By transaction volume, bitcoin has nearly caught up with Mastercard and may in future overtake the market leader, Visa. In the markets, bitcoin’s sudden surge earlier this week is yet to be explained.
Goldman Sachs is backing British MPs to soon find a way through the current political deadlock, after which a “big finish” is expected by the British pound. Meanwhile, pessimism surrounds the Australian and New Zealand dollars, both of which have fallen to multi-week lows.
For much of this year, banks have been betting on further Australian dollar deprecation, but after last week’s RBNZ shocker, they have also given a thumbs down to the New Zealand dollar.
TransferWise is now officially offering PayNow as a funding option for users in Singapore, the company has announced.
The New Zealand dollar plummeted on Wednesday after the RBNZ said its next move on interest rates was likely to be a cut.
Developments this week make a “benign Brexit outcome” the most probable and offer reason enough to be favouring British pound appreciation for the foreseeable future, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have said.
Fintech hotshot Revolut has written to millions of its customers to warn that new verification documents will be needed in the event of a no-deal Brexit; it has also called on the UK government to get serious about post-Brexit tech visas.
Given what should have been obvious advantages, the Australian dollar’s inability to gain against the US dollar last week is an ominous sign that suggests further Aussie depreciation in the near term.
The US dollar crumbled on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2019, thereby backtracking on the two rate hikes it predicted in December.
Amid declining interest, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, or CBOE, has announced it will no longer offer bitcoin futures contracts once current contracts expire in June.
Prospects for the Canadian dollar have turned “considerably to the downside” and the currency is likely to lose 5 percent of its value this year, TD Securities has said.
A slight advance in AUD/USD this week to $0.705 is hardly cause for celebration; however, the stability this represents following 3 weeks of losses would normally signify reduced currency pessimism—in this case, it doesn’t even do that.
The pound fell rapidly away from long-term highs on Tuesday morning after Britain’s Attorney General said that the “legally binding” assurances secured on Monday night by Theresa May merely “reduced the risk” of the UK being trapped in a permanent backstop.
US jobs growth of only 20,000 in February, versus expected growth of 180,000, has allowed rest-of-the-world currencies to claw back ground against the US dollar which, until Friday, had been on a stellar run.
Digital bank Revolut announced this week the introduction of a significant new feature: auto currency exchange based on targeted exchange rates.
Users of popular messaging apps, including WhatsApp and Line, might soon be able to make cross-border payments effortlessly. In a move that will further disrupt the payments industry, the creators of such apps, including Facebook, are working hard to develop their own digital currencies that can be transferred to anyone in a user’s contact list.
Currency traders continue to be wary of the potential for flash crashes during the dreaded “witching hour” between the end of New York’s business day and the start of Tokyo’s. Flash crashes can cause massive losses to those on the wrong side of them and without central bank intervention more of these are on their way.
After a friendless Friday, the Canadian dollar has continued to lose value at the start of the new week. Now worth C$1.332 per USD, the loonie is at a 12-day low, but it has far further to fall if CIBC’s fair value estimation of C$1.4 is anything to go by.
Japanese mega bank MUFG has announced it will end all over-the-counter money transfer services in June of this year in an effort to avert money laundering.
The British pound has hit a 21-month high against the euro following increased speculation of a delayed Brexit and after Britain’s opposition party leader said he would now back a second referendum on EU membership.
Revolut, a digital bank that allows users to receive, send and spend money at the interbank exchange rate, should be ready for its Singapore beta launch in March 2019, the company has said.
The British pound was in high demand on Tuesday ahead of an important meeting between British PM Theresa May and EU officials, at which investors are hoping for a Brexit breakthrough.
Those intending to pick up euros this week should consider heeding warnings offered by MUFG. The bank expects the euro to move towards cheaper levels in the coming days and it would therefore be unwise to pay rates offered on Monday.
Chinese fintech giant Ant Financial has acquired British payments specialist WorldFirst for an undisclosed amount.
The New Zealand dollar leapt on Wednesday in response to the latest remarks from the RBNZ, which said that interest rates in New Zealand would not be lowered this year or next, wrong-footing investors who had adjusted FX positions to account for lower rates.
Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 8-week high on Tuesday after US lawmakers reached an agreement on border security funding and as hopes build for a breakthrough in US-China trade talks.
Cryptocurrencies exploded on Friday for reasons not fully understood by analysts. Litecoin was among the day’s stars, gaining 30 percent. Brokers, though, remain skeptical about the rally’s sustainability.
Further losses on Friday cemented the Australian dollar’s status as the week’s worst performing major currency. Depreciation has been driven by Australia's central bank, which has slashed forecasts for 2019/20 economic growth and signaled it could lower interest rates.
The pound rejected sub-US$1.29 levels on Thursday even after the Bank of England slashed growth forecasts, indicating underlying strength. Analysts say that the pound will rally to buy US$1.40 should Theresa May secure the EU concessions needed to pass her Brexit withdrawal agreement.
With a number of Australian data releases, RBA statements and forecasts on the economic calendar, the Australian dollar is likely to be in the headlines this week, for good or bad.
Canada’s largest crypto exchange, QuadrigaCX, has filed for bankruptcy. Additional bad news for the crypto industry was hardly needed given cryptocurrency prices 80 percent below 2018 peaks. Price predictions are now “pointless,” one analyst says.
The pound is back trading in the US$1.30s after British MPs rejected a proposal to delay the UK’s exit from the European Union, which analysts say increases the likelihood of "no deal."
The Australian dollar was little changed on Tuesday despite what should be AUD-supportive remarks from an RBA board member. The Aussie remains subdued ahead of important inflation data, a Fed meeting and a second round of trade talks between the US and China.
The US dollar recorded its largest one-day fall in nearly 3 months on Friday as the attention of traders turned back towards an increasingly cautious Federal Reserve.
Within recent days, a host of experts have cut forecasts for the Australian dollar, indicating a new wave of pessimism on what is already the past year's worst-performing major currency.
The euro is under siege following disappointing data and news this week that Germany barely escaped a recession in 2018. The ECB will now wait longer before raising interest rates, analysts say; however, EUR/USD will still end the year higher. In South Africa, a prediction by the country’s central bank that interest rates will be raised only once before 2021 put an end to the rand’s great start to the year.
The Australian dollar could lose as much as 30 percent of its value if a bold prediction from a BNP Paribas researcher is anything to go by. Prominent risks to the Aussie include a Chinese economic slowdown and a deterioration in Australia’s housing market.
Despite a crushing defeat for Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday night and a motion of no confidence tabled against the British government—which the government survived on Wednesday—the pound is close to multi-week highs. In emerging markets, the Thai baht remains an outperformer.
Ahead of Tuesday’s “meaningful vote” on the Brexit withdrawal agreement, the British pound has strengthened to a 7-week high against the dollar—evidence that investors are increasingly optimistic that a soft Brexit can be achieved.
Late last week, EUR/USD failed to hold gains above $1.15, disappointing traders who had hoped for a big breakout. For 2019, experts still believe in higher EUR/USD rates, although the euro will likely lose value relative to the pound on any soft-Brexit options. In the short term, too, it may be in trouble.
The Australian dollar has rallied strongly following last Thursday’s “flash crash” and, like the Canadian dollar, is expected to outperform its peers in the near term. Investors remain willing to take on risk but the US dollar remains soft. In Asia, the yuan is expected to weaken beyond ¥7 within the next 6 months.
The Singapore dollar weakened on Tuesday but is forecast to be the best performing Asian currency in 2019. In Europe, political uncertainties have driven funds into the Swiss franc, elevating its price. The SNB has re-affirmed its commitment to market interventions, which means EUR/CHF at Fr1.1 will be a difficult nut to crack.
2018 was the year that the bitcoin dream came crashing down. The bubble that many had suspected was building in 2017 was realised and the most well-known of digital currencies lost 80 percent of its value. For 2019, prices might sink as low as $1,500, experts say, but might rally in the second half of the year.
Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar climbed on Friday to an 18-month high as investors sought safer assets in the aftermath of disappointing economic and political developments in Europe and China. Given a growing consensus for dollar weakness in 2019, now might mark an opportune moment for exchanging dollars into foreign currency.
The Australian dollar has offered broad stability in recent days—a welcome change from last week’s sharp decline. The Aussie will likely trade higher over the coming months, Goldman Sachs has said, although anything goes for AUD/GBP on Wednesday as a vote of no confidence in the British Prime Minister takes place.
The British pound was hammered on Monday following news that a House of Commons vote on the proposed EU withdrawal agreement has been cancelled. Against the US dollar, sterling fell to its lowest level since April 2017.
Credit Agricole is seemingly rolling the dice on the British pound ahead of a hugely important vote in the House of Commons on Tuesday—a vote that will likely shape the nature of Brexit. Via the options market, the French bank is betting on an increase in the pound’s value.
The Canadian dollar made widespread gains on Friday after Canada announced its largest increase in employment in 6 years. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell for a fifth day and cryptocurrencies continue downwards. In the absence of more robust earnings growth, traders shouldn’t expect much from the US dollar, CIBC has said.
The Canadian dollar fell sharply following Wednesday’s meeting of the Bank of Canada, at which the Bank appeared to imply that interest rates would rise at a slower pace than previously expected. The loonie will, though, see a great deal of support in 2019, experts have said.
The Australian and New Zealand dollar currencies gapped higher on Monday after the US and China agreed this weekend to suspend new tariffs on goods worth several hundred billion dollars. Meanwhile, bitcoin sank back below $4,000.
The British pound weakened against all major currencies on Thursday, a day after the Bank of England offered a stark warning on Brexit. Under a “no deal” outcome, sterling will lose between 15 and 25 percent of its value, the Bank said.
In a speech on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that US interest rates are close to “neutral.” As a result, the US dollar suffered one of its sharpest intraday falls this year.
In a note to clients this week, CIBC predicted a rise in the Australian dollar to $0.76 by mid-2019. The forecast represents appreciation of 5 percent from Monday afternoon’s quote of $0.724 and will be driven by higher Australian wages, the bank says.
A referendum in Switzerland on Sunday will ask whether Swiss law should take precedence over international laws, particularly those coming from the EU. A vote by the people to take back legislative control would undoubtedly weaken the Swiss franc.
Bitcoin is on its knees, and rather than suggesting, as they once did, massive “high value” buying opportunities, analysts as a collective are becoming increasingly bearish on bitcoin’s future and on non-government-supported digital currencies as a whole.
Weakness in the Australian dollar since Friday is to be short-lived, experts at National Australia Bank have said. A rally in AUD/USD to 0.74 is on the cards, as are politically-driven moves in EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF towards 0.92 and 1.2.
The US dollar slipped last week and is likely to do so again heading into Thursday’s US Thanksgiving holiday. Like the dollar, the Thai baht might weaken once traders have fully digested Monday’s hugely disappointing economic data.
The Australian dollar is benefitting from disarray in Europe and upbeat employment data. The day’s biggest news comes from Europe, though, where the British pound suffered one of its largest intraday declines in recent years following the resignation of the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator.
Bitcoin's near-$800 decline on Wednesday might not have raised an eyelid six months ago, but in what has become a lifeless market of late, the fall is alarming.
Undoubtedly, the speed at which the oil market has reversed has shocked foreign exchange traders as much as it has those in the commodities space. Currencies from economies that depend on oil exports can only do so much amid what is now an energy market rout. With Tuesday bringing a twelfth consecutive day of losses for oil, the Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, Malaysian ringgit and Mexican peso all fell to multi-month lows.
Political risks continue to weigh on the euro, which slipped on Monday to a 16-month low against the dollar. We’ll likely see an even weaker euro later in the week but long-term prospects for the currency look good, analysts say.
The Australian and New Zealand dollar currencies were way out in front this week on the list of top performing FX majors. The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, continues to suffer from what is now a technical bear market in crude oil. Sterling is again under Brexit-related pressure amid reports of potential UK ministerial resignations.
There’s life in the old dog yet. The Philippine peso, a currency that has repeatedly made news for the wrong reasons, is among the best performers of the past month. Respective gains of 3.3 percent and 6.2 percent over the past month against the US dollar and euro have given holders of pesos cause for […]
FX markets lacked volatility on Tuesday ahead of US midterm elections, the results of which will begin to trickle in after 7pm EST. November typically represents the best month of the year for USD and recent losses arguably offer a grab-it-now opportunity to get the currency at improved exchange rates.
Just what the doctor ordered! A 1.3 cent rally on Thursday marked the Australian dollar’s best day since early 2017. A further half-cent gained on Friday morning, prior to the day’s big event, US non-farm payrolls, took AUD/USD to a 5-week high of $0.726. Only a week ago, the struggling Aussie was quoted at a 2-½-year […]
The mood was buoyant in foreign exchange markets on Thursday following news that the UK has achieved a deal with the EU on financial services that would give London’s banks continued access to European markets post-Brexit. Together with the pound, currencies that benefit from the switch to “risk on,” like the Australian dollar and New […]
Developments outside the US allowed for the dollar to appreciate against a basket of currencies to a sixteen-month high on Wednesday. The ICE-maintained US dollar Index, which provides a weighted-mean measure of the greenback’s value against the euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and Swedish krona, traded above 97.0 for the second […]
The Australian dollar is saying “no” to the 70 US cents level as it rallies on Thursday along with Chinese stock markets. The Aussie also continues to appreciate from long-term lows against the pound and euro, and is undervalued against the New Zealand dollar, argues Westpac.
The Canadian dollar received a significant boost on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada said it would “need to raise [interest rates] to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target.” As widely expected, the BoC also hiked its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent. The Canadian dollar strengthened by nearly a […]
The British pound showed resilience on Tuesday in the face of data showing the fastest decline in UK manufacturing orders in three years. Pound uncertainty prevails, however, and a vote of no confidence in British P.M. Theresa May draws closer.
Friday saw the Chinese yuan strike a 21-month low against the dollar of 6.941. A move to and perhaps through 7.0 to the dollar, which remains a symbolic level for many, now seems likely within the next year.
The Australian dollar will have to overcome seasonal weakness to rally from here but a mere 1 percent rise might be all that’s needed to begin a broader recovery, analysts have said. For the US dollar, appreciation is expected heading into year-end but the trend towards de-dollarization continues, this time in Venezuela.
All eyes on Wednesday will be on the meeting between EU leaders and British Prime Minister Theresa May in Brussels, at which some still hope a Brexit deal might be struck. Expect volatility in sterling and euro rates throughout the evening. Meanwhile, the Swedish krona continues to outperform in Europe on expectations for tighter Riksbank policy.
This week’s flight from risky assets, evident from massive losses in equities, has yet to affect the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. The yen is firmer though, bitcoin has finally broken lower and options traders are paying up for protection against future sterling volatility.
As measures of crypto volatility reached long-term lows on Tuesday, a new study from UK-based researchers was released suggesting the future is bleak for bitcoin and the broader crypto industry.
The Brexit-driven EUR/GBP exchange rate opened on Monday at a 3 ½-month low as investors continue to bet on the UK and EU striking a deal. Against the dollar, the euro will be worth as much as 13 percent more next year, according to a new forecast from ING.
Friday’s announcement by the BLS that unemployment in the US has fallen to its lowest level in half a century further firmed expectations for US interest rates and was sufficient to drive the US dollar to fresh long-term highs against currencies throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
In foreign exchange markets, the Australian and New Zealand dollar currencies are highly correlated. Given recent sentiment, it was no surprise, then, to see both make fresh multi-year lows on Thursday. Market commentators see little changing for the Antipodes in the near term.
It’s no time to be brave with your British pounds, think foreign exchange experts at Crédit Agricole. “Stay conservative; avoid GBP,” the bank’s research team wrote on Tuesday. The pound has had a mixed year. As of writing, its 3.9 percent year-to-date loss against the US dollar ($1.299) is balanced by a 5.2 percent gain […]
What started last week as a data and OPEC-driven rally has become something of a rout, with the Canadian dollar battering other currencies again on Monday following news that Canada and the United States, together with Mexico, have finally agreed a trade deal.
UBS has added themselves to a growing list of experts predicting a broad recovery in the Australian dollar. Against the US dollar, the bank is offering a consensus-busting Aussie forecast of $0.82 for 2019 year-end, indicating a 14 percent rise from current levels.
The US dollar was the best of the majors on Thursday—it broke to a nine-month high versus the yen and forced a retreat in the Australian dollar back to the low $0.72s. In Hong Kong, commercial lending rates have been raised for the first time in twelve years, indicating the beginning of the end for cheap money in the region.
The Federal Reserve raised the upper level of US interest rates to 2.25 percent on Wednesday, as widely expected, while also dropping longstanding terminology from its statement relating to the “accommodative” level of monetary policy. The dollar was volatile as a result.
The market for bitcoin is becoming more and more compressed. Bitcoin has been squeezed ever-tighter for much of this year and this stored energy will surely be released at some stage, manifesting in a violent lurch in one direction, up or down. But which way are we heading?
A gain last week of 1.9 percent marked the Australian dollar’s best weekly performance versus the US dollar since December. The Aussie rebound continued with a touch of the $0.73 handle on Friday. Australia’s currency had been worth less than $0.71 just 10 days earlier. It settled for the week at $0.7285. Further to gains […]
The British pound has been sold widely on Friday following Thursday’s comprehensive rejection by EU leaders of the UK’s proposed Brexit deal—the “Chequers” plan. The Chequers plan, which outlines terms for the UK’s departure from the EU and which includes a “combined customs territory” on the Irish border, “would not work,” said European Council President […]
As investors begin playing the long game, they are reconsidering their views on the Australian dollar. An inevitable tightening of Australian monetary policy, most likely next year, will eliminate one of the chief reasons for recent AUD pessimism. What was once a currency worth avoiding might now offer a heavily-discounted bargain.
The US dollar is among the best performing currencies of 2018. In fact, ranked against twenty of the world’s most important currencies, the dollar beats all bar the Mexican peso, the Japanese yen, the Norwegian krone and Swiss franc. Traders are, however, pondering a recent dollar decline. In mid-August, on a trade-weighted basis, the dollar […]
The Russian ruble climbed to a nine-day high on Friday after the Russian central bank surprised markets with a 25-basis-point increase in interest rates. In other news, MUFG are reminding traders not to expect too much from the Canadian dollar upon a US-Canada trade deal, which draws closer.
There was widespread relief among emerging market investors on Thursday after the Turkish central bank finally raised interest rates to protect the embattled lira. Elsewhere, the dollar lost value for a fourth consecutive day and ethereum stabilized after a ten-day fall.
The Norwegian krone was the best performing G10 currency on Monday. The krone benefitted from better-than-expected inflation data and an uptick in European sentiment that followed this weekend’s Swedish election and Michel Barnier's prediction that a Brexit deal will be concluded within 6-8 weeks.
The euro fell sharply against the British pound on Friday after the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he was determined to strike a deal with the UK. A near-perfect Head and Shoulders pattern now indicates a move in EUR/GBP into the high 0.87s.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, has lost 15 percent of its value since Wednesday morning. The crypto bloodbath has also taken 25 percent off ethereum. Dramatic declines began after reports indicated that Goldman Sachs is to scrap plans for a crypto trading desk.
A better-than-expected print for Australian GDP growth was unable to prevent further Australian dollar weakness on Wednesday. After a short-lived jump on the 0.9 percent second-quarter reading (0.7 percent growth expected), the Aussie fell early in the European session to a two-year low of 71.45 US cents. In the hours following GDP, it also lost […]
The rand fell sharply on Tuesday following news that South Africa has entered a recession. The dollar, meanwhile, continues to react favourably whenever the spotlight is turned towards US tariffs and a potential trade conflict with China.
The Australian dollar really doesn’t have much going for it. A 2.2 percent loss between Tuesday and Friday had the Aussie settling for the week at 71.9 US cents, which marked its lowest weekly close since December 2016, and it isn’t doing much better versus the euro, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Perhaps […]
The currency situation in Argentina is becoming desperate. In a single three-hour period on Thursday, the Argentine peso shed 19 percent of its value as it slid to 41.47 to the dollar. The peso had already lost 45 percent since January. With the peso’s spiral downwards, default risk in Argentina moves ever higher, resulting in […]
Bitcoin is finally back above $7,000 and it might now end the year “explosively higher” according to one expert.
The past 24 hours in markets have been dominated by news that the US and Mexico have reached a preliminary trade deal. The Mexican peso initially gained as reports came in but now trades at pre-announcement levels. The Canadian dollar gained handsomely but is set to struggle from hereon in according to Toronto-Dominion Bank.
The Chinese yuan posted its highest open in 4 ½-weeks on Monday, at a rate of 6.803 to the dollar. Stability in the rapidly falling yuan follows the reintroduction of the “counter-cyclical factor” by the People’s Bank of China on Friday – a sign that Chinese authorities are uncomfortable with further depreciation.
It was a cracking week for the euro. Boosted by soft rhetoric from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and confidence-boosting July-meeting minutes from the ECB, the euro gained against all other G10 currencies.
A Reuters survey of investors this week has shown increased bearishness on the Indonesian rupiah, Singapore dollar and Indian rupee. Each of the Asian currencies has lost value this year amid concerns for global trade and following emerging market currency crises in Argentina and Turkey.
The Australian dollar had a shocker on Thursday on the back of domestic political uncertainty. Per reports, current Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is likely to be replaced by Peter Dutton before the week is out.
The US dollar continues to fall from long-term highs. Tuesday marked the fourth consecutive trading day of declines for the Dollar Index, which traded at a fourteen-month high of 97.0 last week. Approaching the end of Tuesday’s European session, the index had slumped into the 95.40s. The dollar was affected for the worse on Monday […]
The Canadian dollar gained across the board on Friday on the back of stunning inflation data that smashed market expectations. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso continues to be this year’s best performing currency; it firmed again on Friday on rumours that Washington would soon agree to a compromise on Mexican farm exports.
FX traders will be thankful for calm in emerging markets on Tuesday after spectacular falls in recent days. While other trends continue unabated, most notably the rising US dollar and falling euro, Westpac are weighing in on the New Zealand dollar, suggesting that an RBNZ cut is now more likely than ever before.
Friday saw bitcoin once again threaten major support at $6,000. According to new research from Yale University, those wanting to get their hands on bitcoin could do a lot worse than waiting for the market to reapproach $7,200.
The US dollar and Japanese yen soared on Friday as traders fled risk-sensitive currencies. Turmoil in emerging market FX is being led by the Turkish lira, which fell 15 percent in twelve hours after President Trump doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium imports.
Entering the second trading week of August, the Canadian dollar remains at or near multi-month highs against many of the world's major currencies. The "loonie" has been well supported since the end of June following a hawkish repricing of Canadian interest rate expectations.
The Australian dollar was the best performing major during Friday’s European session. The “Aussie” rallied by as much as 0.8 percent to rates above 74 US cents after robust Australian economic data.
The US dollar made inroads against most of the world’s currencies on Thursday as trade fears forced investors into safer assets.
Trade tensions were eased on Wednesday after the US announced it had agreed to work towards zero tariffs on “non-auto industrial goods” with the European Union. Unlike equity markets, which rallied strongly on the news, FX markets were little changed on Thursday morning.
Ahead of important trade talks in Europe and Washington, the Mexican peso traded on Wednesday at its strongest level in nearly three months, at 18.7 to the dollar. The peso also rallied to its best level this year versus the euro, at 21.9.
The Turkish lira shed 3.3 percent in a matter of seconds on Tuesday afternoon after the Turkish central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 17.75 percent, defying the market’s unanimous forecast for a 100-basis point hike.
The Japanese yen has been the star performer of recent days and by Monday afternoon in London it was once again trading higher against most of the world’s currencies. When last seen, USD/JPY stood at 111.
The Swiss franc remains overvalued at the current rate of 1.16 francs per euro, said Swiss finance minister Ueli Maurer on Wednesday, but the currency is finally at levels that Switzerland “can live with.”
The yen fell on Monday to two-month lows against the pound and euro, and recovered only slightly from Friday's six-month low against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar surged midway through Tuesday's Asian session after upbeat news on inflation.
Tuesday’s second-quarter inflation data will set the tone for the New Zealand dollar for the rest of the summer, say banks. With inflation risks skewed to the downside, a lower kiwi is more likely than not.
Thursday’s gain of 56 paise over the dollar market the Indian rupee’s best one-day performance since November 2016. The rupee thrived after oil prices plunged on Wednesday.
Traders offloaded Chinese yuan and Australian dollars on Wednesday after the US government said it would introduce 10 percent tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
The Canadian dollar will weaken to 1.35 to the US dollar should the Bank of Canada surprise investors on Wednesday by keeping interest rates on hold, says the latest research report from BNP Paribas.
The Swedish krona is on course for a fourth consecutive day of gains as investors continue to respond with positivity to this week’s revised inflation forecasts.
The Australian dollar may be in line for a double-digit fall into the “mid-60s” versus the US dollar before the summer of next year, says a senior money manager at Pendal Group.
The euro plunged on Thursday and the US dollar had one of its best days in recent memory after two of the world’s most important central banks announced decisions on monetary policy. EUR/USD, now at 1.156, shed 2 percent, marking its biggest one-day decline since the summer of 2016. Offering contrasting messages were the US […]
The South African rand has so far been unable to escape the clutches of a broader emerging markets sell-off that shows no signs of letting up. The rand slid on Wednesday morning to six-month lows against eight of the FX G10 (the exceptions being the yen and Swiss franc) and has now suffered a double-digit […]
The New Zealand dollar will be worth only 64 US cents within the next twelve months, say economists at Westpac.
The euro’s 0.9 percent gain against the dollar last week to 1.1766 marked the end of a seven-week losing spell and offered hope to euro bulls; however, confidence in the single currency would be misplaced, say researchers at Danske Bank, who forecast “limited [euro] upside potential” between now and year-end. The euro remains down more […]
Bitcoin, it would seem, has lost its sparkle. CNBC are reporting that Google searches for “bitcoin” have fallen 75 percent since January – a statistic suggestive not only of a lack of interest in the world’s largest cryptocurrency, but also of a lack of new buyers. At $7,700, bitcoin is trading at a 55 percent […]
The Thai baht may trade at 30 to the dollar early next year, said one of Thailand’s largest banks on Wednesday. Tak Bunnag, head of global markets at the Bank of Ayudhya, predicts that the baht will appreciate to 31.25 per dollar by the end of this year, from levels a shade below 32 at […]
June has, for the past decade, been a month in which the US dollar comes unstuck. Per the Dollar Index (DXY), the dollar has lost value in eight of the past ten Junes, and in one of the two profitable years, holders of dollars would have had to suffer a 3 percent intra-month drawdown to […]
On Friday, the Indian rupee had one of its best days in recent years, with gains of 49 paise and 72 paise against the dollar (₹66.91) and euro (₹78.13) respectively. The rupee was supported after data showed India’s economy growing faster than any other in the world, including China. For USD/INR, now at a one-month […]
The big news for investors on Thursday was Washington’s confirmation that steel and aluminium products reaching the US from Europe, Canada and Mexico – all important allies – would be subject to trade tariffs. Foreign leaders raged against the decision and announced plans for immediate retaliation. On Tuesday, Washington had already announced tariffs on $50 […]
The Canadian dollar jumped on Wednesday following a surprisingly hawkish statement from the Bank of Canada. USD/CAD, which had been trading at levels above 1.3, fell sharply in the two hours following the BoC’s monthly meeting to 1.2835, at which it still trades at the time of this report (17:00 Singapore, GMT +8). The Canadian […]
Of the world’s major currencies, the euro has been among the hardest hit in recent weeks. A sixth consecutive week of losses has seen EUR/USD fall into the mid-1.16s, to a six-month low; EUR/JPY to the mid-127s, to an eleven-month low; and the past fortnight’s fall in EUR/CHF from levels near 1.20 to 1.155 represents […]
It was a busy week for financial markets; one in which central banks disappointed, entire countries were in crisis, new leaders were elected, commodities thrived and Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran. With that said, emerging market currencies were erratic last week, and generally lost value, none more so than the Argentine peso which fell on […]
The New Zealand dollar and Malaysian ringgit dominated the headlines during Thursday’s Asian session; both for disappointing reasons. Holders of New Zealand dollars had to watch their currency drop more than a percent against the US dollar in the hours following the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, to just 69.1 cents – […]
The Australian dollar has been among the hardest hit of major currencies in recent months. Heavy losses since January have been widely reported in the financial press, with most commentaries focusing on the Aussie’s 8.6 percent decline against the
Spare a thought for the Argentine peso. The ill-fated currency of South America’s second largest economy lost 6 percent of its value last week, taking its twelve-month loss to 30 percent. Now at 21.82 per US dollar, the peso is worth less than at any point since Argentina’s fixed exchange rate system was abandoned in […]
It was a disappointing end to the week for the US dollar but enough was achieved between Monday and Thursday for it to record its best week since bubbling over in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election in November 2016. Investors piled into dollars as yields rose amid a massive increase in the supply of […]
Thursday and Friday saw the Swiss franc slide through the symbolic 1.2 per euro level at which the Swiss National Bank capped the franc’s value prior to “Francogeddon” in January 2015. The franc has weakened steadily since it traded at 0.965 per euro in the aftermath of the SNB’s abrupt abolition of the currency cap, […]
The Australian dollar, together with other risk currencies, will likely start next week under pressure following the launch on Saturday morning of air strikes on Syrian weapons research and storage targets by the US, UK and France. The strikes come after a chemical weapons attack in Douma one week ago, which killed an estimated 75 […]
Bitcoin put up its best showing since February last week, as it rose 17 percent to $8,200. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is down 60 percent from December’s highs but remains one of the hottest topics for investment amateurs and professionals alike. One reason for bitcoin’s current strength is, according to analysts, the entrance […]
Scandinavia’s most important exchange rate, EUR/SEK, continues to make new ground for this decade. The rate climbed last week to its highest since 2009, at 10.35, reflecting a grim outlook for the Swedish krona – one in which it wrestles with a dovish central bank and the threat of an international trade war. The krona, […]
In both onshore and offshore markets, the Chinese yuan climbed in the past week to its highest level against the dollar since the summer of 2015, and in doing so, posted its largest quarterly gain in a decade – a gain of 3.7%. Now worth 6.27 per dollar, the yuan’s rise is the result of […]
The Turkish lira’s perpetual decline continues. Friday’s print in the dollar-lira exchange rate of 4.034 marked yet another all-time low in the lira’s value and 2018 is now the sixth calendar year out of the past seven, and the ninth year from the past thirteen, that a record low has been penciled in. The lira […]
Six consecutive weeks of losses for the Hong Kong dollar make it near-inevitable that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will have to defend the currency’s peg at some point in the upcoming week. The Hong Kong dollar, which has been restricted since 2005 to exchange rates between 7.75 and 7.85 per US dollar, weakened on […]
Little has been felt in foreign exchange markets from the UK’s recent political entanglement with Russia, which escalated last week with a tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats. The pound gained last week against both the dollar and euro and will remain steady for the foreseeable future, according to the collective opinion of FX analysts surveyed by […]
Any boost the U.S. dollar might receive ahead of Wednesday’s anticipated Fed rate hike is likely to be offset by the longer-term ramifications of newly introduced U.S. tariffs and Washington’s broader trade policies, thinks the team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Supporting BAML’s belief are the results of the bank’s March survey of sixty-six […]
Fuelled by an improvement in risk appetite and a pick-up in the number of foreign visitors to Thailand, the baht climbed on Wednesday to a four-year high of 31.1 per dollar. In doing so, the baht solidified its position as Asia’s best performing currency of the year. Volatility in the baht had dried up in recent […]
The Australian dollar made sweeping gains last week as investors’ preference for higher-yielding assets trumped a sequence of poor Australian economic data. The currency’s broad climb marked the end of a difficult period that had begun in late January and came as a new poll suggested a lack of FX volatility for the remainder of […]
The Canadian dollar is on course for its worst weekly performance in more than a year as traders reassess their exposure to the currency in response to new US trade tariffs, slower economic growth and a softer oil price. At the end of the Asian business week and with much of Friday’s European session already […]
Among the world’s ten most actively traded currencies, it was the Chinese yuan that was leading the pack approaching the end of the Asian business week. As of 7:30pm in Singapore (GMT+8), the yuan’s marginal 0.2% appreciation for the week to 6.331 per US dollar was enough to seal top spot, with the dollar itself […]
It could hardly have been a worse start to 2018 for the Philippine peso. On Monday, the peso traded at 52.5 per dollar for the first time since the summer of 2006, and year-to-date values show it bettering only the Argentine peso in the list of the world’s worst performing currencies. The peso has lost […]
This week’s much-improved US inflation data has had the desired effect on US rate expectations, with the yield on two-year Treasuries climbing again on Friday, as it did on Thursday, to levels above 2.2%. Meanwhile, prices in derivatives markets have adjusted to indicate a 100% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March. […]
During a week which saw global equity markets suffer their largest losses in two years and broader market volatility pick up, foreign exchange markets were surprisingly calm. A flight to safety benefitted the US dollar, which finished higher against a basket of currencies for the second consecutive week; and the Japanese yen, which at one […]
Bitcoin’s tumble continued on Friday, with the cryptocurrency falling at one stage by fifteen percent to just $7,960 – sixty percent lower than December’s high just shy of $20,000 ($19,891). An afternoon rebound saw bitcoin end the day close to $8,600 but that did little to improve sentiment in the face of scrutiny from regulators […]
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) suffered its worst one-day decline in ten months on Friday in spite of an unexpected acceleration in the rate of core inflation and what appeared to be an upward revision to U.S. interest rate expectations. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that U.S. consumer prices, excluding food and energy, […]
The U.S. dollar was upstaged by its Canadian counterpart on Friday following the release of some spectacular Canadian employment data. Statistics Canada said on Friday that the nation’s unemployment rate fell in December to just 5.7% – the lowest rate in forty years – and that Canadian businesses added 78,600 new jobs. Ahead of the […]
The Canadian dollar climbed on Friday to its highest level in ten weeks on the back of an impressive end-of-year rally in the prices of oil, copper and gold. Other commodities-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar, South African rand and Malaysian ringgit, among others, were also well supported. As WTI crude oil reached a two-and-a-half-year […]
Bitcoin was back below $14,000 on Friday ($13,995) in the wake of new measures from the South Korean government to better regulate the cryptocurrency and warnings from the Indian finance ministry, who likened bitcoin to a “Ponzi scheme.” On Thursday, bitcoin had tumbled more than $1,000 on a statement from the South Korean government in […]
The Philippine peso was best in Asia last week and continues to defy pessimistic forecasts from earlier in the year. USD/PHP’s move to 49.99 on Friday was the pair’s first journey through the psychologically important rate of 50 since June, and a 3.2% appreciation in the peso’s value since November 1st places it second only […]
The Australian dollar is set for a double-digit (11%) fall to just 68 US cents in the coming eighteen months, according to the revised forecast of Australia’s fourth largest bank, Westpac. In a note to clients, the team at Westpac said this week that it sees a fall from Friday’s AUD/USD 3 Month Chart Regular […]
Bitcoin looks “remarkably like a bubble” to the Acting Governor of New Zealand’s central bank, Grant Spencer. Speaking to TVNZ this weekend, Spencer – who will lead the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee until March – said that bitcoin appears to be a “classic case” of a financial bubble. “Over the centuries we’ve seen bubbles and […]
A better-than-expected US payrolls number on Friday affirmed investor expectations for a hike in US interest rates next week and supported the US dollar, which rose against a basket of currencies for a fourth consecutive day. Futures markets are now pricing in a 90.2% probability of the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the […]
Ahead of major announcements in the coming days, investors were in surprisingly good spirits on Wednesday, indicated by a stronger New Zealand dollar, won, rupee and a faltering yen. Weakness in Asia-Pac FX would have been forgiven ahead of Thursday’s announcements by the FOMC (Wednesday in the US and Europe), Bank of England and Donald […]
The South African rand continued its recovery on Tuesday, strengthening to levels close to 14.0 per dollar, following last week’s budget-induced tumble. USD/ZAR had climbed as high as 14.35 on Friday – the rand’s weakest level against the dollar in eleven months – as investors dumped South African assets in response to last week’s mid-term […]
The Russian ruble has been one of the most volatile emerging market currencies in recent years, and it ended this trading week in much the same way. On Friday, USD/RUB’s high-low range ran close to 1.1 rubles, marking the Russian currency’s most volatile session since July. Yesterday’s excitement in USD/RUB was largely the result of […]
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region made sweeping gains against the euro on Thursday night after the European Central Bank announced a cautious approach to the removal of monetary stimulus. Further to a zero percent interest rate, the ECB is currently buying €60 billion worth of assets (bonds) each month, with the goal of keeping eurozone […]
The South Korean won climbed to a seven-week high against the dollar on Wednesday (a USD/KRW low) of 1123.3 after third-quarter GDP data showed South Korea’s economy growing at its fastest pace in seven years. Third-quarter growth of 1.4% was well above the median estimate of 1.0% and an improvement on second-quarter expansion of 0.6%. […]
The hearts of those holding Philippine pesos were broken on Tuesday after the currency slipped to its weakest level against the dollar in more than eleven years. The peso weakened by 33 centavos to 51.85 per dollar. The peso wasn’t alone in falling against the dollar; most Asia-Pac currencies did the same as the greenback […]
As reported on Friday, the Canadian dollar ended last week with its largest one-day drop against the US dollar since January following disappointing economic data. The data signalled to markets that the Bank of Canada would hold steady on interest rates – currently at 1.0% – at its meeting on Wednesday, and the probability implied […]
Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party was the decisive winner in this weekend’s Japanese election, paving the way for a continuation of “Abenomics” and extremely loose monetary policy in the world’s third largest economy. Consequently, the Japanese yen weakened on Monday to levels above 114 per dollar for the first time since July. According to the […]
The Canadian dollar weakened on Friday by the most in nine months against the US dollar after indicators of inflation and consumer activity in Canada fell below market expectations. The “loonie” fell as investors adjusted their portfolios to reflect a lower probability of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates at its October 25th meeting. […]
Holders of New Zealand dollars are still suffering on Friday as the currency continues to fall following last night’s news that New Zealand will be led by a Labour government, with Jacinda Ardern at the helm. In the twenty-four-hour period leading up to 4pm in Wellington, the New Zealand dollar weakened nearly 2.25% against the […]
For Asia-Pac currencies, Thursday’s session was dominated by political nervousness in New Zealand and a busy economic calendar. In terms of data, Japan kicked things off a little before 9am in Tokyo with the country’s latest trade figures. Export growth of 14.1% in the year to September matched market expectations, more or less. Exports have […]
On Tuesday, the Mexican peso had its best day since June and the Canadian dollar rallied after news broke that NAFTA negotiations between the US, Mexico and Canada would be extended into 2018. The peso and “loonie” initially weakened on reports that Mexico and Canada would refuse to yield to US demands and that negotiations […]
The Singapore dollar weakened against the US dollar on Tuesday morning after data showed that non-petro exports plunged 11% in September. Ahead of the data’s release, analysts had forecast an unchanged reading. September’s number means that Singapore’s exports declined on an annual basis by 1.1%, from growth of 16.7% in the year to August. USD/SGD […]
Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison expressed no discomfort with the current valuation of the Australian dollar this weekend. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Morrison said that Australian exporters had adapted to a currency that was now 9.3% higher against the US dollar ($0.7873) and nearly 4% higher against the Chinese yuan (¥ 5.1954) than it […]
The week ahead should be an interesting one for Asian financial markets, with the highlights being China’s 19th National Congress, the latest numbers for Chinese economic growth, the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy meeting and Japanese trade data. Further to that, and to the events outlined below, investors should look with care to Federal Reserve […]
In spite of robust economic data, the Singapore dollar weakened on Friday to 1.354 per US dollar and to 1.604 per euro, from 1.3515 and 1.5992 respectively. Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Friday that preliminary GDP for the third quarter grew by an impressive 6.3%; nearly twice the market forecast of 3.2%. […]
The euro is set to rally against the Swiss franc to levels between 1.18 and 1.20, and perhaps beyond, according to a consensus opinion of bank research teams. The euro ended Wednesday’s New York session buying 1.1542 francs and has so far averaged 1.11 francs in 2017. The driving force for euro appreciation against the […]
With the unsurprising exception of the Philippine peso – Asia’s worst performing currency of the year – Asia-Pac’s most actively traded currencies made gains against the US dollar on Tuesday. Although limited, gains were somewhat easy to come by as risk appetite returned after the President of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, held off on formally declaring […]
The Turkish lira weakened on Monday morning by as much as 4.2% against the dollar after Sunday’s decision by the Turkish government to immediately suspend all non-immigrant visa services at Turkish consulates and embassies in the US. Turkey’s tit-for-tat decision came just hours after the US announced the same thing. Washington said on Sunday that it […]
Wow. What a confusing jobs report. The most important economic data release of the month caused flip-flopping in the US dollar on Friday as a decline in US jobs was offset by solid readings for earnings growth and unemployment. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that non-farm payrolls fell by 33,000 in […]
It’s been a tough twenty-four hours for the Australian dollar. The “Aussie” was hammered after Thursday’s woeful retail sales data, which showed that sales declined in August by 0.6% – the biggest fall in four years. To add insult to injury, previously released data for July was revised down to -0.2%, from 0.0%. AUD/USD has […]
The South African rand is suffering. The rand’s marginal gains on Wednesday against the FX majors did little to mask what has been a horrible month for the currency. Since September 6th, the rand has weakened by 7.6%, 6.3%, 5.0% and 4.2% against the pound (R.18.0), US dollar (R.13.6), euro (R.16.0) and Australian dollar (R.10.65) […]
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy, John Hardy, has added his name to a list of prominent analysts predicting a difficult fourth quarter for the US dollar. On September 27th, ABN Amro expressed its “strong conviction” on future dollar weakness and Nomura reaffirmed its “structural bearish view,” and now, one week later, we have Hardy, […]
At 2:30pm local time (GMT+11) on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest decision on interest rates. No change is expected to the RBA’s cash rate which has been held at a record low of 1.5% since August 2016, and therefore, once again, the spotlight will be shone on the RBA’s accompanying […]
Currencies in Asia have begun the week slowly and also with contrasting performances against the FX majors. Against the dollar, while all of Asia’s ten most active currencies have fallen marginally on Monday morning, many hold slight gains or remain unchanged against the euro. Little movement has been seen against the yen. A mixed bag […]
Like other low yielding currencies, the Japanese yen is set to weaken in the fourth quarter as a rebound in US political sentiment helps the carry trade regain popularity. At least that is the consensus among banks on Friday. “In the near term we favour being long…against low yielding currencies. As such, we favour buying JPY […]
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates on hold at 1.75% on Thursday morning in its first meeting without former governor Graham Wheeler. Grant Spencer, working under the title of ‘Acting Governor’, delivered the bank’s message to financial markets, and it was a message that gave traders little to get their teeth into. […]
Scotiabank analyst Qi Gao pointed on Wednesday to “solid fundamentals” and Thailand’s large current account surplus as reasons for the Thai baht to continue its reign as Asia’s best performing currency. Thailand’s current account surplus is now an impressive 11.5% of GDP and the country’s economy is growing at its fastest pace since 2013, at 3.7%. […]
“We were wrong,” said HSBC’s head of strategy David Bloom as he cancelled the bank’s forecast for the euro to reach parity with sterling this year. For much of 2017, HSBC analysts have been among the gloomiest on sterling with their predictions for continued declines in the currency against both the euro and dollar. Bloom had […]
General elections in New Zealand and Germany have produced uncertain or surprising outcomes and political parties in both countries must now spend the coming days and weeks striking cross-party deals in the hope of forming coalition governments. In New Zealand, the incumbent National Party, led by Bill English, won 58 seats, putting it just shy […]
US ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded the UK’s credit rating from Aa1 to Aa2 over concerns for the future of the UK’s public finances. The ratings outlook is now “stable”, from “negative”. Moody’s stripped the UK of its AAA rating back in 2013. “The outlook for the UK’s public finances has weakened significantly since the […]
On Thursday, the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, maintained what many analysts consider to be a dovish stance by leaving interest rates on hold at a record low of 3.0% and by expressing no discomfort with a national currency that has fallen to its weakest levels since 2006. In the hours […]
Currencies in the Asia-Pacific region fell against the US dollar on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would raise interest rates again this year and would begin shrinking its balance sheet in October. The Fed funds rate was left unchanged at its current range of 1–1.25%. Although the majority of economists had […]
The New Zealand dollar jumped by three-quarters of a percent against many of the majors on Wednesday evening after the latest election poll showed a clear swing in public opinion back towards the incumbent National Party. New Zealand’s general election will take place in three days’ time, on Saturday September 23rd. NZD/USD is now seen […]
In retaliation to US sanctions, in its latest weekly report Venezuela’s oil ministry has published prices for the country’s petroleum products in Chinese yuan, rather than US dollars. One barrel of Venezuelan oil will now cost buyers CNY 306.26 – equivalent to USD 46.76. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, at 300 […]
New forecasts from Dutch bank ABN Amro see continued weakness in the US dollar heading into and throughout 2018. “We have a strong conviction that the US dollar has entered a multi-year downtrend,” said ABN’s Georgette Boele. The dollar will be hardest hit against “growth sensitive and commodity currencies,” according to the bank, which include […]
The British pound rose on Friday to its highest level against the dollar since the UK’s historic ‘Brexit’ vote in June of last year. By lunchtime in London, the pound was buying $1.3616, capping a brilliant fortnight in which it has risen from rates close to $1.29. On minor profit taking, the currency settled back […]
Investors were rattled on Friday morning following the news that North Korea had launched another missile over northern Japan. After traversing the island of Hokkaido, the missile is said to have travelled a further 1200 miles before landing in the Pacific Ocean. The North Korean regime preceded its test with statements that it would “sink” […]
The Malaysian ringgit is set to appreciate against the US dollar to 4.1 by the end of next year’s first quarter, according to the team at BMI Research. The dollar-ringgit exchange rate (USD/MYR) had averaged 4.285 in the months of July and August but has fallen sharply (the ringgit has risen) in the first half […]
The Singapore dollar has begun the week cautiously. Against the US dollar, having risen on Friday to a one-year high of 0.7493, the currency of Asia’s ‘Lion City’ conceded some ground on Monday and Tuesday, with SGD/USD falling back below 0.745. A retreat in the pair was likely given last week’s approach to major technical […]
For the second time in recent months, Hong Kong’s Finance Secretary, Paul Chan, has issued a warning on the country’s housing market. “One has to be very careful if one really wants to buy a property in Hong Kong,” said Secretary Chan on Tuesday morning. “I would not be surprised if there will be a […]
The New Zealand dollar sank on Monday morning against the other FX majors amid uncertainty over New Zealand’s future government and on the back of a continuation in weak sales data. Advanced voting in New Zealand’s general election begins on Monday, ahead of election day on September 23rd, and while polls indicate no clear favourite, […]
The trading week ended as it began, with investors selling the dollar and seeking the safety of the yen and Swiss franc. This time, rather than North Korea, investors have been unnerved by Hurricane Irma – a potentially deadly storm, likely to reach Florida on Saturday evening, that is expected to cause significant economic damage. […]
So much for currency manipulation. The Chinese yuan surged against the US dollar on Thursday, forcing USD/CNY below 6.45 for the first time since December 2015. The dollar had fetched as many as 6.96 yuan in January. The yuan has started September extremely brightly, picking up where August left off. With only five trading days […]
To the surprise of many, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates on Wednesday to 1.0%, from 0.75%, which sent currencies in the Asia-Pacific region tumbling against the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada had been expected to raise the cost of borrowing again this year, following a quarter-point hike in July, but most analysts […]
India’s experiment with “demonetization” has failed according to figures from the country’s central bank. In a shocking decision on November 8th of last year, India’s government demonetized all 500 and 1000 rupee notes (worth USD 7.78 and USD 15.56 respectively), rendering 86% of currency in circulation worthless. Indians were given just four hours’ notice by […]
The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rate at a record low of 1.5% on Tuesday and offered little for AUD bulls to get their teeth into. The bank remains concerned about weak wage growth and elevated levels of household debt. On Australian economic growth – currently at 1.7% – this “will gradually pick […]
The Japanese yen gapped higher on Monday morning following the test of a hydrogen bomb this weekend by North Korea. The bomb was described on North Korean state media as being one of “unprecedentedly big power.” With current sanctions against Pyongyang seemingly insufficient, in response to the latest provocation, US President Donald Trump said that Washington […]
A pick-up in the US manufacturing sector wasn’t enough to offset a weak employment report on Friday and to prevent the US dollar from sliding to a 26-month low against the Canadian dollar. CAD/USD rallied ahead of the release of the US Labor Department’s August data on expectations of a soft report. It then jumped […]
The Indonesian rupiah might soon be getting a long overdue overhaul. A “redenomination bill” has been proposed by Bank Indonesia that would prepare the way to scrap as many as four zeros from the country’s rupiah notes. The bill has gained wide support in government, although the timing of its implementation remains uncertain. Importantly, any redenomination would […]
A better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI failed to lift the yuan or Australian dollar on Thursday morning against a US dollar determined to end the month in the green. The Chinese PMI for the manufacturing sector came in at 51.7 for August, slightly ahead of the market forecast of 51.3 and July’s reading of […]
On Wednesday morning, the Australian dollar-to-New Zealand dollar exchange rate came within three pips of making a sixteen-month high after it finally breached 1.1 – the major technical resistance level in this rate. A rally slightly above 1.1 on March 16th (to 1.1019) was quickly rejected and preceded a three-month decline in AUD/NZD to levels […]
Investors fled to the safety of gold, government bonds and the Japanese yen on Tuesday as geopolitics took centre stage. After North Korea fired a missile over Japan, money flooded into gold, which rallied to a nine-month high of $1,325, and into yen, which strengthened to the low 108s against the dollar. Prices for Treasuries, […]
Asia’s best performing currency, the Thai baht, isn’t done yet, said both Scotiabank and Standard Chartered in recent days. USD/THB, which has fallen (the baht has risen) 7% this year, is set for a further 7% fall to levels around ฿31 in 2018 according to Standard Chartered, from Monday’s exchange rate of ฿33.25. Analysts at […]
The euro rallied strongly on Friday, climbing by more than a percent against the dollar to 1.1941 – the euro’s highest level since January 2015. Against the British pound, the single currency reached levels unseen since October 2009, at 0.9269. Investors and traders rushed into euros after ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech at the Jackson […]
On Wednesday on BestExchangeRates, we highlighted the troubles of the New Zealand dollar and described how the Treasury’s downgrade of economic growth forecasts sent the currency to multi-month lows against several major currencies. We also added this short summary of the kiwi’s outlook and year so far: “The New Zealand dollar has come unstuck in […]
Most Asian currencies ended Wednesday higher against the dollar, albeit on a rather unspectacular day of trading. With a few exceptions, markets traded quietly ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium (24-26 August) at which Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi might give important updates on monetary policy. The star of the day […]
The New Zealand government piled misery onto the New Zealand dollar on Wednesday with its announcement that it had revised downward its forecasts for economic growth this year and next. Treasury officials said that growth for the year to June 2017 would likely come in at 2.6%, from earlier expectations of 3.2%, and have forecast […]
Barclays FX research team have this week reaffirmed their view that the Australian dollar will trade in a flat or downward trend for the rest of this year. As of 2pm GMT on Tuesday, the currency was buying USD 0.792. Barclays believe that markets are yet to price in the Australian dollar risk presented by China’s […]
For a portion of 2017, the South Korean won had been Asia’s best performing currency. Over the past month, it has, however, deviated from what has been a stable path for Asian currencies generally. Between July 27th and Friday’s close, the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and Thai baht rose against the dollar by 1.8%, 1.2% […]
A near-$2 rise in the price of oil supported the so-called ‘commodities currencies’ on Friday, many of which gained close to a percent against the US dollar and made respectable gains against the euro and Japanese yen. Oil’s 3.9% rise to $48.74 per barrel (NYMEX crude futures, September delivery) followed news that US and Canadian […]
It seems not long ago that forecasts for dollar-to-real were in the 4s and 5s. Much has changed however, and despite political uncertainty prevailing in Brazil, the real is now set to move to more expensive levels, at least according to BNP Paribas’ chief Latin America strategist, Marcelo Carvalho. Carvalho believes that the real will strengthen […]
Fuelled by a return to “risk-on” amid easing geopolitical tensions and ahead of a crucial employment report, the Australian dollar rose broadly and was the currency world’s best performer yesterday. Notable exchange rates include AUD/NZD, which rallied to a fifteen-week high of N$1.087, and AUD/GBP, which rallied to a four-and-a-half-month high of £0.616. A notable […]
The yen fell by nearly a percent yesterday against the US dollar – its biggest one-day fall in six weeks – as investors regained their appetite for risk amid an easing of the tense situation surrounding North Korea. The yen, which has long been considered the FX world’s premier safe haven, typically falls in value […]
HSBC and Morgan Stanley are in agreement: The euro will rally to reach parity (1.0) with the British pound within the next 4-8 months. This consensus has been formed after Morgan Stanley this week released their latest forecasts which show EUR/GBP at 1.02 by the end of March next year. HSBC had already publicly forecast […]
“Let’s calm down,” said the governor of the Philippines’ central bank on Sunday as he sought to settle investor nerves following a fall in the Philippine peso to an eleven-year low against the dollar. The peso fell on Friday to 51.14 against USD – a valuation not seen since August 2006 – and has fallen again on […]
The implied probability of a further hike in US interest rates this year declined on Friday to 35%, down from probabilities above 40% one day earlier. This fairly drastic adjustment in market expectations for US rates occurred following inflation data which, remarkably, came in below market expectations for the fifth consecutive month. The US dollar […]
Amid growing tensions between the US and North Korea, investors fled on Thursday to the safety of the Japanese yen, gold and Treasuries. Earlier this week, US president Donald Trump had promised to lay “fire and fury” on North Korea should any attempt be made by the rogue nation to harm the US. Not one […]
On Wednesday, a single explosive hour formed the basis of what became the Hong Kong dollar’s best day since February 2016. A little after 6am in London and 1pm in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong dollar suddenly took off, forcing USD/HKD down from levels around 7.826 to 7.8116. And while a 0.18% move might seem negligible […]
Within the past fortnight, the Thai Baht has overtaken the Korean won to become Asia’s best performing currency. The baht’s out performance will, however, be short-lived according to Thailand’s finance minister Apisak Tantivorawong. Even after some small measure of stability in the dollar in recent days, the baht remains up almost 8% against the world’s […]
Tuesday’s Asian session was stirred by a surprise surge in the Chinese yuan. Starting around 9:30am in Beijing, the yuan began rallying strongly against the dollar, with offshore rates declining (the yuan strengthening) to 6.7024 by 1pm, from rates earlier in the session around 6.73. Onshore yuan easily broke the 6.7 level and as of writing […]
The New Zealand dollar fell back below $0.74 against the US dollar during Monday’s Asian session after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said that respondents in their latest quarterly survey of inflation expectations were more pessimistic than they had been three months ago. Business managers and professionals now see annual inflation running at 1.8% […]
The US dollar ended the week on a high, posting its best day in more than six months following Friday’s solid US employment data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged from levels in the high 92s to the high 93s after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls had risen by 209,000 […]
For much of 2017 it’s been one-way traffic in the market for Hong Kong dollars. USD/HKD rose (the Hong Kong dollar fell) in fourteen of the seventeen weeks prior to July 7th, blowing through the midpoint of its allowed 7.75-7.85 range with ease. The currency had, however, stabilized over much of the past month – […]
As expected by roughly seventy percent of economists, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key interest rate to 6% from 6.25% at Wednesday’s meeting. Four of the six members of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee voted for the change. Interest rates have not been this low in India since 2010. The Indian rupee, […]
Of fifteen economists surveyed by Mint, eleven expect India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at today’s meeting. Of a further fifty-six economists polled by Reuters, forty expect the same. With no unanimous prediction, this makes rupee volatility highly likely before and after the meeting. The announcement […]
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) surprised markets in July when it cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 6.75% – the country’s first rate cut since 2012. Prior to the decision, of the fifty economists polled by Reuters and Bloomberg, only three had predicted a move to lower the cost of borrowing. This rate […]
The IMF said on Friday that the current valuations of the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen are broadly consistent with fundamentals. In its latest External Sector Report – a yearly assessment of currency valuations as they relate to each country’s current account balance, external balance sheet, capital flows and reserves – the IMF said that […]
In stark contrast to the US dollar, which continues to suffer, the Canadian dollar is offering investors nothing but hope at present. The Canadian dollar was the best performing FX major in June and with only one trading day left of the month looks certain to take that crown again in July. Despite taking a […]
The recent plunge in the Swiss franc continued on Friday with the currency falling to new multi-month lows against several of the other majors. Against the euro, Switzerland’s currency fell to an eighteen-month low of €0.88 (EUR/CHF 1.1363). The franc has fallen in near-vertical fashion this week and the pace of its fall has only […]
In an acknowledgement of the Thai baht’s rapid rise against the US dollar this year, deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand, Mathee Supapongse, said this week that Thai companies should consider hedging against future baht appreciation. Against the dollar, the baht has risen 7% so far in 2017, making the currency the second best […]
Headline CPI growth in Australia fell below market expectations on Wednesday, disappointing those seeking reasons for potential RBA hawkishness at their August 1st meeting. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Wednesday morning that consumer prices rose in the second quarter by just 0.2% – down on the market forecast for 0.4% and below […]
Within the past several hours, a scare relating to the New Zealand dairy industry has caused sudden moves in the New Zealand dollar. Between 1:45pm and 2:15pm (Auckland, GMT+12), NZD/USD, NZD/EUR and NZD/JPY each fell by 0.4% – equivalent to falls of roughly 30 pips, 25 pips and 35 pips respectively. The moves happened quickly […]
Early on Monday morning, South Africa’s rand is holding on to Friday’s gains, with USD/ZAR remaining calmly within the low 12.9s. The rand surprised many investors on Friday when it outperformed other emerging market currencies and made back all losses post-Thursday’s surprise rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The central bank lowered […]
The British pound is set to fall by as much as 15% by the end of 2017 according to Guy Petcho of Voya Investment Management. Petcho, who formerly was a part of George Soros’ investing team, said in an interview with Reuters on Friday that a turn for the worse in UK economic growth will […]
Officials at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) said today that they were pushing back the time frame for achieving their 2% inflation target to the end of 2019, marking yet another defeat in the bank’s long-term battle against deflation. When the target was introduced by BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in 2013, it was forecast that […]
The Korean won gained nearly 1% against the US dollar yesterday and by doing so recorded its best day since April. USD/KRW ended the New York session at 1137.4. The move took the won’s 2017 gain against the dollar to 6%. Against the euro, the won gained 1.4% – its best day since November – […]
The New Zealand dollar continued yesterday to retrace its broad May-June uptrend, falling to a one-month low against the British pound and euro, and to a three-month low against the Canadian dollar. NZD/GBP, NZD/EUR and NZD/CAD fell to 0.5583, 0.6293 and 0.9305 respectively. Although the kiwi has fallen across the board in recent weeks, it […]
Thailand’s baht remains one of Asia’s best performing currencies this year. Against the US dollar, the baht has gained more than 5% in 2017 and is now buying $0.029, putting it back at 2015 levels. Against the Japanese yen, although the baht has gained only half as much in percentage terms as it has against […]
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) are in a battle to maintain extreme levels of monetary policy stimulus – a battle which, to win, must necessarily weaken the Japanese yen. On Friday, the yen locked in its fourth consecutive weekly loss against the US dollar, its seventh such loss against the New Zealand dollar, and it […]
Ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls data, the Hong Kong dollar’s fall continues unabated. This week the currency is holding above 7.81 against the US dollar and reached an eighteen-month low (a USD/HKD high) on Monday of 7.8140. Hong Kong dollar weakness continues to be driven by the ever-widening gap between local and US interbank […]
Dutch bank ABN Amro have this week upgraded their forecast for the Indian rupee. The bank now believes that the year will end with the rupee buying 0.0155 US dollars (USD/INR 64.5), and while this is not a significant increase on the rupee’s current valuation at 0.0154 (USD/INR 65.0), it marks a significant upward revision […]
By rallying 6.5% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, the Taiwan dollar so far claims the crown of 2017’s best performing Asian currency. The Taiwan dollar’s rally is likely to have ended however, according to the results of a Bloomberg survey of foreign exchange traders who were asked their views […]
At 04:30 GMT on Tuesday, traders will learn the latest decision on interest rates by Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The decision will also be accompanied by a statement from the bank. While rates are expected to be unchanged at their record low of 1.5%, there is a sense of anticipation […]
With all votes counted, it has been confirmed that Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has been crushed in Sunday’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (TMA) election. The TMA is the prefectural parliament of Tokyo and its members are elected every four years. The LDP, who are led by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, won […]
This week the Philippine peso fell against the dollar to levels not seen since September 2006. Recent peso weakness, driven by a deterioration in the state of the Philippines’ current account, finally pushed USD/PHP above the 50.50 resistance level which had kept the exchange rate contained since February. USD/PHP reached highs of 50.72 on Thursday but did […]
The Malaysian ringgit was Asia’s worst performing currency in 2016, having suffered from a slump in the oil price, a general deterioration in Malaysia’s economic outlook and a far-reaching political and economic scandal involving the country’s Prime Minister, Najib Razak, and billions of lost dollars from Malaysia’s state development fund. With that said, in 2017, […]
“Hedge funds are selling yen this week, and positive comments from Yellen could give them an excuse to sell even more,” said Kaneo Ogino of FX research group Global-Info Co yesterday. Ogino’s comments came at the end of yesterday’s New York session which ended with the yen trading at ¥111.84 against the dollar, marking a […]
The Philippine peso jumped against the US dollar on Friday, forming a strong reversal signal away from the 50.50 level which has kept the USD/PHP exchange rate contained since February. USD/PHP had opened at 50.38 on the week’s final day but fell in each of the Asia, Europe and US sessions to end the week […]
In an interview with CNBC journalists on Thursday, Beat Wittmann of Porta Advisors – a man with more than 30 years of investment experience, including time spent at UBS, Credit Suisse and Julius Baer – expressed his belief that the British pound is set for further significant falls over the coming year as a result […]
To the glee of those holding Australian currency or AUD denominated assets, in recent weeks the Australian dollar has reversed its second-quarter trend. Having fallen almost 5.5% between late March and mid-May, largely because of a tumble in the price of Australia’s largest export, iron ore, the AUD/USD exchange rate has spent much of the […]
“We have to warn our people about the dangerous situation of the property market,” said Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, today. In an interview with Bloomberg’s Haslinda Amin, Chan expressed concern about a potential housing market correction in Hong Kong, which is currently the world’s most expensive city for property. In 2016, Hong Kong […]
A rally in the US dollar prompted by moderately hawkish Fed speakers pushed emerging market Asian currencies such as the Thai baht, Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit lower on Tuesday. Asian currencies from developed economies but which nonetheless remain second tier and under the “emerging” umbrella, such as the Korean won and the Taiwan dollar, […]
On Monday, US ratings agency Moody’s cut its credit ratings on Australia’s four largest banks by one notch to Aa2 from Aa1. The banks – Westpac, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank – retain their “investment grade” status but are no longer top-rated by the agency. Less well known, smaller banks that were downgraded […]
Having been one of Asia’s worst performing currencies for some time, the Malaysian ringgit has turned a corner recently; a small corner, but a corner nonetheless. The ringgit is now clearly trending upwards against the US dollar, albeit on low volatility, and is up nearly 6% since lows in mid-November. One ringgit now buys more […]
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) stuck with the status quo on Friday, choosing to preserve extreme monetary policy stimulus with the goal of boosting Japanese growth and inflation. Inflation, which has been the bane of central bankers in Japan for much of the past two decades, remains low. Statistics Japan said in May that annualized […]
A combination of this morning’s FOMC meeting and weaker than expected GDP data pushed the New Zealand dollar down against a broad group of currencies on Thursday. Data released by Stats NZ on Thursday morning showed that GDP rose 0.5% in the first quarter, which although higher than a 0.4% print in the fourth quarter, was comfortably […]
This morning, investors learned that the Westpac-Melbourne Institute (WMI) survey of Australian consumer sentiment fell last month by 1.8% and remained in “pessimist” territory for the seventh consecutive month. The survey is seen by many analysts as an important gauge of the Australian public’s willingness to spend, which is itself an important driver of the […]
Very early this morning in Asia, Bank of Canada (BOC) Council member Carolyn Wilkins lit a fire under the Canadian dollar with her remarks to an audience at the Asper School of Business in Winnipeg, in which she hinted at a possible rate hike by the BOC. Wilkins said that “as growth continues…the Governing Council […]
On Friday, US ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of South Africa to Baa3 from Baa2 and assigned the country a negative outlook. The rating change concludes a review of South Africa by the agency which began on April 3rd. A Baa3 rating keeps South Africa at “investment grade” with Moody’s, one notch […]
The New Zealand dollar was the best performing of the FX majors in May. By the month’s end, the currency had gained 2.9% against the US dollar, beating a resurgent euro, which gained 2.6%, into first place. The rapid appreciation of New Zealand’s currency, which has been attributed by Citi Bank to improving trade, strength […]
The UK is on course for a hung parliament following yesterday’s general election and the British currency has tumbled to multi-week lows against most currencies. As of 3am GMT, with around half of the votes counted, it looks fairly likely that the ruling Conservative party will win the most seats, but that it will fall […]
Significant exchange rate volatility should be expected on Thursday and Friday with the following major events on the calendar. UK General Election GBP/USD 3 Month Chart On Thursday, British voters will go to the polling stations to vote in their general election. Campaigning in the election has been interrupted by terrorist attacks in London […]
The Australian dollar jumped 0.5% against the US dollar to 0.754 within minutes of this morning’s release of better than expected GDP data. The data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, showed that Q1 GDP grew at 0.3% – slightly stronger than the forecast for 0.2% but a significant fall from growth of 1.1% […]
In a decision widely expected by the market, Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), maintained the country’s interest rate at its record low of 1.5% today. In an accompanying statement, the RBA’s Governor, Philip Lowe, said that “annualized GDP growth is expected to have slowed in the March quarter,” but that “growth […]
Within the past several hours, a story that will no doubt mushroom over the coming days has developed. We have, it seems, the makings of another gulf crisis. Early this morning, four Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia, have announced that they have severed diplomatic ties with Qatar and are acting to close all access […]
The US dollar fell across the board yesterday and the Dollar Index (USDX/DXY) fell to 96.67 – its lowest in nearly seven months – following a highly disappointing US jobs report. For traders, the monthly report, which includes numbers for US non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings growth, as well as the unemployment and participation rates, […]
China’s yuan was Asia’s best performing currency in May. Offshore yuan, which is traded in international financial centres like Hong Kong, Singapore and London, rose 2.3% against the US dollar during the month. And yesterday, the first trading day in June, the yuan rallied again, making further gains of 0.3% and forcing the dollar-to-yuan exchange […]
The Australian dollar fell sharply on Thursday morning, adding to across-the-board losses on Wednesday, as negative economic data from China easily beat positive Australian data in the game for greatest influence, and as iron ore fell to $55 per ton in the NYMEX futures market. As of 03:30 GMT on Thursday, the Australian dollar sits […]
Late on Tuesday night, the British pound fell two-thirds of a cent against the dollar to 1.2789 following results from the latest YouGov poll, which indicate that the UK’s ruling Conservative party will fall 16 seats short of an outright majority and that Britain faces a hung parliament after its general election on June 8th. […]
Of the FX majors, the New Zealand dollar has been the best performer in May. At the end of yesterday’s New York session, with NZD/USD at 0.754, the pair is up 2.9% since May 1st. By comparison, the kiwi’s closest cousin, the Australian dollar, is down 0.5% against the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar […]
On Monday, the South African rand opened sharply higher against the dollar upon Sunday’s late news that several members of the African National Congress party’s top leadership had failed in a bid to remove their party leader and South African president Jacob Zuma. ZAR/USD gapped up to 0.0787 at the open, up 1.2% on Friday’s […]
The Thai baht had its best day yesterday since March and has forced itself to 22-month and 15-month highs against the US dollar and Australian dollar respectively. USD/THB fell by 0.55% yesterday to 34.15, finally breaking the 34.25 level that had held the pair up since April 3rd. And the baht has strengthened again this […]
The Singapore dollar-to-US dollar exchange rate reached six-month highs this morning at 0.7231 following new predictions from Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) that economic growth in the country will exceed 2% this year. “Barring the materialization of downside risks, GDP growth is likely to come in higher than the 2% achieved in 2016,” […]
The Australian dollar has fallen this morning following a downgrade of China’s debt rating by US ratings agency Moody’s. The giant Asian nation has been assigned a new rating of A1 (from Aa3) by the agency on the grounds that its “financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years.” It is the first time […]
As of writing, a little before 5am GMT on Tuesday, the Australian dollar has reached 0.75 versus the US dollar. This psychologically important level will be welcomed by Australian dollar bulls who, more than most, have suffered during the past two months after watching the currency decline from 0.7750 to 0.7328 between March 21st and […]
In the past several hours, the euro has surged following the release of comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has said that the single currency is “too weak” for Germany – weakness which is “due to the ECB’s policy” and which “makes German goods…comparatively cheap.” As of writing at 13:35 GMT, the euro is […]
In Conan Doyle’s Hound of the Baskervilles, the legendary detective Sherlock Holmes solves a crime using his knowledge of what didn’t happen. Specifically, when Holmes learns that the victim’s dog had not barked during the night of the theft of a prized racehorse, Holmes knows that the offender is likely known to the dog – an insight […]
Brazil’s financial markets are in shock following further revelations of bribery and corruption involving the country’s president, Michel Temer. President Temer was yesterday forced to deny newspaper reports that he had discussed paying off a witness in an ongoing corruption investigation. And in a day of full scale political turmoil, two MPs began impeachment proceedings […]
The likelihood of a US rate hike in June is falling fast, as is the US dollar. Just one week ago, the implied probability of the Federal Reserve hiking US interest rates at next month’s meeting – a probability derived from prices in Fed funds futures contracts – stood near 85%. As of Monday, that probability had […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted yesterday that the Australian dollar-to-US dollar exchange rate will fall to 0.7 within 2017 – a move that would mark a near-6% fall from yesterday’s closing rate of 0.7426. Analysts at the bank have come to their conclusion following an in-depth analysis of Australian steel production rates and port […]
The price of WTI crude oil rose by almost a dollar yesterday to $48.79 – it’s sixth daily gain in the past seven – and prices in the futures market for 62% iron ore held above $60 per metric ton, both of which gave a boost to commodities currencies. Oil rallied after energy ministers from […]
In the four-weeks leading up to last Friday’s close (May 12th), the Japanese yen had been one of the world’s worst performing currencies against the US dollar, falling 4.3% within that time. The yen’s weakness during that period marks one hell of a turnaround from the four-weeks immediately prior, in which the yen was one […]
It was a quiet day in markets on Friday. The VIX index closed at 10.4, marginally higher than Monday’s dismal close in the index at 9.8, but remains near to multi-decade lows. Commodities prices – key drivers of CAD, AUD, NZD and emerging market currencies – traded in narrow ranges. US WTI oil traded within […]
The Korean won finally made its move yesterday away from the 1130-to-1140 range against the US dollar. The exchange rate for USD/KRW had been trapped between the two prices for much of the previous ten trading days. At the end of yesterday’s New York session – the traditional end of the FX trading day – […]
The New Zealand dollar has fallen more than a cent against the US dollar following this morning’s RBNZ statement. As expected by the market, New Zealand’s official cash rate was kept at its record low of 1.75%, but the dovish tone of the RBNZ’s accompanying statements has surprised many. “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for […]
Moon Jae-in has today been declared the next president of South Korea. The Democratic Party of Korea candidate won 41.1% of the vote according to the country’s National Election Commission. All of the votes have now been counted. Moon saw off Hong Jun-pyo and Ahn Cheol-soo – the Liberty Party and People’s Party candidates – […]
There is good news for those in the US, Europe, Japan, Singapore, the UK, New Zealand, Taiwan, India, Mexico and just about anywhere at all, and that news is: that the Australian dollar is offering itself up for sale, in a buy 1 get all special. If you’ve always dreamt of cuddling that koala, buying […]
Former Rothschild banker and centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron is the new French president. Macron secured almost precisely two-thirds of yesterday’s vote (66.06%) and, in doing so, easily fended off his competition, Marine Le Pen, who secured one-third (33.94%). At 39, Macron will become France’s youngest ever president. He also becomes the first president since 1958 […]
A rebound in US non-farm payrolls data surprisingly saw the US dollar fall yesterday against all of the other majors, with the exception of the Japanese yen. Yesterday’s headline reading for April of +211k new jobs stood in stark contrast to March’s number of only +75k (revised lower from +98k). March’s figure had missed market […]
Judging by asset prices, investors are no longer concerned about a Marine Le Pen victory in Sunday’s French election. As of writing, at 05:20 GMT on Friday morning, the euro is buying almost 1.1 US dollars (EUR/USD 1.0989) and is at its highest level against the ‘greenback’ since November-9th, the day of Donald Trump’s surprise […]
Yesterday on BestExchangeRates.com, we suggested that now might be the time to change your Australian dollars into Canadian dollars, having seen the Aussie’s buying power reach 6-month highs on Tuesday. Those words now seem prophetic, given what we saw yesterday in Australian dollar exchange rates. The Australian dollar tumbled across the board yesterday, including against […]
Among the FX majors, the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar are considered the most important ‘commodity currencies’, which is to say that the fortunes of each are heavily influenced by changes in the price of commodities or by their respective nation’s ability to sell them. Canada is the world’s sixth-largest oil producer, with oil making […]
Little was expected from today’s RBA announcement, and little was delivered. Interest rates in Australia were kept at record lows of 1.5%. Changes in Australian dollar exchange rates pre and post-RBA have been minimal. As of writing, a little more than three hours after the RBA’s announcements, both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are slightly lower from […]
On Friday, Scotiabank – otherwise known as the Bank of Nova Scotia – outlined four factors that would drive Asian currencies higher in 2017. Investors would “pour funds” into Asian markets on the following grounds: 1) If the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank continue with their stimulus programs, providing “accommodative” levels […]
The Malaysian ringgit has been one of Asia’s worst performing currencies for some time. Between May-2013 and September-2015 the exchange rate for MYR/USD declined from highs at 0.338 to 0.223 – a 34% fall in the currency’s value. Markets gave the ringgit some respite between October-15 and April-16, a period in which the ringgit clawed […]
Japan’s National Core CPI – an inflation reading that strips out volatile food prices – has risen on an annualized basis for the third consecutive month. For the year ending March-17, core CPI grew 0.2%, matching February’s figure and improving on January’s 0.1%. Although the rate of growth appears slight, it is a welcome development […]
The team at BMI Research – part of the Fitch group of companies – are maintaining their “slightly bullish” short-term view on the Taiwan dollar, mainly on technical grounds. Over a longer-term, analysts at the firm are also positive on the Taiwanese currency, believing in a “gradual appreciation”, based upon a solid fiscal outlook in […]
Within the past hour, the Australian dollar has fallen sharply following weaker than expected CPI data. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that consumer prices grew 0.5% in the first-quarter of 2017 and at an annualized rate of 2.1%. AUD/USD fell from 0.7539 to 0.7508 on the news and, as of writing, trades […]
In their latest weekly foreign exchange report, US giant Citi Bank have predicted a rise to 118.0 in USD/JPY in the coming 6-12 months, representing a 7% fall in the dollar buying power of the yen. The yen will depreciate against the dollar as US Treasury yields rebound following future announcements on US fiscal stimulus […]
There’s only one story in town this morning – the battle for Europe’s future, otherwise known as the French general election. As had been predicted for many months, the pro-Europe, centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and the far-right, Eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen have made it through to the head-to-head second round of voting, to take […]
Yesterday, ABN AMRO released their latest FX forecasts for 2017 and 2018. There were few notable revisions, nor was there much in the way of standout predictions, with the exception of one – NZD/USD to rise to 0.80 in 2018. The ‘kiwi’ hasn’t traded at or above 0.80 against the US dollar since October 2014. […]
Consumer prices in New Zealand are rising at their fastest rate in more than five years, said Statistics New Zealand today. CPI rose 1% in Q1, ahead of the market forecast of 0.8% and Q4-2016’s 0.4%. The rise brings annualized inflation to 2.2% – its highest since September 2011. The New Zealand dollar jumped on […]
Described as a “game-changer” by Deutsche Bank, British prime minister Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election was the big story of the day on Tuesday and has reignited sterling exchange rates. For months Theresa May had played down the possibility of an election earlier than 2020. In the eyes of many of […]
The US dollar has started the week lower against most currencies as traders play catch up following market holidays on Friday. In Friday’s market update at BestExchangeRates.com, we described how March’s US core inflation fell month-on-month for the first time in seven years, but with many investors away for the Good Friday holiday, we also […]
Markets ended the week quietly, which was unsurprising given that Canada, Germany, the UK and Switzerland all had public holidays yesterday. What was surprising was the extraordinary miss in Friday’s US inflation data. Combined with soft retail sales figures and last week’s big miss in non-farm payrolls, the US Federal Reserve appear vindicated in what […]
The Thai baht closed higher against the US dollar again on Thursday, ending the day just several pips short of recording its highest close in 21-months. Against the euro, the baht posted its highest close in 23-months. USD/THB and EUR/THB ended the New York session at 34.37 and 36.40 respectively. The baht continues […]
First-quarter data released this morning shows that the Singapore economy has contracted at an annualized -1.9%. The number continues to add to what has become a theme of incredible GDP volatility in Asia’s ‘Lion City’. Annualized GDP growth to the end of Q4 2016 had been a whopping +12.3%, and prior to that, -0.4%. Also […]
The theme in financial markets on Tuesday was, once again, of re-positioning into safe haven assets on heightening geopolitical risk. The day saw North Korean state media warn of a nuclear strike on the US if provoked, which was followed by a tweet from president Donald Trump saying that the rogue nation was “looking for […]
In recent days, the Philippine peso has done what other Asian currencies were unable to, and that’s to make gains against the US dollar in an environment of heightened geopolitical risk – an environment normally associated with a sell-off in emerging market currencies. The peso gained again on Monday following up on its superb performance […]
Despite what has been described by CNBC as a “shocker” of a US jobs report on Friday and a US attack on Syria – a move certain to have geopolitical ramifications – the US dollar ended the week strongly. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell toward 110.10 early in the day on news of […]
Within the past several hours, safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen and gold have jumped, and stocks have fallen, following a US military strike on a Syrian airbase. The launch of fifty Tomahawk cruise missiles from US Navy warships in the Mediterranean Sea was ordered by President Donald Trump. The decision to strike an […]
Short-term EUR/USD traders would have hoped for more from Wednesday’s news and data releases. Investors learned on the day that the Federal Reserve are planning to shrink their balance sheet (akin to monetary tightening) and that a strong employment trend persists in the world’s largest economy (US ADP employment +263k vs. +184k expected). Nevertheless, the […]
The FX markets welcome China back from a two-day holiday on Wednesday, and markets will be hopeful that the Asian giant’s re-introduction, combined with a host of US data, will spark new life into what has been an uneventful start to the FX week. Again yesterday, like the day before, some of the world’s most […]
The Australian dollar has had a tough couple of weeks. Yesterday, against the U.S. dollar the Aussie finished the FX session down for the third consecutive day (its eighth daily fall in the past ten trading days). As of writing, AUD/USD is down again in Tuesday’s Asian session, trading at 0.7591, marking a 2% fall […]
Following last week’s broad strength in the Japanese yen – strength that produced a sharp fall in AUD/JPY from 87.00 to 84.00 – Australian dollar bulls will today be breathing a sigh of relief following the yen’s inability to break further below the 84 handle. At the end of New York’s FX session on Tuesday […]