BTC/USD Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows with significant pressure from macro factors.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: Bitcoin lacks the backing of a central authority like the US Dollar has with its Federal Reserve, contributing to its current vulnerability.
• Risk/commodities: The dollar has weakened amid geopolitical tensions, driving investors away from U.S. assets, which has negatively influenced cryptocurrencies.
• One macro factor: The Fed's pause on rate cuts contrasts sharply with ongoing international efforts to de-dollarize, putting further pressure on the USD and consequently affecting Bitcoin's appeal.
Range: Likely to drift lower within its recent range, which is highly volatile and spans from low to high extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Increased mainstream adoption of Bitcoin by major financial institutions could boost its value.
• Downside risk: Heightened geopolitical tensions could prompt further sell-offs in risk assets, including Bitcoin.
