Bias: BTC/USD is bullish-to-range-bound, being above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: USD policy expectations point to easing later this year, while BTC has no central bank, so moves hinge on liquidity and risk appetite, with Fed signals driving volatility.
- Risk/commodities: Crypto market moves are influenced by broad risk appetite and liquidity conditions tied to global commodity and equity moves, with oil and metals typical swing drivers.
- One macro factor: Fed rate-cut expectations for 2026 shape USD liquidity and crypto markets, underlining BTC's sensitivity to US policy shifts.
Range: BTC/USD is likely to drift within the three-month range, with tests of the upper end if risk appetite improves.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A dovish Fed stance or stronger US payrolls that lift risk appetite and crypto liquidity, drawing buyers toward BTC.
- Downside risk: Stronger USD from solid US data or a surprise shift in policy that boosts USD demand, squeezing BTC from the top of the range.
