BTC/USD Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways due to its current position below the recent average and mid-range trading.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: Bitcoin is less influenced by traditional monetary policies than the US Dollar, which is currently affected by a weaker Fed outlook and fiscal concerns.
- Risk/commodities: Recent increases in oil prices have pressured the USD, adding to the currency's volatility.
- One macro factor: The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in 2026, further contributing to USD weakness.
Range: BTC/USD is likely to drift within its recent volatility range, showing potential for fluctuations but lacking strong directional bias.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant surge in institutional investments or adoption could drive Bitcoin prices higher.
- Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions or economic instability could further weaken the USD and lead to increased volatility in the BTC market.
