Forecasts for MYR to INR
The current exchange rate forecast for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) against the Indian rupee (INR) remains under pressure due to a backdrop of escalating trade tensions and weakening regional economic conditions. Recent announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding new tariffs have introduced heightened uncertainty for emerging Asian currencies, including both the MYR and INR. Analysts note that these developments have caused regional currencies to experience significant volatility, and the MYR has been affected by a 24% tariff on Malaysian imports, which has added strain to its economic outlook.
Despite these challenges, the MYR is currently trading at near 90-day highs of 19.82 INR, representing a 1.6% increase above its 3-month average of 19.51. This stability is noteworthy considering the broader trend of currency weakening across the region, with Malaysian and other Asian currencies having previously risen sharply in January. The market has seen the MYR trade within a limited 3.3% range, from 19.19 to 19.82 INR, which underscores some resilience amidst external pressures.
For the INR, the outlook appears mixed as it faces the dual pressures of rising energy prices and the impact of U.S. tariffs. India’s heavy reliance on oil imports exposes it to inflation risks, which can lead to interest rate hikes. Forecasters suggest that the combination of a strengthening U.S. dollar, driven by expectations that Trump’s policies will foster domestic growth, adds further complexity for the rupee. Notably, analysts have indicated that the risks to the INR are "broadly balanced," reflecting both domestic economic fundamentals and external influences.
The recent volatility in oil prices, which have fallen to 90-day lows of around 61.29 USD per barrel—13.2% below the 3-month average—further complicates the situation. This decline poses additional risks for the MYR, given that oil prices directly impact Malaysia's economic health, as it is a significant exporter of crude oil. As both currencies navigate this turbulent environment, market participants should remain vigilant to ongoing developments, particularly how trade negotiations between the U.S. and major economies unfold, as these could have lasting implications for the MYR and INR exchange rate.
