Bias: bullish-to-range-bound because the current level sits above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The US is expected to ease policy toward a neutral stance in 2026 while Ukraine keeps its policy rate high; this split supports a tightly ranged move in USD/UAH as traders weigh faster Fed easing against Ukraine's inflation fight.
- Macro factor: upcoming US payrolls and unemployment data could shift Fed expectations, and a stronger print would push USD higher while softer data may temper it.
Range: within the recent three-month band, the pair is likely to drift toward the upper end but not break away, keeping a narrow corridor unless a surprise event hits.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger US jobs data and firmer signs of a tighter Fed policy would lift USD and push the pair higher within the range.
- Downside risk: softer US data and expectations of quicker Fed rate cuts would pull USD lower and ease pressure on the hryvnia.
