The recent trends in the USD to CLP exchange rate indicate a cautious outlook influenced by both domestic and international economic factors. Analysts have noted that the US dollar (USD) has softened due to a risk-on sentiment in the market and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who has suggested the possibility of further rate cuts. Comments from additional Federal Reserve policymakers are expected, which may contribute to a broadly dovish consensus, potentially exerting further downward pressure on the USD.
On the Chilean side, the Chilean peso (CLP) is being influenced by a decline in core inflation rates, which dropped to 0.3% in March 2025. This moderation in inflation could lead to stable and cautious monetary policy from the Central Bank of Chile, which has maintained the interest rate at 5%. Meanwhile, economic growth forecasts by the OECD project a growth rate of 2.4% for Chile in the coming years, supported by rising real incomes, although global trade uncertainties may temper export growth.
Key geopolitical factors are also at play. The ongoing US-China trade tensions, with the deadline for tariff negotiations approaching, could impact both currencies. Additionally, broader moves towards dedollarization by various countries and the implications of proposed economic measures like the Mar-a-Lago Accord may further complicate the USD's standing as a reserve currency.
Currently, the USD to CLP exchange rate is at 955.5, reflecting a minor decrease of 0.6% below its three-month average of 961.1. The trading range has remained relatively stable, oscillating within a 2.7% band between 947.7 and 973.0. Future movements in this exchange rate will likely depend on the interplay of domestic economic indicators, Fed policy decisions, and international market dynamics.
