The USD to UAH exchange rate currently shows a bearish bias.
Key drivers include:
- The Federal Reserve is likely to implement rate cuts, which could weaken the USD.
- Ukraine anticipates a GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026, potentially stabilizing the UAH.
- Analysts expect the UAH to remain stable against the USD but predict eventual depreciation as it approaches 45 UAH/USD in 2026.
In the near term, the USD/UAH rate may trade within a range that reflects recent highs, given current movements near 42.83, which is above the three-month average of 42.1.
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected economic indicators from the U.S. that could strengthen the dollar. On the downside, any significant negative shifts in Ukraine's economic outlook or geopolitical tensions could lead to a sharper decline in the UAH.
