The USD to UAH exchange rate has recently shown volatility due to several influencing factors. Analysts note that the US dollar has experienced a softening phase, primarily attributed to a correction in broader market trends amidst concerns over an overzealous hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. The anticipation of a potential government shutdown is also contributing to the dollar's weakening momentum. In the near term, without significant US economic data, the dollar's performance is likely to remain tied to wider global market trends.
In the context of USD movements, key market factors include expected inflation data, with analysts predicting a 0.3% rise in core prices, which could impact Federal Reserve decisions. Additionally, ongoing US-China trade tensions and efforts toward dedollarization further complicate the dollar's outlook. Recent news indicates that the U.S. government is pursuing policies that may devalue the dollar while trying to maintain its position as the world’s reserve currency.
On the other side, the Ukrainian hryvnia's exchange rate dynamics are shaped by ongoing economic challenges and policy responses. With the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) planned visit to Ukraine to discuss a new lending program, there may be renewed investor confidence. The National Bank of Ukraine is maintaining its key policy rate at 15.5% to ensure market stability, a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties.
Forecasts from Dragon Capital suggest a controlled and gradual depreciation of the hryvnia in the latter half of 2025, primarily as inflation rates decline and adjustments to the central bank's monetary policy take place. Additionally, government budget projections indicate a long-term expectation for the hryvnia to reach UAH 44.8 per USD by the end of 2026.
Currently, the USD to UAH rate is trading at approximately 42.09, which is 1.4% above its 3-month average of 41.49. It has remained relatively stable within a 3.1% range, indicating potential market consolidation before any significant directional move.
Overall, experts advise monitoring both US economic indicators and Ukraine's developments closely, as they will likely shape future fluctuations in the USD to UAH exchange rate.
