USD/UAH Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's steady interest rates contrast with the National Bank of Ukraine’s actions to stabilize the UAH amidst external pressures.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices remain below average, impacting global economic dynamics and keeping risk appetite cautious towards the USD.
• One macro factor: Increased international financial assistance to Ukraine strengthens the hryvnia, but inflation forecasts remain a concern for stability.
Range:
The USD/UAH is likely to drift within the recent 3-month range following a stable trajectory.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant increase in U.S. economic data pushing yields higher could bolster the USD.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions leading to reduced demand for U.S. assets could weaken the USD further.
