The current market bias for the USD to IDR exchange rate is bearish. Key drivers include the expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a weaker dollar. Additionally, improving global economic growth and rising commodity prices may add volatility to the USD's performance. Lastly, Indonesia's proactive measures, such as Bank Indonesia's interventions to stabilize the rupiah and targeted inflation rates, support the IDR.
In the near term, the exchange rate may remain in a stable range around recent levels, with slight fluctuations expected from 16,549 to 16,772. Upside risks could arise if the Federal Reserve is slower than anticipated in adjusting interest rates, leading to a stronger dollar. Conversely, downside risks include heightened policy changes from the Indonesian government that could aid the IDR's strength against the USD.
