BTC/USD Outlook:
The outlook for BTC/USD is slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways as it is below its recent average and near the lower range of its recent trading activity. This positioning is consistent with its current evaluation under market pressures.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: Bitcoin remains less attractive compared to the strengthening US Dollar, which is buoyed by recent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, attracting global capital.
- Risk/commodities: With the US dollar softening amid a risk-on mood, Bitcoin's volatility may persist as investors search for higher returns outside traditional assets.
- One macro factor: The US labor market is showing signs of strain, with anticipated increases in jobless claims possibly pressuring the dollar and reopening opportunities for Bitcoin.
Range:
Bitcoin is likely to test extremes within its recent trading range, influenced by volatile market conditions.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Positive regulatory developments for cryptocurrencies could boost market confidence.
- Downside risk: Further increases in US interest rates could strengthen the dollar, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin.
