BTC/USD Outlook:
The BTC/USD rate is currently below its recent average and near recent lows, suggesting a bearish outlook. This downward pressure is primarily due to significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The USD benefits from the strong U.S. labor market, while Bitcoin remains influenced by speculative trading without central bank backing.
- Risk/commodities: Increased safe-haven demand for the USD amid geopolitical tensions, such as potential U.S. military actions, further pressures Bitcoin prices.
- One macro factor: The recent withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs indicate a shift in investor confidence, negatively impacting Bitcoin demand and price.
Range:
Bitcoin is likely to drift within its recent trading range, given its current low position.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Any unexpected regulatory support or positive policy announcements regarding Bitcoin could stimulate demand.
- Downside risk: Continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs could exacerbate downward pressure on its price.
